Explicitly Generic Elections Timeline

[LLR]

Ellison is from Minnesota so he wins 2 counties on the Missouri border. Seems legit.

[Kingpoleon]

Lyon County is a Dean 2004/Obama 2008/Sanders 2016 county.

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SANDOVAL SCORES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE; CHRISTIE QUITS

Senator Brian Sandoval (R-NV) speaks at a rally in Manchester on Tuesday, January 28 after being declared the victor of the New Hampshire Republican primary.

The second contest in the 2020 Republican primary season saw yet another upset Tuesday night, as Senator Brian Sandoval pulled off a narrow victory against former Governor Chris Christie in the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Sandoval, who most pundits expected to place second or third in the New Hampshire contest, ended up with an substantial 21% of support among New Hampshire primary voters, while Chris Christie and Paul Ryan - despite the implication of polling averages - each came in at only around 18%. Nikki Haley and Cory Garnder scored fourth and fifth place with respective 15% and 10% shares of support, while Ted Cruz - who had been leading national polling up to the Iowa caucus - finished in a disappointing sixth place with 7% of the vote.

While Ryan and Cruz - along with Tom Cotton, Jeff Sessions, and Matt Bevin, who each won less than 5% of the final vote - all promised to continue their campaigns, the same could not be said of Chris Christie, who, despite currently holding third place in most national polling, announced the night of the primary that he would suspend his bid for the presidency after a disappointing result in the state many say was key to rebuilding momentum for his campaign. While Christie maintained his desire for "honest and unflinching leadership that can restore our nation to its position as the greatest superpower our world has ever seen," he declined to endorse any of the eight candidates in the Republican field, instead choosing to "wait and see where the primary takes us" before throwing his support behind another contender.

Meanwhile, President Clinton scored another convincing win in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, winning 64% of the vote against four opponents. Finishing in second place was former United States Representative Keith Ellison, who scored 24% of the vote, while third place went to pro-life activist Kristen Day, who received 8%.

Results of the New Hampshire Republican Primary

Brian Sandoval - 21%
Chris Christie - 18%
Paul Ryan - 18%
Nikki Haley - 15%
Cory Gardner - 10%
Ted Cruz - 7%
Tom Cotton - 5%
Jeff Sessions - 4%
Matt Bevin - 2%

New Hampshire Delegate Allocation (22 Total)

Brian Sandoval - 5
Chris Christie - 4
Paul Ryan - 4
Nikki Haley - 3
Cory Gardner - 2
Ted Cruz - 2
Tom Cotton - 1
Jeff Sessions - 1
Matt Bevin - 0

Total Delegate Allocation (1,150 Needed to Win)

Paul Ryan - 10
Ted Cruz - 8
Brian Sandoval - 6
Chris Christie - 6
Tom Cotton - 5
Jeff Sessions - 5
Nikki Haley - 4
Cory Gardner - 4
Matt Bevin - 4
Marco Rubio - 1

Monmouth University Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (January 31)

Paul Ryan - 18% (+1)
Ted Cruz - 12% (-1)
Tom Cotton - 10% (+/-0)
Nikki Haley - 9% (+1)
Brian Sandoval - 9% (+3)
Cory Gardner - 8% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 8% (+1)
Matt Bevin - 4% (+/-0)
Undecided - 22% (+6)

Monmouth University Poll - Utah Republican Presidential Caucus (January 31)

Ted Cruz - 21% (-1)
Tom Cotton - 20% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 17% (+1)
Matt Bevin - 12% (-1)
Paul Ryan - 8% (+1)
Cory Gardner - 6% (+1)
Nikki Haley - 4% (+2)
Brian Sandoval - 4% (+3)
Undecided - 8% (-4)

Monmouth University Poll - South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (January 31)

Nikki Haley - 76 (+2)
Ted Cruz - 4% (-1)
Paul Ryan - 4% (+/-0)
Tom Cotton - 3% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 2% (+/-0)
Cory Gardner - 2% (+1)
Brian Sandoval - 2% (+1)
Matt Bevin - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 7% (-1)

Results of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton - 64%
Keith Ellison - 24%
Kristen Day - 8%
John Wolfe, Jr. - 3%
Randall Terry - 1%

Thoughts on the results? Thanks for reading!

