Explicitly Generic Elections Timeline

[/]

Any more requests?

[Wells]

Rand Paul and Chris Christie.

[Senator Cris]

Cory Gardner

[Enderman]

Sandoval, Kasich, Haslam, Susana Martinez, maybe even a self-promotion run of Carlos Curbelo. I wanna see how far he would be able to run.

Also, I think there should be a few primary challengers for Clinton, mainly for the plot. If it's too complicated, you don't have to put them in. I'll not add any more in case you have any ideas on where to go from this if you do go with a Democratic Primary.

Keith Ellison, Liz Warren, Mark Warner.

By the way, I love the timeline. I wonder if you're gonna have all that Africa crisises be a direct issue in the Primaries.

[Wells]

I forgot, Sarah Palin would be a hilarious addition to this timeline.

[Lachi]

Where have all of the county and house maps gone to?

[/]

Where have all of the county and house maps gone to?

The image hosting website I used to post the maps crashed last week; hopefully it will be up again within a few days but there's no way to know for sure.

[/]

An Early Look - The 2020 Presidential Election

Representative Justin Amash (R-MI) announces his candidacy on March 26 outside his office in Washington, D.C.

Immediately following Hillary Clinton's landslide victory against Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, Republicans from across the nation began to shift their attention toward 2020 as the started to search for a nominee who could unite the party and take the White House from the Democrats for the first time in twelve years.

By May 20, six candidates had already announced their bids for the GOP nomination, with Justin Amash being the first to do so in late March. Accusing the Clinton Administration of "taking big government to a whole new level" and "using her power to stomp out our nation's freedoms one by one" in his announcement speech, Amash is seen as a libertarian firebrand who has the potential to gain supporters from the socially moderate, small-government section of the party.

The next candidate to enter the race was none other than Governor Matt Bevin of Kentucky, who, surprising many, announced that he would forgo running for a second gubernatorial term in office to focus on his presidential aspirations. Many have accused Bevin of opportunism as a result of his decision, though he is viewed as still having a strong base of support in Kentucky and many other states in the region with socially conservative leanings.

Soon after Bevin's announcement, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska became the third candidate to enter the field, declaring in a speech on April 15 that he would seek the presidency in order to "scale back upon the historic government overreach of the last twelve years" if elected. Sasse's base of support is seen as similar to that of Justin Amash, with both candidates having refused to endorse Donald Trump in the 2016 election and emphasizing small government as a major part of their platforms.

While Amash, Bevin, and Sasse were all regarded as fairly typical Republican candidates, very few expected former Senator Jim Webb of Virginia to enter the GOP race as well, with the Republican-turned-Democrat-turned-Republican announcing on April 28 that he would run in the primary in order to "bring a new perspective to a party currently too divided to take back the presidency." In recent months, the media had engaged in speculation that Webb would challenge President Clinton in the Democratic primary, with his decision to instead simply rejoin the GOP coming as a surprise to many.

As April turned to May, the next candidate to enter the race was freshman Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, who declared in her announcement speech that "when our children and grandchildren grow up and look back at this time in our nation's history, I want them to see a genuine, conservative female President who represented the common values we all hold true instead of two terms of a dishonest, liberal female President who tanked our nation's economy and put our nation's security at risk at home and abroad." Ernst is viewed as having a strong appeal to the socially conservative, populist wing of the party that supported Trump in 2016 and will likely have an advantage once the primary season begins due to her home state of Iowa being the site of the first-in-the-nation caucus next January.

Soon after Ernst made her candidacy official, Texas Senator and 2016 Republican candidate Ted Cruz declared that he would again vye for the presidency in 2020, promising to "restore our nation to the conservative, family-oriented values that once made it prosper" in a passionate announcement speech. While Cruz has had a large following among some Republicans ever since his failed bid for the GOP nomination against Donald Trump four years ago, many within his own party dislike him for refusing to support Trump during the 2016 general election.

[/]

While Amash, Bevin, Sasse, Webb, Ernst, and Cruz remain the only six candidates to have officially announced their presidential bids as of May 20, there are a number of other contenders who could potentially join the race as well, with Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight website having identified twenty-four Republicans who may opt to enter the ring. They are as follows:

- Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA): Hailing from the traditionally Democratic state of Massachusetts, Governor Baker could make a play off of the fact that he was successfully elected and reelected in a state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984. However, his relatively liberal social views may not be par to some in what has increasingly become a conservatives-only primary process.

- Governor Scott Walker (R-WI): With his unremarkable 2016 bid for the presidency long forgotten, Governor Walker has expressed interest in running for the nation's highest office once more, having made multiple trips to the neighboring Iowa throughout the course of the last few months. While Walker's three terms as Governor of Wisconsin are certainly impressive, they do come with considerable baggage, which may drag him down once more.

- Senator Bob Corker (R-TN): As Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Corker has built up a reputation for honesty, integrity, and extremely strong policy credentials. However, his no-nonsense attitude may eventually come back to bite him in a nominating process viewed by many to be something of a popularity contest - especially in recent years.

- Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR): A rising star in the conservative wing of the GOP, Senator Tom Cotton has already formed and exploratory committee for a potential presidential bid and is expected to make a "major announcement" at his home in Arkansas on May 24. Inevitable?

