New polls/analysis show weakened GOP brand going into the GE and beyond

[Virginiá]

(I felt like this was a better fit for this board as part of the content below is about future trends and the other about how the current demographic/ideological trends are set to potentially decimate the GOP this November. Also, no one gives a crap about this stuff in the 2016 board)

Survey links/data/abstract:
http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

More comprehensive document explaining impact of new data (obviously somewhat inflated in meaning):
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1029/Dcor_March%20National_Memo_4.1.2016_FOR%20RELEASE.pdf

Slides:
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1029/Dcorps_March%20National_WVWV_4.1.2016_FOR%20PRESS%20CALL%20%282%29.pdf

NewRepublic article about the potential future significance of this data/these trends that have persisted for years now:
https://newrepublic.com/article/132456/americas-political-trends-favor-democrats-2016-beyond


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GOP favorability tanking even more than before
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Congressional ballot polls could already be leaning towards Democrats
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Enthusiasm gap being closed by a repulsive GOP primary race
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Where ever your partisan loyalties lie, it's hard to deny what this data means as these trends have been consistently building up for years now. Trump couldn't have come at a worse time, and having to possibly settle for someone like Cruz will surely stain the party as well on top of their inevitable losses this November.

Their data uses a Clinton v Trump scenario, but is also keen to note that Cruz is not a whole lot better. If you're a Sanders supporter, you can hold your insults in and be happy because whatever Clinton gets here, Sanders likely does even better with most of the same demographics.

The above links, particularly the 2nd link (comprehensive document one) are good reads, and regardless of what you may think about the author/source, the data is not good news for Republicans. You can't maintain those kinds of ratings year after year and expect to continue winning. Bush's slim wins and dumpster fire of a presidency should have been a wake up call to the GOP to adjust to what is fast becoming a completely different, more diverse and more liberal electorate. With this data in mind, the Republican party's decision to swing even further right has got to be one of the worst macro-scale political strategies in modern history.

Thoughts?

[Mike Thick]

Well, if this cycle doesn't knock some sense into them one way or another, I don't know what will.

[Kingpoleon]

Well, if this cycle doesn't knock some sense into them one way or another, I don't know what will.

Agreed.

[5280]

Start a new political party from the ground up.

[RFayette]

Probably going to take another recession for the GOP to get back into power.  We'll see when that happens.

[Virginiá]

Probably going to take another recession for the GOP to get back into power.  We'll see when that happens.

You can rest easy then, because the longer a party controls the White House, the more likely it is that a recession happens on their watch and they catch the blame for it. If Hillary wins 2 terms, then it's very likely (imo) that she will have to deal with some sort of recession, even if only a tiny one.

However, this doesn't change the ideological/demographic trajectory of the country. If Republicans do not adapt to that, then a recession would only be a temporary boost, if that. Simply put, they will need to move back to the center and begin making inroads into the youth vote/non-white electorate to have a chance at the national level. If they wait long enough, demographic changes will also begin to inhibit their success in downballot races as well.

[RFayette]

Probably going to take another recession for the GOP to get back into power.  We'll see when that happens.

You can rest easy then, because the longer a party controls the White House, the more likely it is that a recession happens on their watch and they catch the blame for it. If Hillary wins 2 terms, then it's very likely (imo) that she will have to deal with some sort of recession, even if only a tiny one.

However, this doesn't change the ideological/demographic trajectory of the country. If Republicans do not adapt to that, then a recession would only be a temporary boost, if that. Simply put, they will need to move back to the center and begin making inroads into the youth vote/non-white electorate to have a chance at the national level. If they wait long enough, demographic changes will also begin to inhibit their success in downballot races as well.

True, but while those demographic changes will be very damaging to conservatism, I don't think it will be that tough for the GOP to adapt to.  Eventually, the GOP primary electorate will moderate as the country gets more liberal, and the Dems will also shift to the left (as seen with strong youth support for Sanders).   The question is, what does the GOP moderate on. I think the GOP will always be tough on borders and law enforcement, but it's going to have to elucidate that message in a more moderate tone and hold a softer line on government investment (especially on healthcare, infrastructure, and research/development).

[NHI]

Start a new political party from the ground up.

I think it needs to happen. The party's broke beyond repair...

[Virginiá]

True, but while those demographic changes will be very damaging to conservatism, I don't think it will be that tough for the GOP to adapt to.  Eventually, the GOP primary electorate will moderate as the country gets more liberal, and the Dems will also shift to the left (as seen with strong youth support for Sanders).   The question is, what does the GOP moderate on. I think the GOP will always be tough on borders and law enforcement, but it's going to have to elucidate that message in a more moderate tone and hold a softer line on government investment (especially on healthcare, infrastructure, and research/development).