[/]

CRUZ WITHDRAWS AFTER SURPRISE LOSS IN UTAH;
DAUGHTER'S LEUKEMIA DIAGNOSIS

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) announces his withdrawal from the Republican presidential race on February 4 after a surprise loss in the Utah primary to Tom Cotton and his daughter's recent cancer diagnosis.

Two severe blows to the Ted Cruz campaign culminated in the suspension of his campaign last night as Tom Cotton pulled off a surprise victory in the Utah primary and Cruz himself announced his daughter's diagnosis with a rare form of leukemia.

Cruz was largely absent from the campaign trail in the days leading up to the primary, with his daughter's leukemia diagnosis - which was, at the time, unknown - likely preventing him from engaging in most campaign-related activities. On the night of the primary, Cotton escaped with a bare 1% victory over Cruz in popular support, and while Utah's new proportional system of awarding delegates actually ended up returning Cruz to first place in the overall GOP delegate count, the Texas senator announced his decision to withdraw from the race soon after the final results were released.

In his speech after the primary, Cruz thanked his staff and volunteers for an "unwavering commitment to courageous, conservative change in our nation," telling supporters that "America's desire for a stronger, brighter future for all of her children will live on." Shortly before announcing his decision to withdraw from the race, Cruz revealed that his daughter had been diagnosed with a rare form of acute lymphocytic leukemia, indicating that "after a period of prayer and contemplation, Heidi and I have decided that the best decision for our family is to no longer move forward with this campaign and instead focus on the thing that matters most, our family."

According to most political pundits, Cruz's withdrawal from the race will likely come to the advantage of Tom Cotton, who shares a similar base of supporters with the Texas senator. While Cruz has not given an explicit endorsement of Cotton, he has made a number of statements in favor of Cotton's campaign, indicating that good news could be in store for Arkansas senator during the upcoming primaries on Super Tuesday and throughout March.

Meanwhile, President Clinton barely escaped with a victory in Utah against former United States Representative Keith Ellison, garnering only 54% of the vote in the Democratic primary to Ellison's 46%. In a Facebook Live session after the primary, Ellison promised his supporters to "keep on fighting" for a victory against Clinton, asserting that "such a close result here in the great state of Utah assures us that the primary is nowhere near over."

Results of the Utah Republican Primary

Tom Cotton - 22%
Ted Cruz - 21%
Jeff Sessions - 17%
Matt Bevin - 14%
Paul Ryan - 9%
Brian Sandoval - 7%
Cory Gardner - 6%
Nikki Haley - 4%
Undecided - 8%

Utah Delegate Allocation (31 Total)

Brian Sandoval - 2
Paul Ryan - 3
Nikki Haley - 1
Cory Gardner - 2
Ted Cruz - 7
Tom Cotton - 7
Jeff Sessions - 5
Matt Bevin - 4

Total Delegate Allocation (1,150 Needed to Win)

Ted Cruz - 15
Paul Ryan - 13
Tom Cotton - 12
Jeff Sessions - 10
Brian Sandoval - 8
Matt Bevin - 8
Cory Gardner - 6
Chris Christie - 6
Nikki Haley - 5
Marco Rubio - 1

CBS News/New York Times Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (February 6)

Paul Ryan - 20% (+2)
Tom Cotton - 18% (+8)
Brian Sandoval - 10% (+1)
Nikki Haley - 9% (+/-0)
Cory Gardner - 8% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 8% (+/-0)
Matt Bevin - 5% (+1)
Undecided - 22% (+/-0)

CBS News/New York Times Poll - South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (February 6)

Nikki Haley - 76 (+/-0)
Paul Ryan - 5% (+1)
Tom Cotton - 5% (+2)
Brian Sandoval - 3% (+1)
Jeff Sessions - 2% (+/-0)
Cory Gardner - 2% (+/-0)
Matt Bevin - 1% (+1)
Undecided - 6% (-1)

Results of the Utah Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton - 54%
Keith Ellison - 46%

[/]

Haley, Clinton Finish Strong in South Carolina

Governor Nikki Haley speaks to a group of supporters in her home state of South Carolina on after being declared the victor of the state's Republican presidential primary on February 25.