- Senator Cory Garnder (R-CO): Senator Garnder, while unknown to most, is extremely popular within his home state of Colorado and could use that to his advantage during the upcoming primary debates. However, he is up for reelection in 2020, and may have to forgo a second term in the Senate if he wishes to go forth with his presidential aspirations.

- Senator John Kasich (R-OH): After a relatively successful two-term governorship and unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, John Kasich ran for the United States Senate in 2018 and summarily defeated the Democratic incumbent. Kasich may try for the presidency yet again in 2020, though he'll have to win more than just one state if he wants a victory this time around.

- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY): Like Kasich, Paul ran an unsuccessful campaign for the GOP nomination in 2016, though dropped out due to an embarrassing fifth-place finish in Iowa. If Paul does decide to enter the race, he will likely be competing against Justin Amash - and possibly Ben Sasse as well - for the support of the libertarian sect of the party, which may prove to be difficult as it did four years ago.

- Senator Josh Romney (R-UT): The son of former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, Josh will no doubt hold an extremely valuable name recognition advantage if he decides to throw his hat into the ring this time around, though it may end up serving him little good if the Trump sect of the party decides to band against him as they did to his father in 2016.

- Senator Brian Sandoval (R-NV): An extremely popular politician within his home state of Nevada, Sandoval served two terms as Governor before moving to the Senate in 2018. While his home state popularity could serve as an asset in the 2020 race, his moderate positions on many social issues could prove to be a bane.

- Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL): Ever since his decision to endorse Donald Trump early on in the 2016 primary race, Jeff Sessions has become a darling of the Trump wing of the party and could prevail based off of high name recognition and a possible endorsement by Mr. Trump himself. However, he is yet to form an exploratory committee for a potential bid, leaving many wondering if he will run at all.

- Senator Tim Scott (R-SC): A charismatic face in a field that many view as unremarkable so far, Senator Scott could easily rise to the top of the pack if he decides to enter the primary race this year, with his race and home state popularity both serving as potential assets to his campaign. Unfortunately for his supporters, Scott has expressed little interest in running so far.

- Representative Paul Ryan (R-WI): Once a rising star in the GOP following his 2012 Vice Presidential candidacy and subsequent elevation to Speaker of the House in 2015, Ryan has since seen his popularity fall as many have begun to view him as just another trite Washington politician. However, Ryan does have the name recognition, policy credentials, and political influence to mount a successful campaign for the presidency this year, provided that he decides to run at all.

- Representative Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): While Representative Blackburn is yet to make a large political presence on the national stage, her name has been tossed around as a potential female candidate to counter President Clinton in November. Her support for Trump in the 2016 election may serve as an asset to her campaign, though it could be difficult for her to stand out of the pack this year in what will likely be a very large group of Republican candidates.

- Representative Susan Brooks (R-IN): Like Blackburn, Representative Susan Brooks lacks a large national presence, though is viewed by many as a potential female candidate to compete for the GOP nomination if Senator Ernst and Governor Haley do not succeed. On Capitol Hill, Brooks has a strong reputation as a moderate with strong credentials, which could turn out to help or hurt her in the end.

- Former Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ): Ever since serving as Donald Trump's running mate in the 2016 election, inside sources have maintained that Chris Christie still has eyes on the White House, with one staffer saying it is "very likely" that the former governor will run again in 2020. When questioned on the subject, Donald Trump revealed that he would "probably" support Christie if the latter decided to mount another presidential bid, though Trump has since stated that he is undecided on whether or not to endorse until the primary season is over.

- Former Governor Mary Fallin (R-OK): Having left office with a +40 approval rating earlier this year, many view Governor Fallin as the most conservative candidate in the field with the capability to defeat President Clinton next November. While she has not yet formed an exploratory committee for her potential candidacy, she has expressed interest in running, saying in a CNN interview late last year that she was "very excited" to see how the 2020 race would play out.

- Former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC): Perhaps one of the most well-known and well-received Governors on a national level, Haley gained popularity during her two terms in office by delivering the Republican response to President Obama's 2015 State of the Union address and successfully handling the aftermath of the infamous Charleston church shooting four years ago. Many expect Governor Haley to have an advantage in the early stages of the primary, due both to her positive name recognition nationwide and her status as former governor of an early primary state.

- Former Governor Bill Haslam (R-TN): While not the most well-known politician nationally, Governor Haslam has gained a sizeable following throughout his two terms in office, building on a reputation of integrity and practicality that could serve as an asset if he chooses to join the race later this year.

- Former Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM): Hailing from the solid blue state of New Mexico, many say  that Martinez, the first female Hispanic governor in the history of the United States, is the only candidate who has the qualities necessary to defeat President Clinton next November in such a polarizing political environment. However, her moderate reputation - as well as a penchant for scandal - may come back to bite her in the increasingly conservative Republican primary electorate.

- Former Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): Ever since his retirement from the United States Senate after having been defeated by Donald Trump in the 2016 GOP primary, inside sources say Rubio has been planning a political comeback on a national level. While his relative youth and charisma could play to his advantage in a crowded field of candidates, some fear that the last three years have seen him lose much of his appeal.