That's a good point. The party itself seemed ready years ago to adapt, but the base they've been riling up for so long now will not let them.

You're right about their primary electorate mellowing out, though. Millennial Republicans are substantially more moderate than their elders, and once they get some more years under their belt, they will begin to exert more influence than the older voters. However, the problem here is that it is going to take anywhere from 10 - 15 years or more for Millennial Republicans to really even begin to overwhelm the current primary electorate. That is, unless the party makes a concerted effort to bring about such change sooner.

In terms of what to moderate - I think a lot of changes need to be made:

• Drop the culture wars, as they will never win by holding back social change
• Move forward on immigration reform - This really shouldn't even be a problem right now, it's the right thing to do and it would solve their wedge issue problem at least partially with Hispanics
• Stop trying to suppress voting - This means a lot to African Americans, and at this point there is they are only causing long-term problems for such small short-term gains.
• Stop trying to destroy the social safety net - Regardless of what party elites want, this is here to stay. Their voters want these things and the party establishment has somehow tricked themselves into thinking that their voters wanted to eviscerate these services, which couldn't be further from the truth. Their voters have been resistant to giving benefits to people they deem undeserving, which is tripe IMO, but the establishment confused that with cutting benefits for everyone, and it doesn't help them to try

These three I think are some of the most important:

• Stop treating/painting government as the enemy! Government is an institution, made of people and run & managed by people. It can be used for good and trying to sabotage its normal functioning does not help your cause. Demonizing government has gotten them to the point where even their own voters don't trust them. Take for instance, major infrastructure investments are an area where a great majority of people want progress and the GOP is holding it back. It makes no sense to do this.
• Stop being slaves to the business lobby - It's one thing to be pro-business, and another to be entirely subservient to business interests. The GOP has been significantly corrupted by special interests and their voters are fed up. If they continue to encourage this level of corruption, then they are nothing more than a subsidiary of the country's most moneyed interests.
• Stop with the obsession over tax breaks - I'm not saying no more ever (obviously), but the GOP has no solutions anymore. Their solution to everything has become tax breaks. Not only is this strategy wholly ineffective for most issues, but it makes them look bad for a number of reasons. It seems that in their pursuit of destroying government, they have concluded that any sort of meaningful regulations or government services are bad and better replaced with some sort of tax break. This dangerous idea has to stop and they need to realize that you can't just keep cutting taxes every chance you get. They need to get that sometimes raising some taxes is not a bad thing, and at times is necessary. They used to understand this prior to the Republican Revolution, and it's time they go back to their roots.

They can also take some pages from the Bill Clinton / "New Democrat" playbook. If they don't want to change everything so radically, they can moderate for a while until the public warms up to them more, then wait for their chance to bounce back. Though, by no means am I saying return to anything remotely close to their current state. What they are now is, in my eyes, an abomination and needs to be left for dead.

Finally, it's worth noting that a lot of these issues were created by the GOP itself. Their voters were primed over decades to cling to some of these various negative attributes and this itself has made it hard for the party to adapt to a changing world. As we've seen from the Trump phenomena, their voters are far more open to things many would have thought the Republican party viewed as toxic.

[pbrower2a]

(I felt like this was a better fit for this board as part of the content below is about future trends and the other about how the current demographic/ideological trends are set to potentially decimate the GOP this November. Also, no one gives a crap about this stuff in the 2016 board)

Survey links/data/abstract:
http://www.democracycorps.com/National-Surveys/

More comprehensive document explaining impact of new data (obviously somewhat inflated in meaning):
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1029/Dcor_March%20National_Memo_4.1.2016_FOR%20RELEASE.pdf

Slides:
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1029/Dcorps_March%20National_WVWV_4.1.2016_FOR%20PRESS%20CALL%20%282%29.pdf

NewRepublic article about the potential future significance of this data/these trends that have persisted for years now:
https://newrepublic.com/article/132456/americas-political-trends-favor-democrats-2016-beyond


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GOP favorability tanking even more than before
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Congressional ballot polls could already be leaning towards Democrats
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Enthusiasm gap being closed by a repulsive GOP primary race
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Where ever your partisan loyalties lie, it's hard to deny what this data means as these trends have been consistently building up for years now. Trump couldn't have come at a worse time, and having to possibly settle for someone like Cruz will surely stain the party as well on top of their inevitable losses this November.

