Why did Sanders only get 55.7% in Wyoming?

[Blue3]

Why did Sanders only get 55.7% in Wyoming?

I think everyone was expecting another 70%+ landslide.



Are things like
-"she's not qualified"
-his superdelegate strategy
-his NY Daily News interview
etc.

finally starting to stick to him?

[dspNY]

That plus it was a closed caucus without same day registration (the biggie) plus absentee caucusing was allowed.

The closed nature of the caucus is a huge warning for Bernie in the closed Northeast primaries. It sets a ceiling of the % of white vote he can win in the Northeast/Mid Atlantic primaries which will almost certainly not be enough to win

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

It's beginning of the end for Bernie.

[Ebowed]

Why does the frontrunner keep losing?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why does the frontrunner keep losing?

Reince, is that you?

[The Other Castro]

Though it's an underperformance, I think someone a year ago would be confused by this thread title.

[Figueira]

It's beginning of the end for Bernie.

No.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Absentee ballots and this being a closed caucus.

[Xing]

It could be that he's not nearly as popular in the plains as he is in the NW. If you look at the results from Nebraska, these results don't look that strange.

[/]

It could be that he's not nearly as popular in the plains as he is in the NW. If you look at the results from Nebraska, these results don't look that strange.

This.

[Shadows]

I think he didn't campaign hard & could not get a turnout as expected. His supporters thought he probably would have won easily & didn't turnout

[izixs]

Small number statistics. When you only have a few delegates for a county/precinct, you need to get very high percentages of caucus goers to support you to get that extra delegate. If a county has two delegates and you're getting 68% in the caucus there, assuming the viability threshold is say 30%, both Clinton and Sanders will get one delegate. And thus a 68/32 split turns into a 50/50. This can also work against Clinton too of course, but given the overall results its more likely to have helped Clinton more than hurt.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I think he didn't campaign hard & could not get a turnout as expected. His supporters thought he probably would have won easily & didn't turnout

Sanders does best when the turnout is lowest (caucuses). The more people that cast votes (in this case, absentee) the better Clinton performs.

[Skye]

Though it's an underperformance, I think someone a year ago would be confused by this thread title.

lol ain't this the truth. I remember saying Bernie would only win NH. What a time to be alive.

[dspNY]

Small number statistics. When you only have a few delegates for a county/precinct, you need to get very high percentages of caucus goers to support you to get that extra delegate. If a county has two delegates and you're getting 68% in the caucus there, assuming the viability threshold is say 30%, both Clinton and Sanders will get one delegate. And thus a 68/32 split turns into a 50/50. This can also work against Clinton too of course, but given the overall results its more likely to have helped Clinton more than hurt.

There were raw vote totals and Sanders won about 57.5% of the raw vote and 56% of the delegates. This hurt him slightly but nowhere to the extent you are mentioning

[morgieb]

Probably because there were like 20 voters.

[Ebsy]

It seems like Clinton's exceptional surrogate ballot ground game was the biggest factor, along with the caucus being closed. Clinton did similarly well in Nebraska, which also allowed absentee votes.

[Ebowed]

I think he didn't campaign hard & could not get a turnout as expected. His supporters thought he probably would have won easily & didn't turnout

Sanders does best when the turnout is lowest (caucuses). The more people that cast votes (in this case, absentee) the better Clinton performs.

Sanders does best when the turnout is lowest (caucuses) unless the turnout is even lower (closed caucus).

[Lyin' Steve]

Now we know why he was out campaigning in Wyoming these last few days.  Must have had internal polling showing it really tight.

[ottermax]

Maybe Democrats are also more moderate in Wyoming?

Colorado, Idaho, and Utah all have sizable urban areas, ski resorts, and college campuses that provide more left-wing voters for the Democrats. These states are also less oil/gas dependent. If I remember correctly Wyoming voters are on average some of the most conservative in the country even compared to the Deep South.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Maybe Democrats are also more moderate in Wyoming?

Colorado, Idaho, and Utah all have sizable urban areas, ski resorts, and college campuses that provide more left-wing voters for the Democrats. These states are also less oil/gas dependent. If I remember correctly Wyoming voters are on average some of the most conservative in the country even compared to the Deep South.

Oklahoma moderates loved Bernie. He draws a ton from the moderate wing of the party.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Maybe Democrats are also more moderate in Wyoming?

Colorado, Idaho, and Utah all have sizable urban areas, ski resorts, and college campuses that provide more left-wing voters for the Democrats. These states are also less oil/gas dependent. If I remember correctly Wyoming voters are on average some of the most conservative in the country even compared to the Deep South.

Oklahoma moderates loved Bernie. He draws a ton from the moderate wing of the party.

Those were "dixiecrats" - people who are still registered as Democrat for local race purposes but vote straight ticket R otherwise. Oklahoma isn't an open primary or same-day registration state, so they simply voted against the "party establishment".

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Maybe Democrats are also more moderate in Wyoming?

Colorado, Idaho, and Utah all have sizable urban areas, ski resorts, and college campuses that provide more left-wing voters for the Democrats. These states are also less oil/gas dependent. If I remember correctly Wyoming voters are on average some of the most conservative in the country even compared to the Deep South.

Oklahoma moderates loved Bernie. He draws a ton from the moderate wing of the party.

Those were "dixiecrats" - people who are still registered as Democrat for local race purposes but vote straight ticket R otherwise. Oklahoma isn't an open primary or same-day registration state, so they simply voted against the "party establishment".

Very true. Oklahoma Democrats are not in love with Bernie's agenda. They didn't vote for him but against Hillary, whom they perceive as Obama's continuation. This is the only reason they could flip from Randall fycking Terry to a self-described socialist in one cycle.

[ProudModerate2]

I actually thought he would win it by a larger margin.
Maybe his support has now peaked.

[Smash255]

Small number statistics. When you only have a few delegates for a county/precinct, you need to get very high percentages of caucus goers to support you to get that extra delegate. If a county has two delegates and you're getting 68% in the caucus there, assuming the viability threshold is say 30%, both Clinton and Sanders will get one delegate. And thus a 68/32 split turns into a 50/50. This can also work against Clinton too of course, but given the overall results its more likely to have helped Clinton more than hurt.

There were raw vote totals and Sanders won about 57.5% of the raw vote and 56% of the delegates. This hurt him slightly but nowhere to the extent you are mentioning

That would have resulted in a 8-6 delegate advantage instead of 7-7.  With that being said, one simple answer is simply there aren't that many liberals in Wyoming.  Even in some of the other heavily GOP states in the region, there are at least some areas that are fairly liberal.