NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Jagmeet Singh made a rousing speech at the Alberta NDP convention (perhaps his Obama moment?), which is leading many to speculate he's running.

Wouldn't he be historically in-experienced?

McDonough was also a senior provincial Dipper (NSNDP leader) before becoming federal leader. Layton wasn't in federal politics before becoming leader, and McLaughlin was a freshman MP.

[136or142]

Obviously I'm not asking for any insider information if anybody has any, but if a LEAP Manifesto supporter wins the NDP leadership (especially say Niki  Ashton) and if the Liberals remain governing for the most part on the center left, are there any New Democratic M.Ps you could see crossing the floor to join the Liberals?

The reason I specifically don't want anybody to post insider information is because I don't want to get anybody into any kind of trouble. I'm not asking this to be snarky or whatever, I'm just genuinely curious. 

[Hatman 🍁]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

[adma]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

Well, the entire Alberta NDP would disaffiliate and change their name.

[DC Al Fine]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

Well, the entire Alberta NDP would disaffiliate and change their name.

Hmm, I wonder what they would call themselves. Pro-Oil Social Democratic Party doesn't exactly roll off the tongue.

[136or142]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

Well, the entire Alberta NDP would disaffiliate and change their name.

Hmm, I wonder what they would call themselves. Pro-Oil Social Democratic Party doesn't exactly roll off the tongue.

Maybe just the Democratic Party.

[DL]

One could imagine anyone in the Quebec caucus could switch, I suppose. Maybe Linda Duncan, considering she's in Alberta?

With Rachel Notley in provincial power, I doubt Duncan's going anywhere.

Also Linda Duncan is a very staunch environmentalist who has been a bit ambivalent about Leap herself. She probably agrees with much of it. Actually about 95% of the Leap Manifesto is "motherhood" stuff that any left of Centre person would agree with. The only part that is controversial is the explicit opposition. To new pipelines

[RogueBeaver]

More rules, and as with the Tory race most candidates aren't expected to decide till fall.

[RogueBeaver]

Boulerice is seriously considering a run, also toying with Projet Montréal leadership, though that's unlikely.

[RogueBeaver]

DiNovo has withdrawn after suffering 2 strokes. Best wishes to her.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Hill Times on the poll I conducted: https://www.hilltimes.com/2016/08/15/charlie-would-make-an-incredible-leader-angus-touted-as-potential-ndp-leadership-candidate-chow-tops-poll-of-ndp-supporters/76818

[adma]

At this point, for Olivia Chow to still be in the lead is just plain inertia gone berzerk.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's all name recognition at this point. She won't even run.

[Vega]

Seems like a lot of the post-Cullen momentum has shifted to Charlie Angus. I haven't heard a lot of mention about his lack of French speaking ability.

[Hatman 🍁]

His French isn't very good; I don't even know if he's actually fully bilingual, despite representing a riding with a significant French population.

[RogueBeaver]

What momentum? There hasn't been any leadership news all summer.

[RogueBeaver]

Crossposted from the general thread, but Mulcair may face a caucus coup soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Boulerice is out.

[136or142]

What are Ashton's chances of actually winning?

I'd say it depends on the popularity of the NDP in the months leading up to the convention.  If the NDP is still at the levels they are at now, I'd guess the NDP convention voters will be dominated by the left wing New Democrats and the LEAP Manifesto Supporters and she'd have a very good shot at winning (unless the LEAP backers get behind a different candidate) if the NDP is back to its more traditional level of support around 17-18% I think either a more centrist New Democrat would win, or, more likely, a compromise candidate like Jagmeet Singh.

[DL]

What are Ashton's chances of actually winning?

She is a very weak candidate...even if someone from the left of the party were to win - it would not be her. BTW: I have yet to hear anything from her on Leap - and keep in mind that she is from a mining and forestry based riding in northern Manitoba and she is against gun control

[DL]

It remains to be seen what ideological differences there will be between the candidates. I'm not sure what makes anyone think Nikki Ashton is on the left when she opposes gun control and has avoided saying anything about the Leap Manifesto since her riding is all about resource extraction.

I'm not saying he would make a good leader, but I would say that Peter Julian is very much on the left of the party is about 100 times smarter and more credible than a dingbat like Niki Ashton

[DC Al Fine]

What are Ashton's chances of actually winning?

She is a very weak candidate...even if someone from the left of the party were to win - it would not be her. BTW: I have yet to hear anything from her on Leap - and keep in mind that she is from a mining and forestry based riding in northern Manitoba and she is against gun control

I don't recall her voting to kill the gun registry?

[DL]

When the Tories had votes to kill the gun registry in 2010 Niki Ashton supported it...she had no choice since her riding is in northern Manitoba where almost everyone has a gun and hunts etc...

[Hatman 🍁]

Just remember, Bernie Sanders also doesn't have the best views on gun control.

But I agree, Peter Julian is very, very smart. He's not as well known as Ashton, and therefore isn't as well known outside of activist circles as being a leftist. He's probably the best ROC candidate to appeal to Quebecers (if that's possible), considering he used to live in Quebec, and actually ran provincially there!