Their data uses a Clinton v Trump scenario, but is also keen to note that Cruz is not a whole lot better. If you're a Sanders supporter, you can hold your insults in and be happy because whatever Clinton gets here, Sanders likely does even better with most of the same demographics.

The above links, particularly the 2nd link (comprehensive document one) are good reads, and regardless of what you may think about the author/source, the data is not good news for Republicans. You can't maintain those kinds of ratings year after year and expect to continue winning. Bush's slim wins and dumpster fire of a presidency should have been a wake up call to the GOP to adjust to what is fast becoming a completely different, more diverse and more liberal electorate. With this data in mind, the Republican party's decision to swing even further right has got to be one of the worst macro-scale political strategies in modern history.

Thoughts?

On the graph for popularity of the Republican Party: the "40" is roughly the same as it was in the spring of 2010 just before the Tea Party landslide in the House and in the spring and summer of 2014, just before the Republicans took a majority in the Senate and projected themselves to be the majority Party for the next couple decades. They have nearly enough power that if they win big in November 2016 they can marginalize the Democratic Party into near-irrelevance as an impotent opposition limited in authority to a few ultra-safe areas (New England, the West Coast, and giant cities). The lows are not getting significantly lower for the GOP, even if the highs for the GOP are going lower. For Democrats to win much of anything that they lost in 2010 or 2014 they must catch the Republicans in a low (really 40% or lower) in November. For good reason I do not predict political trends unless those have have a basis in demographic change. I got burned in predicting the 2006 and 2008 elections as evidence of American readiness for fundamental change in the political order.

I expect the Republicans to ramp up their usual fear-laden negative campaigns and to bring more political threats to the workplace -- basically that "if you don't want to be laid off, then vote straight Republican".     

[Virginiá]

On the graph for popularity of the Republican Party: the "40" is roughly the same as it was in the spring of 2010 just before the Tea Party landslide in the House and in the spring and summer of 2014, just before the Republicans took a majority in the Senate and projected themselves to be the majority Party for the next couple decades. They have nearly enough power that if they win big in November 2016 they can marginalize the Democratic Party into near-irrelevance as an impotent opposition limited in authority to a few ultra-safe areas (New England, the West Coast, and giant cities). The lows are not getting significantly lower for the GOP, even if the highs for the GOP are going lower. For Democrats to win much of anything that they lost in 2010 or 2014 they must catch the Republicans in a low (really 40% or lower) in November. For good reason I do not predict political trends unless those have have a basis in demographic change. I got burned in predicting the 2006 and 2008 elections as evidence of American readiness for fundamental change in the political order.

I expect the Republicans to ramp up their usual fear-laden negative campaigns and to bring more political threats to the workplace -- basically that "if you don't want to be laid off, then vote straight Republican".    

It's not the specific point it's at now that is important IMO, it's the trend it represents since 2010. Their approval ratings may go up at least somewhat after the nomination is settled, but even in 2014 their approval ratings remained decently lower than that peak in 2010. I think it's without doubt that their brand has sustained damage. To say they will recover back to that 2010 peak, or close to it, seems unlikely if they couldn't do it at any time between Jan 2011 - now.

You have to ask - What happens when they 'steal' the nomination from Trump? There approval ratings are hardly going to fly up. It seems more reasonable to think they would go down even more, given how bitter that would make Trump's base - Which is still significant.

Also, the generic Congressional ballot polls, while fewer at the moment, are more favorable to Democrats this time around - More so than in 2012 and definitely 2014. I'm not saying there will be a wave, but that by all measure, Democratic Congressional prospects look to be better than in 2012, which is a very good thing. Democrat's 2012 Senate performance was more significant than it looked given how many seats they were defending.

Based on everything that has happened in this cycle and the trends I put forth above, I can't see how they would recover/repair their image in time for the general election. Even if they do make good progress, they aren't going to make major gains, if any at all. Absolutely no reliable data lends credibility to such a scenario.

[pbrower2a]

On the graph for popularity of the Republican Party: the "40" is roughly the same as it was in the spring of 2010 just before the Tea Party landslide in the House and in the spring and summer of 2014, just before the Republicans took a majority in the Senate and projected themselves to be the majority Party for the next couple decades. They have nearly enough power that if they win big in November 2016 they can marginalize the Democratic Party into near-irrelevance as an impotent opposition limited in authority to a few ultra-safe areas (New England, the West Coast, and giant cities). The lows are not getting significantly lower for the GOP, even if the highs for the GOP are going lower. For Democrats to win much of anything that they lost in 2010 or 2014 they must catch the Republicans in a low (really 40% or lower) in November. For good reason I do not predict political trends unless those have have a basis in demographic change. I got burned in predicting the 2006 and 2008 elections as evidence of American readiness for fundamental change in the political order.

