McCain is elected, Iran War, Stimulus rejected, Palin soon becomes POTUS in 2009

[Blue3]

Obama and Hillary choose not to run for President.

John Edwards is the Democratic nominee.

McCain still chooses Sarah Palin as his running mate, to try to draw Democrats feeling disappointed they won't have a history-making nominee despite earlier speculation.

The Edwards scandal is revealed in September. The Financial Crash is also delayed by the feds temporarily bailing out Lehman Brothers.

McCain slightly beats Edwards.




We begin bombing Iran in February, Iran responds by invading to "liberate" its fellow Shiites in Iraq, and sparks retaliatory strikes against the U.S. across the Middle East. Oil refineries in Saudi Arabia are bombed by Iran, sending the price of oil through the roof. McCain sends even more troops into Iraq and pushes into Iran.

As a result of the escalating war in Iran/Iraq and the Persian Gulf, McCain withdraws all troops from Afghanistan to focus on this new war. Efforts to capture Osama bin Laden are put on hold.

McCain gets "cap and trade" passed.

He tries immigration reform but faces a revolt from the GOP base and by squirmish Democrats.

The minimum wage is NOT raised to $7.25... remains at $5.15/hour.

No healthcare reform attempt.

No repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell.

No Sotomayor or Kagan, because there are no retirements on the Supreme Court.

Torture is ended, but we still put more people into Guantanamo without due process, with no effort to close it.

The Financial Crash begins in late March, with Lehman Brothers finally being allowed to fail, with basically the same result of a huge crash, eventually the unpopular TARP bank bailouts, the Great Recession, and resulting massive layoffs and unemployment.

But McCain is convinced to not pass a stimulus package, vetoing what the Congressional Democrats send him. He only proposes a Tax Cut, which the Democrats reject. There's also no bailout of the automobile industry: Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors all go out of business. The budget deficit is huge. There is no financial reform.

McCain dies on the 4th of July (2009), and Sarah Palin is sworn in as President.



What realistically happens next?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clearly a Republican landslide in 2010.

[Blue3]

Clearly a Republican landslide in 2010.

If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama didn't run (not impossible to think of), then Edwards probably would have been the nominee... and the truth about his affair probably would have come out sooner.

Also, if the feds were a little more competent, they wouldn't have Lehman Brothers fail, and the economy could continue to limp on a little while longer.

With those 2 things in place, a McCain victory seems much more possible. And the rest flows from there. The only thing perhaps not logical would be Palin taking over... but I could see the stress of being President getting to him (or, God forbid, an assassination).




So, if this happened, I could see the Democrats increasing their supermajority in 2010 to the point where they easily had the votes to impeach Sarah Palin and put a Democrat into the White House. That or the country somehow limps along to a landslide Obama or Hillary victory in 2012.

[Vosem]

I tend to doubt McCain would've chosen Palin if he wasn't running against Obama. It was an attemt to deny the "historicity" of the opposing campaign that would've been unnecessary if the opponent was Edwards. McCain's VP would've been either Pawlenty or Lieberman.

[NeverAgain]

Palin soon becomes over her head. Extreme Democratic Landslides in '10. Palin becomes a complete lame duck and soon becomes entrenched in re-election mode. If either Hillary or Obama runs or both do, one will be President. I'd probably say, Obama. Obama/Clinton or Obama/Bayh something like that is the ticket. I'll say she goes Palin/Jindal.

Barack Obama (D - IL)/Evan Bayh (D - IN)- 401 EV

Sarah Palin (R - AK)/Bobby Jindal (R - LA)- 137 EV

I'd say that if Democrats got the same result in '06 and then like 240ish seats in the House and like 54 or 55 in the Senate by 2009. They win huge in '10 and then 2012 they win almost astronomical proportions like 69-29-2 and 300-138. Obama passes almost all of his platform (and fixes the Recession) in his first two years, then loses a couple of seats in '14 (nowhere near his actual margins). Ending up with 60-40 and 250-178 in 2016. He wins re-election and then passes a couple more fairly liberal programs and ends his term in 2020 with an extremely high approval rating. Probably a top 10 President. A young Booker or Gillibrand type runs and probably wins on Obama's coattails pushing the U.S. into a relatively wonderful place to live.

[Kingpoleon]

Yes, because McCain was far less a maverick than Obama.

[Higgs]

Clearly a Republican landslide in 2010.

If Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama didn't run (not impossible to think of), then Edwards probably would have been the nominee... and the truth about his affair probably would have come out sooner.

Also, if the feds were a little more competent, they wouldn't have Lehman Brothers fail, and the economy could continue to limp on a little while longer.

With those 2 things in place, a McCain victory seems much more possible. And the rest flows from there. The only thing perhaps not logical would be Palin taking over... but I could see the stress of being President getting to him (or, God forbid, an assassination).




So, if this happened, I could see the Democrats increasing their supermajority in 2010 to the point where they easily had the votes to impeach Sarah Palin and put a Democrat into the White House. That or the country somehow limps along to a landslide Obama or Hillary victory in 2012.

Yeah that's not how it works. What is the impeachable offense?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The minimum wage law was passed in 2007 by the new Democratic congress and signed by President Bush. It increased the wage incrementally, with the final increment being to 7.25 in July 2009.

With a Democratic Congress, I don't see how the last leg doesn't go into effect with a President McCain. More to the point even if it doesn't, it would still have been higher than 5.15 since previous increments had already taken effect.