Trump's Unfavorable Numbers Soar in AP Poll

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Those numbers yield this map:

Clinton 436
Trump 102

TN would definitely stay blue, especially if Trump won TX.

Both would be swing states, but the Clinton campaign would be unlikely to contest TX due the massive resources necessary to do so.  TN is a cheaper pickup.

TX is a huge electoral prize and would severely emasculate the GOP, though .

[Sbane]

If Trump loses by more than 13-14 points, I predict Texas will fall. Texas has a lot of Hispanics who vote Republican because the state party treats them well. That would be one of the areas with the greatest swings to the Democrats. Add that along with the rapid urbanization of the state and we could have Texas vote Democrat.....

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Trump loses by more than 13-14 points, I predict Texas will fall. Texas has a lot of Hispanics who vote Republican because the state party treats them well. That would be one of the areas with the greatest swings to the Democrats. Add that along with the rapid urbanization of the state and we could have Texas vote Democrat.....

Would the Clinton campaign spend any money in TX?  And if not, would it still fall?

[MK]

If Trump loses by more than 13-14 points, I predict Texas will fall. Texas has a lot of Hispanics who vote Republican because the state party treats them well. That would be one of the areas with the greatest swings to the Democrats. Add that along with the rapid urbanization of the state and we could have Texas vote Democrat.....

That California green is amazing isnt it?

[Stranger in a strange land]

"Would you vote for [Candidate]" is classic attack poll language. Elections present a choice. I'm sure at least a few of the "definitely would not" crowd, when faced with the choice between Trump and Atheist Lesbian Communist Obama-Loving Benghazi Traitor Hillary Clinton will choose Trump.

[Wisconsin+17]

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41 among pubbies = 20 percent among the general electorate. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

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41 among pubbies = 20 percent among the general electorate. 

No, he is polling at 41% against Hillary in GE polls.

[Virginiá]

If 63% say they definitely would not vote for Trump, how is he pulling 41% in national polls?

Polling is a science and questions have to be carefully asked in a specific way to try and get accurate information. It's one thing to ask them if they'd vote for Trump, then another to ask them who they would vote for in Trump v Clinton. While they previously said they wouldn't vote for Trump, all of a sudden they are confronted with someone else they may like/dislike. The equation changes at that point.

Also, in this context you probably shouldn't really compare those two questions if they are from different polls.

[ProudModerate2]

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41 among pubbies = 20 percent among the general electorate. 

No, he is polling at 41% against Hillary in GE polls.

The RCP average of polls currently has trump at 38.9% (in a Clinton/trump match-up).
Some of the recent polls, have trump as low as 35 and 36%.
Here is the link to the RCP data page :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

[Alcon]

If 63% say they definitely would not vote for Trump, how is he pulling 41% in national polls?

Polling is a science and questions have to be carefully asked in a specific way to try and get accurate information. It's one thing to ask them if they'd vote for Trump, then another to ask them who they would vote for in Trump v Clinton. While they previously said they wouldn't vote for Trump, all of a sudden they are confronted with someone else they may like/dislike. The equation changes at that point.

Also, in this context you probably shouldn't really compare those two questions if they are from different polls.

Indeed.  It's amazing how fast intraparty opinions change when the question is no longer about "Generic Democrat" or "Generic Republican."