I expect the Republicans to ramp up their usual fear-laden negative campaigns and to bring more political threats to the workplace -- basically that "if you don't want to be laid off, then vote straight Republican".    

It's not the specific point it's at now that is important IMO, it's the trend it represents since 2010. Their approval ratings may go up at least somewhat after the nomination is settled, but even in 2014 their approval ratings remained decently lower than that peak in 2010. I think it's without doubt that their brand has sustained damage. To say they will recover back to that 2010 peak, or close to it, seems unlikely if they couldn't do it at any time between Jan 2011 - now.

The point going into the election period determines what is possible.  In 2010 right-wing interests heavily pushed the Tea Party revolt against the recent Democratic majorities in Congress and above all our 'exotic' President. Those right-wing interests wanted to intensify right-wing economic trends from when Ronald Reagan was President... and succeeded.

Democrats must win the total vote for the House by about 54-46 to win the House. They got the majority of nationwide votes for the US House in 2012 and still fell neatly short of a House majority due to gerrymandering of Congressional districts.

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The "Establishment" wing of the Republican Party has been extremely unsuccessful in getting its potential nominees to the level of support necessary for nomination. But that wing still controls the Party apparatus. It has gotten its 'profits first, people never' agenda pushed in Congress with the aid of people more opposed to abortion, secularism, feminism, and homosexuality than intent on wage cuts and tax cuts, They were promised an abortion ban, school prayer, creationism, and suppression of 'gay rights' in return for their acquiescence with the Hard Right on economics. The Hard Right got the economic agenda but delivered nothing of the 'social' agenda. For that the Hard Right could still pay a high price in electoral politics.

Donald Trump is a lose-lose proposition for the Hard Right, at least this time. He does not project to win, and he isn't even close to being in position to defeat either Clinton or Sanders. His demagoguery makes him unreliable if President, but should the GOP Establishment swat him down in favor one of their own, then the GOP Establishment demonstrated the heavy hand of its politics. That will offend many moderate-conservative voters who could stay home, vote for a third-party or independent conservative candidate, or even vote for the Democrat this time.   

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I expect the Koch brothers to spend heavily on negative campaigns against any Democrat who can be defeated. Remember their ethos -- no human suffering is excessive if there is a profit to be derived from it.  But these campaigns may become less effective each time. Republicans have a huge number of Senate seats to defend, and defending a large number of Senate incumbents will be costly and tricky.

A Democratic win of a Senate majority doesn't require much of a wave. A Democratic win of the House will indicate a wave. How unpopular must one get to lose a House seat? Think of all those young adults who have some combination of huge student loans and low wages. Such people have no stake in Movement Conservatism that would turn anyone not born into the elite into quasi-serfs. 
 

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Republicans have many ways to achieve electoral disaster. The biggest possible asset that Republicans had going into 2016 was tepid support by America for an incumbent President. Through their bad choices they have frittered that away. 

[Virginiá]

GOP’s Favorability Rating Edges Lower

http://www.people-press.org/2016/04/28/gops-favorability-rating-edges-lower/

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Looks like the GOP brand has taken a large hit over the past 6 months. I'd like to know if this is due to Trump rallying people against the party, or Republicans getting more and more disgusted with Trump and what he is doing. Trump has been running against the establishment since the beginning though, so I'm inclined to think it is more of the latter, but still a combination of the two.

This does not bode well for Republicans in November, which brings me to this...


2016 Generic Congressional Vote

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html



As you can see, the last time the Republican party held a comfortable edge in this poll was last year, prior to Trump. After Trump began his campaign, their ratings have gone down and continue to drop. Because he is more likely than not to be the nominee, it is hard to see these ratings rebounding in any meaningful way. If this keeps up, we could be looking at substantial gains. Even more so if Democrats over-perform the RCP average as they did in 2012.

[youngohioan216]

If the Republicans want to take back the White House anytime soon, they need to develop a moderate DLC-style wing in their party that breaks with traditional GOP thinking on some issues while still remaining identifiably right-of-center.  I think it was Al Gore who said something like "the ideas of the 30's won't solve the problems of the 90's."  There needs to be someone in the GOP who will say that the ideas of the 80's won't solve the problems of the 10's and beyond.  Reagan nostalgia will only get you so far when your identity to most people under 35 or so is the party of George W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz. 

