NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[King of Kensington]

I'm noticing Caron seems to be be a lot of people's second choice (including mine).  Ed Broadbent also came to his event in Ottawa.

[King of Kensington]

I suspect Singh is the favorite among Atlas New Democrats?

[Jeppe]

He seems most likely to get knocked off first (Caron), since he doesn't have as much of a fervent base as the others.

[Holmes]

I suspect Singh is the favorite among Atlas New Democrats?

I'm undecided. Angus is my MP after all. Singh seems cool, but I don't want a pseudo-Trudeau running the party.

Shrug.

[mileslunn]

I am not an NDP supporter and never would vote NDP, but I think Singh is the best choice.  NDP's best opportunity for gains is amongst millennials not older voters and I think Singh could appeal more to them.  Angus is more a non risk somewhat populist bland type and I think for parties on the right like the Conservatives that is what you want as the demographics who lean right tend to be risk averse and like bland types, but for progressive ones you want a type who can excite the younger voters.  Generally progressive voters do best when young voters show up in big numbers while do worse when they don't.

[adma]

With his L'Etranger and Grievous Angels background, "bland" isn't exactly a fitting descriptor for Angus, nor is the presumption that he wouldn't excite younger voters.  Maybe a different *kind* of younger, hipper demo than Singh, though, if not without overlap...

[Holmes]

Fwiw Angus has done more for NDP ideals than Singh, and as I've said, he really comes off as Layton's natural successor.

[toaster]

With his L'Etranger and Grievous Angels background, "bland" isn't exactly a fitting descriptor for Angus, nor is the presumption that he wouldn't excite younger voters.  Maybe a different *kind* of younger, hipper demo than Singh, though, if not without overlap...

'Hip' for when he was young doesn't necessarily mean 'hip' today.  What's "hip" today is what Singh is all about, inclusiveness, various ethnic backgrounds coming together, different religions, all getting along.  I'm curious what you mean by "different kind" of "hipper demo"?  To me it sounds a lot like you mean a white voter? Angus' "hipper demo" is predominantly white older folk who think what it means to be "hip" is the same as it was 25 years ago, then sure.  It's not 1985 where kids are into the Clash, and the Sex Pistols, and the punk-rock scene. 

[adma]

With his L'Etranger and Grievous Angels background, "bland" isn't exactly a fitting descriptor for Angus, nor is the presumption that he wouldn't excite younger voters.  Maybe a different *kind* of younger, hipper demo than Singh, though, if not without overlap...

'Hip' for when he was young doesn't necessarily mean 'hip' today.  What's "hip" today is what Singh is all about, inclusiveness, various ethnic backgrounds coming together, different religions, all getting along.  I'm curious what you mean by "different kind" of "hipper demo"?  To me it sounds a lot like you mean a white voter? Angus' "hipper demo" is predominantly white older folk who think what it means to be "hip" is the same as it was 25 years ago, then sure.  It's not 1985 where kids are into the Clash, and the Sex Pistols, and the punk-rock scene. 

Angus is still a heck of a lot hipper than Andrew Scheer, even if he's almost old enough to be his (or Singh's, for that matter) father.  And remember that 60ish white guy Jack Layton was also all about inclusiveness bla bla bla all getting along.  Holmes is right: with his one-foot-in-Toronto foundation, Angus makes for a valid Layton heir in his own right--and, really, inherently "hipper" than the establishment-pol aura Mulcair gave off.  His present Achilles heel is his prickliness (and faulty French, of course); but by and large, Angus-hip and Singh-hip (and, for that matter, Ashton-hip) would likely overlap to a greater degree than you're giving credit for.  (Indeed, the only "square" of the present lot seems to be Guy Caron; who's also too amiable to be *square* square.)

I think more to the point is the "Trudeau Liberal in NDP clothing" barb that's been tossed around re Singh.  IOW if your idea of 25-years-after-punk "hip" is, well, the condo-dwelling YIMBY y-u-p-p-i-e s-c-u-m-b-a-g "who's Jane Jacobs?" end of millennialism, that's definitely a different "heirs to hip" kettle of fish.

OTOH perhaps your argument might make sense viz. Singh if one thinks of ethnoburban dynamism as the true "heir to hip", i.e. Brampton and Scarborough, not inner Toronto, being where the action is--culinary, nightlife, overall "progressivism" of outlook.  And that's where the wild-card Singh leadership factor might bear the most electoral fruit...

[mileslunn]

I don't think being older automatically makes one unattractive to millennials.  Sanders was 75 in 2016 and was very popular amongst millennials while in the UK Corbyn is 68 and also did quite well.  Its more if one has ideas that connect well with them.  I do though think Angus is too bland to really connect well with millennials, but unlike the others he is a fairly safe one and probably would stand a better chance than Singh at holding their Quebec support and also is unlikely to scare the NDP-Liberal swing voters as being too left wing the way Ashton might.

[adma]

I do though think Angus is too bland to really connect well with millennials,

To repeat: Angus isn't "bland".  He may, as toaster says, represent "pre-millennialism"; but I can't picture anybody with his kind of punk/roots background being "bland"...

