Next countries to legalize Gay Marriage? (after Colombia)

[Blue3]

Colombia legalizes Gay Marriage

... but now the question is, which countries are next?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

First Tier (pretty likely within the next one or two years, or otherwise "inevitable"):

Rest of Mexico, Taiwan, Australia, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Faroe Islands,

Second Tier (by 2020, I'd be surprised if the dominos hadn't fallen)

Greece, Italy, N. Ireland, Austria, Germany, Nepal, Malta, Costa Rica, Estonia

Third Tier: Wild-cards

Japan, S. Korea, Albania, Thailand, Israel (civil marriage would have to be enacted first), Vietnam, Ecuador, Venezuela, Chile (!), Bolivia (would have to be done via constitution though, so rather unlikely), Ecuador (same), Rest of EU, Cuba

[Antonio the Sixth]

Italy is almost there. If PD wins a majority with the new electoral system, Renzi will almost certainly push for it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Third Tier: Wild-cards

Japan, S. Korea, Albania, Thailand, Israel (civil marriage would have to be enacted first), Vietnam, Ecuador, Venezuela, Chile (!), Bolivia (would have to be done via constitution though, so rather unlikely), Ecuador (same), Rest of EU, Cuba

Japan would have to be done via constitution too, and even though there is of course talk of constitutional revision in Japan I doubt this is on Abe's list.

[afleitch]

Japan has the added nuance that many people balk at the idea that any family relationship needs 'state approval' in the first place. And the systems of family registration in place allow round about ways to register gay couples anyway. So Japan needs a naturally Japanese response to this. I think it will get there before South Korea, even though on the surface it should be the other way, because it doesn't have 'grey goo' Christians to contend with at a political level.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

[IceAgeComing]

Second Tier (by 2020, I'd be surprised if the dominos hadn't fallen)

Greece, Italy, N. Ireland, Austria, Germany, Nepal, Malta, Costa Rica, Estonia

I doubt whether Northern Ireland or Estonia will have marriage equality by 2020 - the latter pretty much needs the DUP to change their mind on the thing at least to the point of allowing a majority vote and that's rather unlikely; and although Estonia is one of the better former Eastern Block countries on LGBT rights (definitely behind Croatia, probably also behind the Czech Republic) I don't think that public opinion will have shifted on the issue enough to legalise marriage equality - the Russian population is still very hostile to registered unions, I'd imagine that support for marriage is even lower.  I can't see the Centre Party supporting the thing - if they did then it'd definitely hurt them amongst the Russian minority and that's a huge part of their vote - and I don't think that there'd be enough support among the "Estonian" parties to get the thing through.  I'm pretty sure that Estonia will legislate it before the other two Baltic states though; Latvia has a much larger Russian population and the Latvian population seems to support LGBT rights less than Estonia (although the most recent polling I could find was a Eurobarometer from 2006); while Lithuania has a terrible record on LGBT rights (they are the only EU country to have a Russian-style "propaganda" law) and support for civil partnerships is sub-10% in the most recent polls that I could find.  I think that the latter is a huge shame: that's admittedly because I've been to the place (uni exchange in Klaipeda: really nice city that I'd recommend going to if you're near, nice beaches which surprised me) and thought that it was an incredibly nice place that I'd go to again, and it'd be only made better if they'd make positive steps forward in this area.

Everywhere else on that list seems plausible - I'm pretty sure that it passed majority support in Germany a fair while ago and its just the CDU/CSU holding the thing up, Italy will get it if Renzi gets a good result in the next election, and the others I can't say anything concrete about because I don't know much about them.  If it was not for the referendum a few years ago I think that you could have put Croatia on that list just based on the good stuff that they've done recently; but I think that its very unlikely there for a fair while because they managed to get a ban in the constitution.

[MaxQue]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

As I hope Germany will reannex Prussia, saving productive cities from the backwards, religion-frothing feckless rural masses.

[Figueira]

Huh, I hadn't heard about Colombia. Great news!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

N. Ireland could legalise SSM through a popular vote tbh,

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

As I hope Germany will reannex Prussia, saving productive cities from the backwards, religion-frothing feckless rural masses.

2/10, try harder.

[Figueira]

N. Ireland could legalise SSM through a popular vote tbh,

Really?

[IceAgeComing]

N. Ireland could legalise SSM through a popular vote tbh,

I don't see this happening: in order for that to pass you'd basically need DUP support because of the petition of concern thing and I don't see why they'd support a referendum since there's a very big chance that it'd pass.  Maybe things will move a lot faster in Northern Ireland than I expect (as they have in lots of countries), but I don't see the party of Ian Paisley supporting anything that'd potentially lead towards marriage equality

[Nhoj]

Looks to be that both the candidates in peru in the runoff support civil unions.

[ag]

First Tier (pretty likely within the next one or two years, or otherwise "inevitable"):

Rest of Mexico,

Mexico has legalized last year, a week before the US. The Supreme Court has created an unambiguous jurisprudence that is mandatory for all courts. What remains is a quirk of Mexican law: technically, such jurisprudence has no direct precedent for the executive. So, in states where gay marriage is not legal by law, local authorities may still refuse to register it. In this case the couple in question must go to court, which is obliged to explicitly order that the marriage be registered: that order, unlike the precedent, is binding on the executive.  There is nothing else the courts can do, and it does not seem likely there will be legislative action, either federally or nationally. But, the fact is, every Mexican couple, no matter where it is located, can have their marriage registered and every civil authority in the country can be forced to register it: albeit, under a court order.

[joevsimp]

Not China  (PRC) apparently

China court refuses to allow gay marriage in landmark case

http://gu.com/p/4tac4?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

As I hope Germany will reannex Prussia, saving productive cities from the backwards, religion-frothing feckless rural masses.

I hope both of you would shut up.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Taiwan is set to legalise gay marriage. EPN's proposal to legalise marriage definitively was shot down though.

[Cubby]

Taiwan is set to legalise gay marriage. EPN's proposal to legalise marriage definitively was shot down though.

What is EPN?

In the last year or so I read that Nepal & Cambodia were considering legalizing gay marriage but I doubt its a priority for them.

Germany, Italy & Australia are the chief offenders on this issue.

[Axel Foley]

Our civil unions are practically a marriage called with another name( in full Italian style), but the only real difference stays in the right to adopt still inaccessible to same sex couples( not a little difference, I admit). Besides, lesbians have now full access to IVF, and our "Supreme Court"( Court of Cassation) has admitted the so-called stepchild adoption in particular cases such as theirs, so the legal problems are "only" faced by male gay couples who used the surrogacy in a country allowing so( in Italy is forbidden even for straight couples).

I think that a PD lead-govern after 2018 would fully recognize civil unions as marriages and the same sex couples right to adopt...but it's a big IF.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Taiwan is set to legalise gay marriage. EPN's proposal to legalise marriage definitively was shot down though.

What is EPN?

In the last year or so I read that Nepal & Cambodia were considering legalizing gay marriage but I doubt its a priority for them.

Germany, Italy & Australia are the chief offenders on this issue.

enrique peña nieto

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

In the last year or so I read that Nepal & Cambodia were considering legalizing gay marriage but I doubt its a priority for them.

Nepal's Supreme Court said it needed to be in the draft constitution ages ago, but it seems to have fallen by the wayside.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

Not gonna happen.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

Not gonna happen.

I want to believe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I hope that there will be some countries which will rather delegalize, not legalize.

Not gonna happen.

I want to believe.

Believe in something else.