[hopper]

If the Republicans want to take back the White House anytime soon, they need to develop a moderate DLC-style wing in their party that breaks with traditional GOP thinking on some issues while still remaining identifiably right-of-center.  I think it was Al Gore who said something like "the ideas of the 30's won't solve the problems of the 90's."  There needs to be someone in the GOP who will say that the ideas of the 80's won't solve the problems of the 10's and beyond.  Reagan nostalgia will only get you so far when your identity to most people under 35 or so is the party of George W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz. 

Yeah but the problem is Republicans think the demography of the country is currently in 1985. That's the problem. Just listen to Conservative Talk Radio they think the country demographically  is the same one that they graduated High School in the 1970s or 1980's. I graduated HS in 1998 and the Hispanic Population has grown from 12% then to 19% currently. That's a sizeable change in an 18 year span.

[Wisconsin+17]

The problem is that Trump is that moderate wing. And he's going to get nuked in the general.

[Virginiá]

The problem is that Trump is that moderate wing. And he's going to get nuked in the general.

Trump himself is mostly the problem. Some of his positions are desirable to a majority of the public, save for a few like the Muslim ban and the border wall.

As hopper implied (?), the GOP will never recover if they cannot make inroads with minority voters. So far, this looks to be the 3rd straight presidential election where the Republican party has gotten less of the non-white voter than the last election. They are literally approaching single digits, and fast. In a country where non-white voters make up 2% more of the electorate every 4 years, you cannot afford to alienate them like that. Not if you want to win.

So until they moderate more and win over more non-white voters, they will continue to struggle and/or lose.

[Slander and/or Libel]

The problem is that Trump is that moderate wing. And he's going to get nuked in the general.

Trump himself is mostly the problem. Some of his positions are desirable to a majority of the public, save for a few like the Muslim ban and the border wall.

As hopper implied (?), the GOP will never recover if they cannot make inroads with minority voters. So far, this looks to be the 3rd straight presidential election where the Republican party has gotten less of the non-white voter than the last election. They are literally approaching single digits, and fast. In a country where non-white voters make up 2% more of the electorate every 4 years, you cannot afford to alienate them like that. Not if you want to win.

So until they moderate more and win over more non-white voters, they will continue to struggle and/or lose.

And if they moderate, it's not like that's a quick fix. They've been too extreme for too long for them to be able to turn it around in the short term. The longer they continue to alienate non-white voters, the longer it'll take them to win them back once they decide to moderate.

[Heisenberg]

Here's what Republicans really need to do:
Shift towards the center
Heavily town down on LGBT-related issues
Use less extreme, less hateful rhetoric
Stay harsh on crime and pro-security, but tone down
Do NOT alienate large groups of the population
Campaign on fiscal responsibility

This is what they need to win again.

[Matty]

There is very little evidence that the GOP is losng because they don't attract independent/moderate voters.

Democrats are just beating them at turning out the base.

Also, there is not an ounce of evidence that moderate republicans do any better with blacks barring a disastrous dem candidate.

[Virginiá]

There is very little evidence that the GOP is losng because they don't attract independent/moderate voters.

Democrats are just beating them at turning out the base.

Republicans have been essentially quarantined to 1 demographic block: white voters, with younger white Millennials more open to Democrats than older white voters. Republicans are up against a growing population that is heavily Democratic. Big picture-wise, this isn't a turnout problem. They need a lot more new voters, which becomes an issue when they've alienated basically everyone but their own declining base.

[indietraveler]

If republicans can't turn down the rhetoric on some social issues and keep trying to turn back the clock, it's hard to see them getting the WH again. A lot of millennial republicans are more liberal/moderate towards social issues--until this generation controls the republican party I don't see the GOP getting to the WH unless they change now.

.

[hopper]

Here's what Republicans really need to do:
Shift towards the center
Heavily town down on LGBT-related issues
Use less extreme, less hateful rhetoric
Stay harsh on crime and pro-security, but tone down
Do NOT alienate large groups of the population
Campaign on fiscal responsibility

This is what they need to win again.

The only thing I agree with number 3 and 5 in combination on your list especially their rhetoric aimed at Hispanics. Hispanics take that very personally when you say something bad about them.

[hopper]

There is very little evidence that the GOP is losng because they don't attract independent/moderate voters.

Democrats are just beating them at turning out the base.

Also, there is not an ounce of evidence that moderate republicans do any better with blacks barring a disastrous dem candidate.

No base turn out is not them problems its that Dems had a significant lead in party id in both 2008 and 2012 per "gallup party affiliation stats". The Dems only had a 3 and 6 point lead on 2010 and 2014 election days respectively in Party id according to gallup data.