- Businessman Mark Cuban (R-TX): A complete wildcard in the large field of potential GOP candidates, Cuban's name has been mentioned as a second iteration of the strongman spontaneity exhibited by Donald Trump's campaign in 2016. However, Cuban has expressed little interest in running for office, saying in a Fox News interview that "politics should be left to the politicians."

- Businessman Donald Trump, Jr. (R-NY): The eldest of the Trump children, Donald Trump, Jr. could use the support of his father to launch a potential bid for the GOP presidential nomination in 2020. However, his father's landslide defeat in 2016 could turn many Republican primary voters against his son this time around, indicating that the junior Trump will have work to do if he wishes to replicate the senior Trump's primary success.

- Businessman Eric Trump (R-NY): Like his older brother, Eric Trump is viewed as a potential candidate for Republican nomination in 2020 if he is able to work around the failure of his father and build on his support. While Eric is not currently as well-known or popular as Donald, Jr., many say that his policy awareness and aggressive speaking style could play to his advantage if he chooses to run.

- Businesswoman Ivanka Trump (R-NY): Unlike her two brothers, many see Ivanka Trump as having the ability to unite her father's old supporters without isolating any of those disappointed with his 2016 loss. Her personality and speaking style - viewed by most to be much more conciliatory and less controversial than those of her her father - could either work to her advantage or prove to be a liability.


What do you guys think of the field of candidates so far? Who do you support? Who do you think will win?

[Kingpoleon]

Kasich, Brooks, and Sandoval are all great. I'd probably support Amash or Webb. The remainder are too unlikely to win or I wouldn't support them.

Good job writing this!

[LLR]

Baker, Sandoval, or Martinez. Of those announced, Amash. But of course, Hillary all the way!

[Enderman]

Amash, Sasse, and Ernst of those in the running. For the speculative candidates, I like Gardner, Sandoval, Ryan, Blackburn, Haley, and Haslam over the others. If Rubio can get his campaign and act together, then I'd probably support him, though the new ones seem less dragged down than the rest.

[Heisenberg]

Very interesting. So many candidates, if this were in real life I'd have to really consider all the pros and cons before deciding who to support. LOL at the three Trump siblings all running, that's somewhat awkward.

[Mike Thick]

I like pretty much everyone there (except for the Trumps), especially Paul, Cuban, Sasse, and Scott. I'm anticipating a Cruz win, though.

[/]

Summer 2019 - The Race Heats Up

Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO) announces his bid for the presidency during a press conference on May 21.

June 20, 2019

By mid-June, the field of candidates seeking the 2020 Republican presidential nomination had more than doubled, with seven new presidential hopefuls officially announcing their bids to join the race for the White House.

On May 21, Senator Cory Gardner became the seventh Republican candidate to throw his hat into the ring, announcing during a press conference that he would seek the presidency in order to "provide a safer, healthier, and more prosperous future for all of our nation's children and grandchildren for years to come." While Senator Gardner's youth and home state popularity will likely be an advantage during the upcoming primary season, he may have to forgo his bid for reelection to the Senate if he wishes to pursue his presidential aspirations into next year.

Next to announce was Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who, like Gardner, would have to sacrifice a second term in the Senate if he wishes to continue his presidential bid beyond the primary elections starting next January. While Cotton is mostly unknown outside his home state of Arkansas, his fiery demeanor and staunchly conservative positions could play to his advantage. Cotton has also built up a reputation for integrity and straightforwardness throughout his first six years on Capitol Hill, which many say may help him gain support in right-wing circles.

By the end of May, Jeff Sessions of Alabama became the sixth sitting member of the United States Senate to announce his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination, declaring in his announcement speech that he "will no longer sit idly by as the Clinton Administration increases the size of the federal government exponentially and takes away our God-given freedoms one by one." Unlike Gardner and Cotton, Sessions has developed a national following over the course of the last four years due to his early support of Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries, though could potentially carry considerable baggage gained throughout his four terms in the Senate.

The next few weeks saw the Republican field continue to expand, with former Governors Mary Fallin of Oklahoma and Nikki Haley of South Carolina both announcing their respective bids in early June. While many say Haley's name recognition, significant popularity, and association with an early primary state will likely increase her chances immensely, Fallin's status as a conservative firebrand among Republican voters could aid her campaign. Early June also saw Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky announce his bid for the 2020 Republican nomination - while Paul may still carry baggage from his previous failed run in 2016, his status as a libertarian icon will likely give him strong appeal to a sizeable portion of the GOP voter base.

However, perhaps no announcement was more surprising than that of former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, who announced on June 20 that he would be running to "take our country back from the big-government corruption and liberal idealism that have sucked away everything our nation used to stand for." Christie, who served as Donald Trump's running mate in their unsuccessful 2016 bid for the White House, will likely easily gain the support of many of those who supported their ticket four years ago. When asked, Trump declined to make any official endorsement, saying that he will "wait and see" how the primary goes before coming out in support of any one candidate, though did commend Christie for being "a great VP pick, a great one, the best one anyone's ever had."