Nikki Haley and Hillary Clinton both scored large victories in the South Carolina presidential primaries last night as each woman walked away with overwhelming shows of support from their parties and increased leads in overall delegate count.

On the Republican side, Governor Nikki Haley won her home state with more than 75% of the vote, winning all counties by large margins as she increased her delegate count to more than that of any other candidate for the GOP presidential nomination. No other candidate reached even 10% in Haley's state, with Tom Cotton, Paul Ryan, Brian Sandoval, Jeff Sessions, Cory Gardner, and Matt Bevin all coming in with between 2% and 7% of the vote.

The only withdrawal of the night was that of Matt Bevin, who announced that he would suspend his campaign for the presidency after an unimpressive last place finish in the South Carolina primary. Bevin, who is thought to have largely relied on the support of his socially conservative base in his quest for the Republican nomination, saw most of his campaign's momentum stall after poor finishes in the early primary contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Utah.

Meanwhile, President Hillary Clinton saw an even more overwhelming victory in the state of South Carolina, winning 84% of the statewide vote compared to only 16% for former United States Representative Keith Ellison, who was the only other candidate on the Democratic ballot. Clinton relied on heavy turnout from African-American communities in the state to propel her to victory, despite Ellison himself having an African-American background. Clinton's victory in South Carolina is seen as good news for her campaign ahead of the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries on March 3, during which fifteen states are set to vote in their respective presidential primary contests.

Results of the South Carolina Republican Primary

Nikki Haley - 75%
Tom Cotton - 7%
Paul Ryan - 6%
Brian Sandoval - 4%
Jeff Sessions - 3%
Cory Gardner - 3%
Matt Bevin - 2%

South Carolina Delegate Allocation (40 Total)

Nikki Haley - 30
Tom Cotton - 3
Paul Ryan - 2
Brian Sandoval - 2
Jeff Sessions - 1
Cory Gardner - 1
Matt Bevin - 1

Total Delegate Allocation (1,150 Needed to Win)

Nikki Haley - 35
Tom Cotton - 15
Paul Ryan - 15
Ted Cruz - 15
Jeff Sessions - 11
Brian Sandoval - 10
Matt Bevin - 9
Cory Gardner - 7
Chris Christie - 6
Marco Rubio - 1

The Atlantic/PRRI Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (February 29)

Tom Cotton - 20% (+2)
Paul Ryan - 20% (+/-0)
Nikki Haley - 11% (+2)
Brian Sandoval - 11% (+1)
Jeff Sessions - 8% (+/-0)
Cory Gardner - 8% (+/-0)
Undecided - 22% (+/-0)

Results of the South Carolina Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton - 84%
Keith Ellison - 16%

[LLR]

Is all your delegate allocation on the Republican side straight proportional? If so, why? South Carolina doesn't work like that...

[/]

Is all your delegate allocation on the Republican side straight proportional? If so, why? South Carolina doesn't work like that...

I think I mentioned earlier in the TL that one of the bills passed by the Clinton Administration was a major reform to the primary system that essentially encouraged national committees to switch to proportional delegate allocation methods.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Will this be continued? Really enjoyed the read!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Will this be continued? Really enjoyed the read!

Me too! Bump

[/]

Will this be continued? Really enjoyed the read!

Me too! Bump

Next update coming in a moment. Thanks for the interest!

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COTTON AND SESSIONS STORM ON SUPER TUESDAY; RYAN LAGS

Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) smiles as he watches results from the Super Tuesday primaries come in on March 3.

Yesterday's Super Tuesday primary contests saw yet another large upset in the race for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination, with Senators Tom Cotton and Jeff Sessions scoring large delegate haul wins across America as national frontrunner Paul Ryan fell short of gaining a delegate count lead.

