Atlas Predicts: Which party will win the 2016 presidential election?

[MT Treasurer]

10-day poll. To be bumped on Nov. 9, 2016.

It will be a close election, but my guess is that the Republicans narrowly prevail in the Electoral college while the Democrats win the popular vote.

[Doimper]

The fact that Republican party elders see a brokered convention as preferable to the current frontrunner cinching the nomination says it all. Clinton is going to pull this off without breaking a sweat - unless the FBI recommends an indictment or something similarly unexpected happens.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Hillary wins the Presidency over Trump and/or Cruz, Democrats regain control of the Senate (narrow majority), not much changes in the House, Democrats may gain a handful of seats.

[pho]

The Democrats in a walk.

[Nyvin]

It's becoming obvious the Democrats have a very significant advantage.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

It's becoming obvious the Democrats have a very significant advantage.

[standwrand]

Mitt Romney will become the nominee at a contested convention and the Repubs will get a 538 sweep

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It depends on FBI review. If the review is harsh Clinton will probably will be held to a close and even race. If its not, Clinton wins in a walk. But Trump is right where Romney is.

[Xing]

Anything can happen, but the way things look now, Democrats will probably win, and it won't be close.

[The Other Castro]

If people went back a year ago and tried to think of the the outcome of the Republican primaries that could most easily produce a Democratic president, I don't think they would have been able to come up with what's happened so far (and we haven't even gotten to the best part yet).

[Camaro33]

Highly doubtful of a Democratic popular vote win with a Republican electoral college victory. Today's map makes this scenario nearly impossible. The other way around is far more likely.

Democrats win is my guess. Republicans get 191-253 electoral votes.

[President Johnson]

Not sure. TRUMP is the only Republican with a chance.

[Higgs]

The GOP could win, but it's looking like a Clinton Presidency is more likely. Republicans hold the House and Senate, that I'm sure of.

[This account no longer in use.]

Not sure. TRUMP is the only Republican with a chance.

lol

[ElectionsGuy]

The Democrats

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

It depends on who's nominated by the GOP though, this will be a re-incarnation of 1968. Trust me, Republicans narrowly lose to Hillary, but they'll come back....

[NeverAgain]

The semi-sane party...

[Senator Spark]

Looks like the Dems

[Shadows]

It depends on FBI review. If the review is harsh Clinton will probably will be held to a close and even race. If its not, Clinton wins in a walk. But Trump is right where Romney is.

If the review is harsh, not only will Hillary Clinton's political career be over, but she will live as disgraced & shamed politician for the rest of her life whom the President pardon & saved from going to jail.

The Dems will have to find an alternate candidate & the Clinton legacy will be tarnished. It will be a huge hit for the GE & may make the GE close. On an ideal world, the GOP has no chance & Dems should sweep

[Kingpoleon]

The semi-sane party...

Unfortunately, the Democrats will. Why would you think it's the Republicans?

[i4indyguy]

Voted republican, even though i would MUCH  prefer Hillary out of the crop still remaining. Just don't want to be that person who pretended ted cruz isn't capable of being a slippery bastard and pulling off a close win.

[standwrand]

Voted republican, even though i would MUCH  prefer Hillary out of the crop still remaining. Just don't want to be that person who pretended ted cruz isn't capable of being a slippery bastard and pulling off a close win.

this. Ted Cruz is so much of a snake, he probably could convince the American people to vote for him.

[pbrower2a]

Of the states that have gone for Democrats and Republicans beginning in 2000

Indiana
NE-02
North Carolina

Colorado
Florida
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Iowa
New Hampshire
New Mexico

neither Cruz not Trump has any chance of winning  any state in red. Both look reasonably certain of losing Virginia, which will be enough for a Democratic win of the Presidency in 2016. Colorado, Florida, and Ohio also do the trick for Hillary Clinton.

Figure that if one assumes that Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all have about a 50-50 chance of going for either Cruz or Trump, either has a one-in-sixteen chance of winning the Presidency as a coin-flip probabilities. The states are scattered enough and different enough  in their political climates that formulating a campaign pitch to win all four and campaigning intensively in all of them will not be easy.

A Democrat who has a chance of winning Indiana has already one Ohio, and a Democrat who has a chance of winning North Carolina has already won Virginia. Others? If you are a Republican, you don't want to see what I have to say if the Democratic nominee has either Arizona, Georgia, or Missouri in range of victory.

Kasich is not going to win the nomination by getting anywhere near enough delegates -- or if he does in a brokered convention as a compromise  he will have to make so many compromises with Cruz or Trump that he will alienate too many voters.    

One chance in two in four different states scattered across the country and different enough that the Republican nominee has no reasonable chance of honing a message that resounds well in all four states without shifting the rest of the country? That's how I saw the 2012 election around July. Once chance in sixteen gives the Democrat a 93% chance of winning the election, a long shot for the Republican. Few politicians like those odds  if they are the ones with the 7% chance of winning.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Sadly the Democrats

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Too early to predict, but we're seriously underestimating the GOP and fatigue factor.