The additions of Gardner, Cotton, Sessions, Fallin, Haley, Paul, and Christie bring the current number of Republican candidates running for the GOP nomination to thirteen, a historic high for this early in the calendar year. However, recent weeks have also seen a number of potential candidates announce that they will not run for the presidency in 2020, with Governor Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, businessman Mark Cuban of Texas former Governor Bill Haslam of Tennessee, former Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina all declining bids. That brings the total number of remaining potential candidates to twelve, indicating that our final GOP field could be as small as the current thirteen candidates or as large as twenty-five provided that no surprise announcements occur. The following is a national primary poll including all twenty-five declared and remaining potential candidates as of June 20. An (a) next to the name of a candidate indicates that they have already announced their candidacy, while a (p) indicates that they are a potential candidate:

NBC News/Wall Street Journal - National Republican Primary Poll (June 20)

Ted Cruz (a) - 13%
Chris Christie (a) - 12%
Rand Paul (a) - 8%
Paul Ryan (p) - 6%
Joni Ernst (a) - 5%
Ivanka Trump (p) - 4%
Tom Cotton (a) - 4%
Nikki Haley (a) - 3%
Mary Fallin (a) - 3%
Jeff Sessions (a) - 3%
John Kasich (p) - 2%
Cory Gardner (a) - 2%
Ben Sasse (a) - 2%
Donald Trump, Jr. (p) - 2%
Marco Rubio (p) - 1%
Matt Bevin (a) - 1%
Justin Amash (a) - 1%
Josh Romney (p) - 1%
Eric Trump (p) - 0%
Bob Corker (p) - 0%
Scott Walker (p) - 0%
Brian Sandoval (p) - 0%
Marsha Blackburn (p) - 0%
Jim Webb (a) - 0%
Susan Brooks (p) - 0%
Undecided - 27%

How do you guys think the race will play out based off of the extremely colorful above poll?

[LLR]

I think Paul Ryan will win if he declares. Otherwise, Cruz, Rand, or Haley.

[/]

Conflict Arises as GOP Field Expands

Senator Brian Sandoval (R-NV) becomes the eighteenth Republican to enter the 2020 race on July 28.

August 15, 2019

The last two months have seen tensions in the GOP primary increase aggressively as the field of candidates vying for the right to take on President Clinton next November continues to expand, with seven new Republicans joining the existing field of thirteen in what many say will be the largest pool of major candidates running for a single party's presidential nomination in American history.

Former Senator Marco Rubio of Florida became the fourteenth candidate to enter the GOP primary race on June 25, declaring in his announcement speech that "our nation has waited long enough for a true conservative leader to bring our country back from the pain and suffering that it has endured over the course of the last twelve years; the time is now for the American people to strike back and end the decades-long tyranny of the Clintons." Not long after, incumbent House Speaker Paul Ryan also revealed his decision to join the field, insisting that "America is tired of Washington gridlock preventing progress from being made, and I believe I am the only candidate who can finally make Washington start to work for the people of our nation, not the other way around." The rest of July saw Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Senator John Kasich of Ohio, and Senator Brian Sandoval of Nevada also officially announce their bids for the presidency, bringing the total number of candidates in the 2020 Republican primaries to eighteen. The month came to a close with the one and only Donald Trump, Jr. announcing his presidential candidacy as well, creating quite some commotion in media circles when comparisons between the junior Trump's campaign and that of his father in 2016 began to find themselves in the public eye.

However, the controversy generated by the entry of Donald Trump, Jr. into the GOP field paled in comparison to that created three days later, when none other than the candidate's brother himself announced his own entry into the presidential race. On August 3, Eric Trump declared in a bold announcement speech outside his Manhattan apartment that "I am the only man - the only Trump - who can truly stop the disastrous Clinton machine, and I ask for your support in this election because I am the only candidate in the field who can truly make America great again."

Eric Trump's announcement set off absolute chaos in the media - never before had two brothers launched opposing campaigns against each other in the a presidential election, and perhaps never before had even the name Trump caused so much controversy. Donald Trump, Sr. and Ivanka Trump - both of whom had earlier endorsed Donald Trump, Jr.'s campaign - were forced to awkwardly avoid media contact in order to keep from being forced to comment on the situation, and according to inside reports, Donald Trump, Jr. was absolutely furious with his younger brother's decision, even going so far as to try to force a vote of expulsion of Eric Trump from the Trump Organization.

By mid-August, the situation had not resolved itself, and with the first GOP primary debate only five days away, the situation that the Republican Party had found itself in once more began to bring up memories of the disaster that had occurred four years before...

CNN/ORC Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (August 15)

(Note: Potential candidates Marsha Blackburn, Susan Brooks, Bob Corker, Josh Romney, and Ivanka Trump have each announced their intention not to run for the presidency since the last national poll and are hence not included within this poll.)