[mileslunn]

I do though think Angus is too bland to really connect well with millennials,

To repeat: Angus isn't "bland".  He may, as toaster says, represent "pre-millennialism"; but I can't picture anybody with his kind of punk/roots background being "bland"...

I agree age isn't the only thing, but how passionate is he when he speaks and can he rile up a crowd of younger people.  Corbyn and Sanders were even older, but they had great passion and could really rile up a crowd of millennials.  Also while income inequality is a major problem in all three countries, social mobility is quite high in Canada while low in both the US and UK thus why people might be more willing to consider radical options in those countries than in Canada.

[adma]

I agree age isn't the only thing, but how passionate is he when he speaks and can he rile up a crowd of younger people.  Corbyn and Sanders were even older, but they had great passion and could really rile up a crowd of millennials.  Also while income inequality is a major problem in all three countries, social mobility is quite high in Canada while low in both the US and UK thus why people might be more willing to consider radical options in those countries than in Canada.

Actually, the *real* danger for Angus lies not in his lacking such passion, but in his suppressing it on behalf of presumptive-frontrunner bragging rights.  That is, he *should* be a Sanders; but is in danger of becoming an easily-sideswiped Hillary Clinton instead.

[King of Kensington]

Actually, the *real* danger for Angus lies not in his lacking such passion, but in his suppressing it on behalf of presumptive-frontrunner bragging rights.  That is, he *should* be a Sanders; but is in danger of becoming an easily-sideswiped Hillary Clinton instead.

That's a very apt assessment. 

[pikachu]

Wouldn't Angus's French be a bigger handicap than his age?

[Poirot]

François Choquette, MP for Drummond is endorsing Ashton. He is one of the MPs who endorsed Peter Julian.

http://www.journalexpress.ca/actualites/politique/2017/8/22/course-a-la-chefferie-du-npd---choquette-appuie-niki-ashton.html

I found on the 2012 NDP leadership wikipedia page that he endorsed her for that race.

[Poirot]

Trois-Rivières MP Robert Aubin, an ex-Julian backer, is endorsing Guy Caron.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201708/23/01-5126992-npd-guy-caron-obtient-lappui-dun-troisieme-depute-du-quebec.php

[RogueBeaver]

Candidates split on the secularism debate here, with Caron and Ashton wanting Dippers to respect the Assnat's jurisdiction while Angus says he doesn't trust pols to dictate minority rights, rather that should be up to courts.

[Poirot]

MP Brigitte Sansoucy (Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot) endorsed Ashton. She had previously endorsed Julian.

Ashton is closing in on Singh for the total number of MP endorsements. 

[mileslunn]

Ashton seems very left wing, in many ways Canada's version of Jeremy Corbyn. Considering how well he did,do you think there is much of a market in Canada for her views of do you guys think she is too left wing to win. UK unlike Canada lacks a viable centrist option (Liberal Democrats are centrist but cannot win) so I am not sure it will work as well. Comparisons to Bernie Sanders are a bit silly as he is only consider radical due to how far to the right the median voter is in the US, in many European countries his policies would be fairly middle of the road while in Canada he would be like the NDP normally is, not a more left wing version.

[adma]

One maybe-problem Niki Ashton's facing now is that in Manitoba's provincial leadership race, her father's being taken to task for "smearing" frontrunner Wab Kinew...

[DL]

The problem with Ashton is not that she's too left wing or that her policies (such that they exist) would be unpopular....it's more that she just isn't very smart and is like a first year student who took one course on Marxism and now just chants stale slogans all day. Corbin in contrast is clearly a very intelligent and substantive man

[toaster]

The problem with Ashton is not that she's too left wing or that her policies (such that they exist) would be unpopular....it's more that she just isn't very smart and is like a first year student who took one course on Marxism and now just chants stale slogans all day. Corbin in contrast is clearly a very intelligent and substantive man

That is a harsh way to put it, but I think you got it pretty spot on.  I've been questioning myself, wondering if the thoughts I have of her are unconsciously based on her gender. I hope they aren't, I don't think they are, in fact, I think Megan Leslie would have been our best chance at winning.  Ashton really does comes off as going as far left for the sake of being "left".  The university student example you gave sums it up pretty well. She also called for the Elbow-gate to be looked at through a "gendered lens" .  The hyper-sensationalism of painting your opponent as terribly as possible, and to do so by often playing victim-like roles, is not what politics should be about.

Angus' plays some of those games too.  It really turns people off politics when you resort to game-playing.  One thing that really turned me off from Angus was when the NDP was filibustering some votes, I forget what it was, but when it was Angus' turn to vote, he took literally over a minute to get out of his seat to stand for his name to be called just to delay an inevitable vote.  Dirty politics.  Bernie would never be playing those dirty games, he fought for what was right because it was right in a clean way.  

[Poirot]

I didn't think Ashton could win. In her last leadership she got a few percent of the vote. The number of MPs endorsements is probably not indicative but she is getting some (and more than Angus, maybe some are waiting in Setember to come public?). When the fundraising numbers came out she was third in the total number of donors but not that far behind. The Mainstreet poll has her in second but it's only past members and donors and not all eligible voters for the next leadership vote. By these measures she doesn't appaear totally out of it so maybe if there is a low number of votes and she attracts motivated activists and leftists she could avoid being third and be in the final round.      

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.