Will trump win all 95 NY delegates?

[Matty]

what you think?

[Holmes]

No, but between 85 - 90.

[dspNY]

If he actively campaigns for it, yes. If he gets lazy (and it looks like he is), then Kasich will sneak a few off him

[Matty]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

[Holmes]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

He should win all congressional districts but not get 50% of the vote in every one of them.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

Because they're allocated proportionately statewide and by district, and both Cruz and Kasich are polling around 20%, which is the threshold. To get all 95, Trump has to keep both his opponents <20%, statewide AND in every district. The odds of that happening are slim.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

Because they're allocated proportionately statewide and by district, and both Cruz and Kasich are polling around 20%, which is the threshold. To get all 95, Trump has to keep both his opponents <20%, statewide AND in every district. The odds of that happening are slim.

No, I believe the 20% threshold goes away if Trump hits 50% in the district. Still I expect Trump to fail to win a majority in at least 5-7, giving whoever hits 20% in that district a chance.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

Because they're allocated proportionately statewide and by district, and both Cruz and Kasich are polling around 20%, which is the threshold. To get all 95, Trump has to keep both his opponents <20%, statewide AND in every district. The odds of that happening are slim.

No, I believe the 20% threshold goes away if Trump hits 50% in the district. Still I expect Trump to fail to win a majority in at least 5-7, giving whoever hits 20% in that district a chance.

I've heard that, but haven't found official confirmation of it anywhere.  And yes, he's not going to break 50% in every CD.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

There are twenty something congressional districts, right?  There'll be plenty of variation from one district to the next, so no, he's not going to break 50% in all of them.

[Holmes]

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

There are twenty something congressional districts, right?  There'll be plenty of variation from one district to the next, so no, he's not going to break 50% in all of them.

27. I think his best districts will be in the City, and western New York. Kasich will be best in northern upstate, and Cruz is probably going to be flatline at 18-20% everywhere.

[dax00]

Well, I can't see Trump losing a CD. He'll probably fall short in a handful of CDs, so I think between 89 and 93 is a reasonable prediction.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It wouldn't surprise me if Trump lost some of those NYC districts that have like 12 Republicans living in them. Remember that in most such places the few Republicans who do exist are a handful of fundies, so prime for Cruz.

[politicallefty]

No, but I think he could cross 80 delegates. Even in California, among the super Democratic districts, it's hard to say what will happen on the Republican side. In New York right now, I have no idea how Republicans will vote in some of the most Democratic districts in the country.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wonder which will be Trump's worst congressional district. I guess Albany.

[President Johnson]

He has good chance. I'm sure he will break 55% of the vote. Maybe even around 60%.

[Hammy]

No, but I think he'll get about ~80% of them.

[Seriously?]

wow, 85% of atlas thinks no so far.

I'm surprised. If trump is at 56% in the state as the polls show, I don't see how he doesn't get all 95

It's the screwed up way NY apportions delegates. Trump is bound to fall short of 50% in a handful of the 27 districts. I'd put the state at somewhere between 80-90 delegates Trump to 5-15 for the other guys, assuming Trump hits 50% + 1 statewide.

[Seriously?]

I wonder which will be Trump's worst congressional district. I guess Albany.

There's a reason these candidates are stumping in the Southeast Bronx (CD-15) and Brooklyn. Spotting a Republican in those districts is about as easy as finding Waldo.

[Thomas D]

Around 86.

[Ljube]

All 95. New York is Trump country.

[Mr. Morden]

It wouldn't surprise me if Trump lost some of those NYC districts that have like 12 Republicans living in them.

Here's a question: Are there any CDs in New York City where a non-negligible fraction of the Republican primary vote would come from racial minorities?  The 2008 New York state Republican primary electorate was only 86% white, if you believe the exit poll.  So there are non-whites voting in the Republican primary somewhere in the state, and I'd assume that they're more concentrated in NYC.