Despite winning a plurality of the Super Tuesday states and an apparent plurality of the votes cast in the presidential primaries held yesterday, Ryan was unable to accumulate enough support in delegate-rich states to increase his campaign's delegate count by margins even close to those of Cotton and Sessions. As of this morning's count, Ryan only won 99 new delegates as a result of the Super Tuesday primaries, while Cotton and Sessions won 226 and 216, respectively. Meanwhile, former Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina won a mere 67 delegates, while Senator Brian Sandoval of Nevada won 59. Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado - who has since announced his withdrawal from the presidential race - won only 28 delegates as a result of yesterday's contests.

Delegate allocation rules in a number of states were key to the victories of Ryan and Sessions, with many of the allocation procedures seen as being favorable to candidates with concentrated support in few states and unfavorable to candidates with broad support spread across many. This was especially apparent in Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, all of which saw Cotton and Sessions rack up massive amounts of delegates as Ryan, Haley, Sandoval, and Gardner were all locked out of the allocation process due to delegate qualifying thresholds. Also to Cotton and Sessions' advantage were sweeping victories in their respective home states of Arkansas and Alabama, each of which awarded all of their delegates to their favorite sons.

While yesterday's Republican primaries were exciting for many, the Democrats saw President Hillary Clinton win a unanimous series of victories in her own party's contests, winning all fifteen Super Tuesday states even as she faced a new set of vicious attacks from her primary opponents, most notably former United States Representative Keith Ellison. Clinton pulled off convincing victories even in states like Vermont, Oklahoma, and Ellison's home state of Minnesota that were initially deemed competitive, effectively putting away any doubt that she would win her party's nomination for a second term in the White House. However, Ellison has promised his supporters that he will continue to actively oppose Clinton in upcoming primary contests, the next of which will occur this Saturday in the states of Kansas, Louisiana, and Maine.

Results of the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries



Cumulative Primary Results (as of March 3)

Tom Cotton - 5 States; 24% Popular Vote
Paul Ryan - 6 States; 20% Popular Vote
Jeff Sessions - 3 States; 17% Popular Vote
Nikki Haley - 2 States; 13% Popular Vote
Brian Sandoval - 3 States; 13% Popular Vote
Other - 0 States; 13% Popular Vote

Total Delegate Allocation (1,150 Needed to Win)

Tom Cotton - 241
Jeff Sessions - 227
Paul Ryan - 114
Nikki Haley - 102
Brian Sandoval - 69
Cory Gardner - 35
Ted Cruz - 15
Matt Bevin - 9
Chris Christie - 6
Marco Rubio - 1

Results of the Super Tuesday Democratic Primaries



Cumulative Primary Results (as of March 3)

Hillary Clinton - 19 States; 68%
Keith Ellison - 0 States; 23%
Kristen Day - 0 States; 5%
John Wolfe, Jr. - 0 States; 2%
Randall Terry - 0 States; 1%
Uncommitted - 0 States; 1%
Keith Judd - 0 States; 0%

Please feel free to post any comments, questions, or suggestions. Thanks for reading!

[LLR]

bumping my favorite of your TLs!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I literally just spent the last three hours digging through an Excel spreadsheet to find a data error in a Wisconsin Senate election in this timeline that isn't supposed to happen until 2030.

LOL

Can't wait to reach 2030 in this timeline!!

[tomhguy]

How do you do county maps?

[Calthrina950]

Results of the 2016 Elections in the United States

2016 United States Presidential Election

✓ Former Secretary Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX) - 480 EV; 57.85% PV
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY)/Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ) - 58 EV; 34.82% PV
Former Governor Gary Johnson (L-NM)/Businessman Austin Petersen (L-MO) - 0 EV; 6.12% PV
Activist Jill Stein (G-MA)/Activist Kent Mesplay (G-CA) - 0 EV; 0.85% PV
Activist Darrell Castle (C-TN)/Activist Scott Bradley (C-UT) - 0 EV; 0.36% PV

