Atlas Predicts: Which party will win the 2016 presidential election?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I suppose one could argue that PA has almost the strongest R trend of the group, but the true trend since 1992 there is almost 0. It just so happens that most of the "battleground" states have trended D compared to the nation as a whole since 1992 (the strong R trends come almost exclusively from states which were heavily R in 2012 anyway). Of course, choosing a different starting year will change these results, so you could make the case for a stronger PA R trend starting from 1984 or 2004, but you can also get PA to have a D trend if you start in 1996. It's basically just a near zero longer-term trend there.

If PA, MI, and OH do not trend R, the Republicans do indeed have an electoral problem, because while electoral votes are being reallocated into R states (TX, UT, GA, AZ), Democrats are also flipping R/swing states - states that are also gaining electoral votes (CO, VA, NC, FL).

For a yin, there must be a yang.  But if Republican votes are shifting to suburban areas in heavily Democratic states, or growth in heavily Republican states, and are NOT to be found in the swing states, then they will still have an electoral problem.

The orthodoxy that "the electoral vote will all work out" is a myth.  The more we see states get polarized, the more we're going to see disagreements between the two in one direction or the other.

[Mallow]

I suppose one could argue that PA has almost the strongest R trend of the group, but the true trend since 1992 there is almost 0. It just so happens that most of the "battleground" states have trended D compared to the nation as a whole since 1992 (the strong R trends come almost exclusively from states which were heavily R in 2012 anyway). Of course, choosing a different starting year will change these results, so you could make the case for a stronger PA R trend starting from 1984 or 2004, but you can also get PA to have a D trend if you start in 1996. It's basically just a near zero longer-term trend there.

If PA, MI, and OH do not trend R, the Republicans do indeed have an electoral problem, because while electoral votes are being reallocated into R states (TX, UT, GA, AZ), Democrats are also flipping R/swing states - states that are also gaining electoral votes (CO, VA, NC, FL).

For a yin, there must be a yang.  But if Republican votes are shifting to suburban areas in heavily Democratic states, or growth in heavily Republican states, and are NOT to be found in the swing states, then they will still have an electoral problem.

The orthodoxy that "the electoral vote will all work out" is a myth.  The more we see states get polarized, the more we're going to see disagreements between the two in one direction or the other.

Agreed on all counts. Of course, one must be careful about extrapolating trends forward in time too far, as they can quickly change (see 1960-1992, which saw a number of states swing wildly back and forth several times).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Agreed on all counts. Of course, one must be careful about extrapolating trends forward in time too far, as they can quickly change (see 1960-1992, which saw a number of states swing wildly back and forth several times).

What changed after the 1988 election was the end of the national campaign and the advent of the targeted "battleground" campaign.  Texas is certainly winnable for Democrats, and California for Republicans, but neither party makes any effort whatsoever to steal them, because everything comes down to a strategy for the electoral vote.

Furthermore, the Democrats (Bill Clinton specifically) cynically appropriated the Republican center-right agenda, thus winning the right wing of the Northeast (PA, NJ, DE, CT).

This is why we no longer see these wild swings like we did in the past.

Ted Cruz, if he be the nominee, may get less than 40% of the vote nationwide if the Democrats run any kind of competent campaign.  But Democrats won't even bother in the Red Wall, so what should be a 1964-esque landslide will see Clinton getting well under 400 EVs, probably 370.

[RaphaelDLG]

This, according RCP Demographic Calculator, is a 50.0%-50.0% Election (keeping turnout percentages exactly the same but shaving a few points off of the democratic percentage across all demographic groups).

As you can see, the Democrats win narrowly in the EC 272-266

Lean Republican:  OH, VA, FL
Likely Republican:  NC

Lean Democratic:  CO, MN, IA, WI, PA, NH
Likely Democratic:  OR, NV, NM, MI

Colorado really surprises me.  Especially considering their calculations give Virginia to the Republicans.

It's because Colorado has more latinos.  I'd say that Colorado and Virginia are both lean Democratic swing states but that Colorado is still, despite the NOVA demographic explosion the more liberal of the two.

RCP is very demographic-based and demographically monolithic in it's calculations.  Demographics are the best predictor but other predictors like state culture are important too, as you imply.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Colorado really surprises me.  Especially considering their calculations give Virginia to the Republicans.

It's because Colorado has more latinos.  I'd say that Colorado and Virginia are both lean Democratic swing states but that Colorado is still, despite the NOVA demographic explosion the more liberal of the two.

RCP is very demographic-based and demographically monolithic in it's calculations.  Demographics are the best predictor but other predictors like state culture are important too, as you imply.

I don't think any Republican is going to get to a 50-50 split (or even within 2% of the Democrats) without having significant Latino appeal.  But it gets back to what really ails the GOP, which is fundamental popular demographic problems nationwide.

For the Republicans to win, they need to reinvent themselves as the center-right, pro-business progressive party that the Democrats have been since Bill Clinton took office.  Since the Sandersistas are taking the Democrats to task for this, now the opportunity to occupy this space.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Trump is DOA.

[MT Treasurer]

10-day poll. To be bumped on Nov. 9, 2016.

It will be a close election, but my guess is that the Republicans narrowly prevail in the Electoral college while the Democrats win the popular vote.

Not bad...

[EpicHistory]

Not bad...

Alright, this does win you some points after the New Hampshire fiasco. Congrats on a successful prediction!