Ted Cruz - 12% (-1)
Donald Trump, Jr. - 10% (+8)
Chris Christie - 9% (-3)
Paul Ryan - 8% (+2)
Rand Paul - 7% (-1)
Joni Ernst - 5% (+/-0)
Eric Trump - 5% (+5)
Tom Cotton - 5% (+1)
Nikki Haley - 4% (+1)
John Kasich - 3% (+1)
Cory Gardner - 3% (+1)
Mary Fallin - 2% (-1)
Jeff Sessions - 2% (-1)
Marco Rubio - 1% (+/-0)
Brian Sandoval - 1% (+1)
Scott Walker - 1% (+1)
Ben Sasse - 1% (-1)
Matt Bevin - 0% (-1)
Justin Amash - 0% (-1)
Jim Webb - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 21% (-6)

What do y'all think will happen now? Thanks for reading!

[/]

September 2019 - Things Get Serious

Senator John Kasich (R-OH) speaks during the first Republican primary debate in Virginia Beach, Virginia on September 20.

The days leading up to the first debate of the GOP primary season were as tension-filled as the months that had preceded them, with each of the record twenty Republican candidates for the presidency trying to get their voices heard as the first primary contests approached.

By September 20, Fox News - which was to host the event in Virginia Beach, Virginia - had announced the debate lineups, with the Republican field to be divided into two due to the sheer number of candidates in the race. Podium orders were as follows:

Undercard Debate

               Amash Sasse Sandoval Sessions Gardner Fallin Rubio Walker Bevin Webb

Primetime Debate

                         Haley E.Trump Paul Christie Cruz D.Trump Ryan Ernst Cotton Kasich

The undercard debate saw little major controversy, with each of the candidates on the stage generally holding their own without much trouble. The most notable performances came from Cory Gardner, who used his position on center stage to come across as the most domineering and charismatic candidate in the debate, along with Matt Bevin, who many felt was the most comprehensive conservative voice on the stage. Sessions, Rubio, and Sandoval were also seen as having done relatively well, though most of the other candidates were seen as having performed unremarkably.

The primetime debate, however, was nowhere near as uncontroversial. The event got off to a rough start, with Joni Ernst making a significant gaffe after failing to satisfactorily answer a question regarding the almost exclusive use of her military record in her campaign. John Kasich also experienced a major setback when asked about his previous run in the 2016 Republican primaries, calling Donald Trump's victory over him four years ago a "fluke" and something that "shouldn't have happened." Eric Trump was quick to lash back at the Ohio senator, saying that "Donald Trump could have beaten you any day" over a roar of applause from the audience.

However, the altercations that had occurred early in the debate paled in comparison to what would happen only a few moments later. When asked for his thoughts on competing against his own brother in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump, Jr. stated that "I'm clearly the only Trump on this stage that knows what he's doing" and "Dad's always viewed me as the more successful child," leading to a thunder of boos and jeers from the audience. Ted Cruz was quick to reply to the comment, replying that "Yes, Donald, you are indeed a child," a response to which even Eric Trump himself applauded. Donald Trump, Jr. was visibly flustered after the incident, with a photo of his shocked expression on the debate stage making the front page on most newspapers the following morning.

The morning after the debate, Donald Trump, Jr. announced in a press conference that he would suspend his campaign for the presidency, a decision that came as no surprise to the millions who had watched his gaffe the night before. The only other dropout in the following days was that of Scott Walker, whose poor performance in the undercard prompted him to suspend his campaign early, just as he had four years ago.

Fox News Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (September 22)

Ted Cruz - 15% (+3)
Chris Christie - 10% (+1)
Paul Ryan - 9% (+1)
Eric Trump - 9% (+4)
Rand Paul - 7% (+/-0)
Cory Gardner - 5% (+2)
Joni Ernst - 4% (-1)
Nikki Haley - 4% (+/-0)
Tom Cotton - 4% (-1)
Jeff Sessions - 3% (+1)
John Kasich - 2% (-1)
Mary Fallin - 2% (+/-0)
Marco Rubio - 2% (+1)
Brian Sandoval - 2% (+1)
Matt Bevin - 2% (+2)
Ben Sasse - 0% (-1)
Justin Amash - 0% (+/-0)
Jim Webb - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 20% (-1)

What are everyone's thoughts on the current state of the race? Suggestions? Thanks for reading!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Good job, dar!

[LLR]

Oh god, they are gonna nominate Cruz.

[/]

October 2019 - The Race Continues

Chris Christie and Rand Paul fire shots during the second GOP debate on October 15 in Cleveland, Ohio.

Over the course of late September and early October, not much changed in the race for the White House, with each of the eighteen remaining Republican candidates continuing to build support as the Iowa caucuses approached. The second GOP presidential debate occurred on October 15 in Cleveland, Ohio and was hosted by a partnership between CNN and YouTube.

Undercard Debate Podium Order

  Amash Bevin Rubio Kasich Fallin Sandoval Sasse Webb

Primetime Debate Podium Order

            Cotton Ernst Paul Ryan Cruz Christie Trump Gardner Haley Sessions

The undercard debate saw Rubio, Sandoval, and Bevin dominate the stage once more, with the elevation of Gardner and Sessions to the main debate allowing the remaining trio to appear as the strongest competitors by far. Neither Kasich nor Fallin, despite their center-stage positions, were able to make a lasting impression upon the audience, allowing Rubio, Sandoval, and Bevin to absorb most media coverage following the event. The undercard was mainly void of any notable gaffes, with the exception of Ben Sasse, who - for the second debate in a row - seemed very nervous and relatively unprepared.