Most networks were able to project a winner in the remaining uncalled states by a few hours after midnight, with the exception of Texas, which wasn't considered a for-sure Clinton win until around 7:00 AM EST the next morning. Clinton did end up winning the state by around 0.54%, but voting irregularities and abnormally slow precinct reporting prevented the state from being called earlier. Texas was the closest state by percent margin, while Wyoming was the closest state by raw vote total, with Trump edging out a victory by 6,426 votes. Now, for the final county map:

Identity politics - as evident in the final county map - played a much more significant role in this election than many would initially expect. The effects are most noticeable in the Midwest/Northern Appalachia, where Ohio and Pennsylvania swung towards Clinton much more uniformly than West Virginia and Kentucky. The break between Pennsylvania and New York is also pretty noticeable, though that's more due to the overperformance of Democrats in the New York in general (Dems picked up seven House seats, including Staten Island). The percentage change between the Great Plains states and the Rocky Mountain states is also pretty funny, but Johnson did make a major advertising play in mid-October that mostly focused on Western statewide ad markets (and was actually pretty effective).

2016 United States Senate Elections

Red - Democratic Hold
Light Red - Democratic Gain
Blue - Republican Hold
Light Blue - Republican Gain
Gray - No Election

Needless to say, Campbell and Kennedy were the two to advance to the runoff in LA; Democrats didn't make much of a play in the state and Kennedy ended up winning by around fourteen points.

As expected, Schumer was elected Majority Leader without any significant opposition from fellow Democrats; Durbin retained his position as Whip and Tester succeeded Schumer as both Caucus Vice Chair and head of the DPCC. Wyden took over the DSCC and Klobuchar was elected Secretary; more on Murray later.

The big surprise, however, was on the Republican side, where Mitch McConnell announced his resignation as Senate Republican Leader, citing his age and discontent with hyperpartisanship in the Senate. In a contested leadership election, John Thune snubbed John Cornyn for a win by a mere two votes, with conservatives abandoning Cornyn for Thune after McConnell's endorsement of Cornyn backfired. John Barrasso was promoted to Chair of the Republican Conference and in turn was replaced by Jerry Moran as head of the SRPC; Jim Risch was elevated to Vice Chair of the Republican Conference while Roger Wicker remained with the NRSC. Cornyn was allowed to remain GOP Whip.

The final margin of control in the Senate was 55-45 (sound familiar?).

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2016 United States House Elections

Red - Democratic Hold
Light Red - Democratic Gain
Blue - Republican Hold
Light Blue - Republican Gain

After a recount in VA-10 put LuAnn Bennett 23 votes over Barbara Comstock, Democrats increased their margin in the House to 223-212, a small but vital change. There were no major changes in leadership; Paul became Minority Leader and McCarthy retired from leadership, allowing Scalise, McMorris Rodgers, etc. to retain their positions. Pelosi was elected Speaker with unanimous consent from the Democrats (even Sinema!).

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2016 State Gubernatorial Elections

Red - Democratic Hold
Light Red - Democratic Gain
Blue - Republican Hold
Light Blue - Republican Gain
Gray - No Election

While Colin Van Ostern maintained his lead over Chris Sununu in the New Hampshire recount and was eventually declared winner by a final margin of 312 votes without much controversy, the situation in West Virginia was much less clear. An initial recount led to a mere three-vote lead for Bill Cole, with a second recount being successfully lobbied for after the Justice campaign found a box of "missing" votes out of Charleston. However, the second recount actually helped Cole rather than hurt him, allowing him to escape with a final margin of 25 votes over Justice by January 14, only two days before the inauguration was to take place.

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2016 State Legislative Elections

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The following is a map of overall governmental control in each state as a result of the 2016 elections. A dark shade indicates that one party has control of the state governorship and both of the state legislative bodies, while a light shade indicates that one party has control of only two of the three listed bodies.

Dark Red - Complete Democratic Control (11 States)
Light Red - Partial Democratic Control (6 States)
Dark Blue - Complete Republican Control (23 States)
Light Blue - Partial Republican Control (10 States)

I have a question. Who won the majority of counties in this hypothetical election?