Despite record viewership numbers, the main debate was largely uneventful, with the candidates seeming to have considered the controversial events of the last debate in determining their collective demeanor this time around. Cory Gardner excelled once more, proving himself to be an expert debater as he provided arguments that many saw as the most passionate yet comprehensive. Nikki Haley and Paul Ryan also performed rather well, with each coming off as experienced and knowledgeable during their respective times in the limelight. The only notably poor performances were those of Joni Ernst and Rand Paul, each of whom faltered in their own way. While Ernst continued to appear to be a poor debater during her second night on the stage, Paul found himself on the losing side of a confrontation with Chris Christie, who accused him of being weak on national security and foreign policy in an argument reminiscent of a similar moment that had occurred on the debate stage four years ago.

The day after the debate, Ben Sasse became the third candidate to drop out of the Republican presidential race, announcing during a rather uneventful concession speech that his campaign "no longer appears to have the funding or support necessary to continue." Sasse's withdrawal was mentioned little in the news, with senator from Nebraska generally registering at 0% in the polls and performing unconvincingly overall.

A few days later, however, a much more notable dropout occurred when Eric Trump announced his surprise decision to withdraw from the race. In a press conference attended by his father, mother, and two sisters, Trump announced that he had decided to suspend his campaign for personal reasons, citing "a need to reconcile with my family and my fantastic brother, Donald, Jr." as his reason for ending his campaign early despite a consistent fourth-place standing in national polls. Trump's reasoning was widely lauded by the media, who painted his willingness to put family over politics as a comforting end to one of the nation's shortest-lived but highly controversial political dynasties.

CBS News Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (October 17)

Ted Cruz - 14% (-1)
Chris Christie - 11% (+1)
Paul Ryan - 10% (+1)
Cory Gardner - 7% (+2)
Rand Paul - 5% (-2)
Nikki Haley - 5% (+1)
Brian Sandoval - 5% (+3)
Matt Bevin - 5% (+3)
Marco Rubio - 4% (+2)
Tom Cotton - 3% (-1)
Joni Ernst - 3% (-1)
Jeff Sessions - 3% (+/-0)
John Kasich - 2% (+/-0)
Mary Fallin - 2% (+/-0)
Justin Amash - 0% (+/-0)
Jim Webb - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 21% (+1)

What do y'all think will happen? Thanks for reading!

[/]

Winter 2019 - The Field Condenses

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio greet each other before the third Republican primary debate on November 14.

With only two months to go before the casting of the first primary ballots in Iowa and New Hampshire, November 2019 saw the race for the White House intensify significantly, with candidates across the board preparing for the brutal primary season ahead as the field of challengers began to make itself more and more clear.

On November 10, ABC News - which was to host the third Republican primary debate four days later - released its final polling aggregate numbers to determine which candidates would reach the primetime and which would have to settle for the undercard event. Due to above-average performances during the October debate, Brian Sandoval, Marco Rubio, and Matt Bevin were all able to advance to the primetime, forcing Joni Ernst and Jeff Sessions into the undercard debate as a result of their falling poll numbers (while only two candidates were demoted to the undercard, three were allowed to advance to the primetime due to Eric Trump's withdrawal from the campaign a few weeks before). While Sessions accepted the change and announced his decision to continue his bid regardless of the stage he found himself on, Joni Ernst decided to suspend her campaign as a result of the news, becoming the fifth candidate in the Republican field to prematurely end her bid for the White House.

In fact, Jeff Sessions would end up not regretting his decision to participate in the undercard debate, as his superior performance put him into the media spotlight once more and resulted in a substantial increase in his national polling numbers. Unfortunately, the same could not be said of John Kasich and Mary Fallin, whose subpar performances spurred them to suspend their own campaigns for the presidency over the course of the following weeks. The primetime debate went off mostly without any major developments, though impressive performances by Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton allowed each to experience a decent bounce in their polling numbers.

As December 2019 approached, the field seemed to start to solidify, with each of the candidates beginning to make preparations for the primary season as the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire approached. The only other candidate to drop out before the New Year was Rand Paul, whose second straight poor debate performance caused many to speculate that he would lose his spot on the primetime stage to Jeff Sessions. Paul's withdrawal did allow Sessions to reclaim the tenth spot, and although most major media outlets agreed that the requirement of an undercard debate was no longer necessary, Justin Amash and Jim Webb - the only two candidates yet to claim a spot on the primetime stage - showed no signs of winding their campaigns down.

By the end of December, the national field had fallen in size to twelve candidates, with Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan becoming the three most prominent national frontrunners as other candidates began to fight for support in early primary states across the nation. Who will win? Only time can tell.

ABC News Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (December 22)

Ted Cruz - 15% (+1)
Chris Christie - 12% (+1)
Paul Ryan - 12% (+2)
Nikki Haley - 8% (+3)
Cory Gardner - 7% (+/-0)
Brian Sandoval - 6% (+1)
Tom Cotton - 6% (+3)
Matt Bevin - 5% (+/-0)
Marco Rubio - 5% (+1)
Jeff Sessions - 5% (+2)
Justin Amash - 1% (+1)
Jim Webb - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 18% (-3)

Thoughts? Predictions? Feel free to comment. or die

Thanks for reading!

[/]

January 2020 - The Final Stretch

Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) gives a speech at a rally in Manchester, New Hampshire on January 11.

As the Iowa caucus draws nearer, candidates are making their final preparations for the beginning of the primary season, with the twelve remaining members of the GOP primary field each stepping up their campaigns as the time to build up an early advantage in the race comes to a close.

As of January 14 - exactly one week before the date of the Iowa caucus - Ted Cruz still holds a slim lead in national polling, pulling 16% of popular support from his socially conservative Republican primary voter base. Meanwhile, Paul Ryan has inched ahead of Chris Christie for the second-place position, with the House Speaker continuing to make successful attacks against the former New Jersey Governor for his shaky tenure in office.

While the position of the top three contenders has remained largely stable over the course of the last few months, the middle of the field has seen substantially more movement, with Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas surging in support after two straight successful debate performances in November and December. Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama has seen a similar increase in support, with the last few months having treated him quite favorably ahead of the early primary contests in January and February. While Tom Cotton and Jeff Sessions each have a large base of potential supporters to persuade, they will likely have to fight against two of the most prominent national frontrunners, with Ted Cruz and Chris Christie battling against Cotton and Sessions for the support of the social conservative and pro-Trump wings of the GOP, respectively.

As of early January, the Republican primary schedule and state-to-state delegate allocation have been finalized by the RNC. Primary dates and delegate numbers are as follows:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In total, the 2020 Republican primary season will see 2,298 total delegates up for grabs throughout the states and territories, with exactly 1,150 delegates necessary to win the GOP nomination.

The most significant change in the primary schedule going into the 2020 primary season is the replacement of Nevada as an early caucus state with Utah. In 2016, largely unprepared-for turnout and errors in data reporting caused both the Republican and Democratic national committees to consider replacing Nevada with another state to serve as the fourth early primary contest, a decision that was ultimately carried out by both parties in early 2018. While the Nevada Democratic and Republican parties protested the decision made by their respective national committees, their efforts were to no avail, and both chose to move their state's caucus to Super Tuesday rather than face a cut in delegates due to failure to abide by national party rules.

The only other notable change in the 2020 GOP primary schedule is the formation of a territory mega-primary on March 12, with all five of the United States' populated territories having decided to move their primaries to the same date in return for bonuses in delegate allocation. The March 12 primary will feature contests in American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands, which are to be held concurrently with the primary in Washington, DC.


While the fight for the Republican presidential nomination has seen an intensity of historic proportions in the last few months, the Democratic primary race has also recently become a major subject in the news. As of early January, five candidates have achieved ballot access in a number of states to challenge President Hillary Clinton in her bid for the Democratic presidential nomination, with the most notable challenger by far being former United States Representative Keith Ellison. Ellison, a native of Minnesota, represented an urban Minneapolis district in Congress from 2007 to 2018, when he resigned after being primaried by a wealthy businessman due to controversial comments that many viewed as anti-Semitic.

While Ellison has gained by far the most media attention as a result of his primary challenge to President Clinton, four other candidates have achieved ballot access in at least one state, with Executive Director of Democrats for Life Kristen Day, attorney John Wolfe, anti-abortion activist Randall Terry, and convicted felon Keith Judd all poised to compete with Clinton in at least one primary contest. The following is a list of which states and territories each candidate is on the ballot in, out of 57 total:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Democratic primary schedule is identical to that of the Republicans this year, with the exceptions of the inclusion of the Democrats Abroad primary, which is to occur on March 12, along with the dates of the Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, and Washington, DC primaries, which are to occur on June 7, June 7, and June 9, respectively.


Final pre-Iowa polls for the Republican primary are as follows:

USA Today/Suffolk Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (January 14)

Ted Cruz - 16% (+1)
Paul Ryan - 13% (+1)
Chris Christie - 12% (+/-0)
Nikki Haley - 8% (+/-0)
Tom Cotton - 8% (+2)
Cory Gardner - 7% (+/-0)
Brian Sandoval - 6% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 6% (+1)
Marco Rubio - 5% (+/-0)
Matt Bevin - 4% (-1)
Justin Amash - 0% (-1)
Jim Webb - 0% (+/-0)
Undecided - 15% (-3)

USA Today/Suffolk Poll - Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (January 14)

Ted Cruz - 21%
Paul Ryan - 17%
Tom Cotton - 11%
Jeff Sessions - 10%
Matt Bevin - 9%
Chris Christie - 7%
Cory Gardner - 6%
Marco Rubio - 5%
Justin Amash - 3%
Nikki Haley - 3%
Brian Sandoval - 2%
Jim Webb - 0%
Undecided - 6%

USA Today/Suffolk Poll - New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (January 14)

Chris Christie - 19%
Paul Ryan - 14%
Brian Sandoval - 12%
Nikki Haley - 11%
Ted Cruz - 9%
Marco Rubio - 8%
Cory Gardner - 7%
Tom Cotton - 2%
Jim Webb - 2%
Justin Amash - 2%
Jeff Sessions - 1%
Matt Bevin - 1%
Undecided - 12%

[LLR]

Keith Ellison is running!? Meh, I still support Clinton.

[/]

RYAN UPSETS CRUZ IN IOWA

House Speaker Paul Ryan waves to supporters after being declared the winner of the Iowa caucus on January 21.

The 2020 Republican primary season got off to a surprising start Tuesday night as House Speaker Paul Ryan upset Senator Ted Cruz to win the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus.

Ryan, who had previously been trailing Cruz by around four points in polling leading up to the caucus, ended up escaping with 20% of total support in the Hawkeye State, compared to only 18% for Cruz. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas pulled off a strong third place finish with 14%, while Jeff Sessions and Matt Bevin won fourth and fifth with 12% and 11% respectively. Chris Christie, who had previously been polling in third nationally, won seventh place with 6% of the vote, behind Cory Gardner, who came in sixth with 7%.

While Ted Cruz vowed to stay in the race despite a disappointing result, the same could not be said of Justin Amash and Jim Webb, who finished in eleventh and twelfth places with a respective 1% and 0% of the vote. Both Amash and Webb dropped out on the night of the caucus, with Amash promising to "continue the fight for a stronger and freer America" despite dropping out of the presidential race and Webb stating that "the Republican Party is simply not ready for someone whose ideas go above and beyond simple party lines."

However, a much more notable dropout came the next morning, when former Senator Marco Rubio of Florida announced that he would suspend his presidential campaign as well. Finishing in ninth place overall in Iowa with 4% of total support, Rubio conceded that his campaign "no longer appears to have the support or resources to continue," though pledged to "continue working with conservatives and Republicans across America in order to secure a brighter and safer future for all of our nation's children."

Meanwhile, President Hillary Clinton won a convincing victory in her own party's Iowa caucus, garnering 61% of all support compared to 27% for former Representative Keith Ellison and 12% for pro-life activist Kristen Day. While the media had tried to portray a close race between Clinton and Ellison in the weeks leading up to the caucus, Clinton ended up winning with a margin of more than 34%, putting a significant dent in Ellison's hopes to defeat the president in her bid to receive the Democratic presidential nomination once again. However, both Ellison and Day promised to continue their efforts despite the results in Iowa, pledging to stay in the race until the DNC in August.

Results of the Iowa Republican Caucus

Paul Ryan - 20%
Ted Cruz - 18%
Tom Cotton - 14%
Jeff Sessions - 12%
Matt Bevin - 11%
Cory Gardner - 7%
Chris Christie - 6%
Nikki Haley - 4%
Marco Rubio - 4%
Brian Sandoval - 3%
Justin Amash - 1%
Jim Webb - 0%

Iowa Delegate Allocation (31 Total)

Paul Ryan - 6
Ted Cruz - 6
Tom Cotton - 4
Jeff Sessions - 4
Matt Bevin - 4
Cory Gardner - 2
Chris Christie - 2
Nikki Haley - 1
Marco Rubio - 1
Brian Sandoval - 1

Total Delegate Allocation (1,150 Needed to Win)

Paul Ryan - 6
Ted Cruz - 6
Tom Cotton - 4
Jeff Sessions - 4
Matt Bevin - 4
Cory Gardner - 2
Chris Christie - 2
Nikki Haley - 1
Marco Rubio - 1
Brian Sandoval - 1

Quinnipiac Poll - National Republican Presidential Primary (January 24)

Paul Ryan - 17% (+4)
Ted Cruz - 13% (-3)
Chris Christie - 11% (-1)
Tom Cotton - 10% (+2)
Cory Gardner - 8% (+1)
Nikki Haley - 8% (+/-0)
Jeff Sessions - 7% (+1)
Brian Sandoval - 6% (+/-0)
Matt Bevin - 4% (+/-0)
Undecided - 16% (+1)

Quinnipiac Poll - New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary (January 24)

Chris Christie - 17% (-2)
Paul Ryan - 16% (+2)
Brian Sandoval - 15% (+3)
Nikki Haley - 12% (+1)
Cory Gardner - 9% (+2)
Ted Cruz - 7% (-2)
Tom Cotton - 4% (+2)
Jeff Sessions - 3% (+2)
Matt Bevin - 2 (+1)%
Undecided - 15% (+3)

Quinnipiac Poll - Utah Republican Presidential Caucus (January 24)

Ted Cruz - 22%
Tom Cotton - 20%
Jeff Sessions - 16%
Matt Bevin - 13%
Paul Ryan - 7%
Cory Gardner - 5%
Chris Christie - 2%
Nikki Haley - 2%
Brian Sandoval - 1%
Undecided - 12%

Quinnipiac Poll - South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary (January 24)

Nikki Haley - 74%
Ted Cruz - 5%
Paul Ryan - 4%
Tom Cotton - 3%
Jeff Sessions - 2%
Chris Christie - 2%
Cory Gardner - 1%
Brian Sandoval - 1%
Matt Bevin - 0%
Undecided - 8%

Results of the Iowa Democratic Caucus

Hillary Clinton - 61%
Keith Ellison - 27%
Kristen Day - 12%

Thoughts on the results? Thanks for reading!