NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[lilTommy]

UFCW endorses Singh.

124k members eligible, up from 41k. Most in BC/ON.

I suspect Jagmeet Singh wins on the first ballot

Interesting is that membership was about 128K for the 2012 leadership, and then shrunk to 41K after 2015 losses. Is this increase in membership driven mostly by net-new members or mostly lapsed members from the  NDP opposition days?

The only Increases came in Ontario and NFLD, but really it's ON, with 15K new members. 

[Jeppe]

Quebec's share of members is pitiful. Caron is almost certain to finish dead last, with his poor fundraising and lack of Quebec members.

My predictions of how the provinces are going to vote

BC
1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Alberta
1. Angus
2. Singh
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Saskatchewan
1. Angus
2. Ashton
3. Singh
4. Caron

Manitoba
1. Ashton
2. Angus
3. Singh
4. Caron

Ontario
1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Quebec
1. Caron
2. Angus
3. Singh
4. Ashton

Maritimes
1. Angus
2. Ashton
3. Caron
4. Singh

[RogueBeaver]

Singh claims 47k+ new members.

[Jeppe]

Singh claims 47k+ new members.

More than the other candidates combined, who would've pulled in 36,000 altogether.

[lilTommy]

Alexa McDonough former Party Leader from 1995-2003 has endorsed Caron

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/08/30/guy-caron-gets-backing-of-former-ndp-leader-mcdonough.html

first former leader of the federal party to make an endorsement (I don't think Mulcair will, that could be seen as the kiss of death); no word yet if we will see Ed Broadbent or Audrey McLaughlin endorse anyone (only other living past leaders of the federal party) another possible "big" endorsement would be from Olivia Chow, who would be seen as making this-would-be-jack's-choice kind of endorsement simply because not only being married, Chow and Layton were politically joined at the hip.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt Olivia will make an endorsement, though I could see Ed making one.

But yeah, if the Singh campaign is telling the truth about recruiting those new members (and the Ontario #s back that up), then I think it's safe to say he will be the front runner going in. Also, considering the membership tripled, then all membership-list based polling will be useless.

[DL]

So if the NDP membership rose from 41,000 to 124,000 that means that there were 83,000 new signups since March of which 47,000 are supposedly sign-ups by the Singh campaign. but that does NOT mean that the other 36,000 were people signed up by other candidates.

I suspect many would simply be lapsed members who renewed on their own to take part in the leadership vote who would not have done so at the behest of any campaign...plus you likely have a lot of new people joining the party on their own in BC due to the provincial election campaign and the NDP forming government plus a lot of people signing up in Manitoba to vote in the provincial leadership race there...so Jagmeet Singh may have a bigger lead than people think.

[RogueBeaver]

Other camps are accusing Singh of inflating his numbers.

[Jeppe]

Most telling part of that article is how Niki's campaign is suddenly praising the Singh campaign, makes it sound like her team is expecting him to win.

[Holmes]

I doubt Olivia will make an endorsement, though I could see Ed making one.

But yeah, if the Singh campaign is telling the truth about recruiting those new members (and the Ontario #s back that up), then I think it's safe to say he will be the front runner going in. Also, considering the membership tripled, then all membership-list based polling will be useless.

They would both endorse Angus.

[DL]

If Olivia Chow were to endorse anyone (and I doubt she would), she'd endorse Jagmeet Singh. A lot of gang who were working for Jack Layton are in this camp now and Jagmeet's campaign manager was EA to Olivia's stepson Mike Layton

[King of Kensington]

Caron's defense of progressive secularism

[DC Al Fine]

Caron's defense of progressive secularism

Hmm I thought Caron supported Bill 62, but he says he opposes it in that piece. Is that a flipflop or was I misinformed?

[DL]

Carin always said that he personally opposed Bill 62, but he also said that the Quebec National Assembly had the right to pass laws like this under the constitution and that it was a debate to Ben resolved in Quebec.

[King of Kensington]

Given that all candidates oppose Bill 62 this "debate" seems to be much ado about nothing.  OTOH Caron does have a point that branding Quebec as "especially racist" won't help the party in Quebec. 

[pikachu]

What are the major policy differences between the candidates? From the outside, it looks they're all differentiating each other by their styles and constituencies they're trying to appeal to, but the ideological differences seem minor. 

[RogueBeaver]

Topp endorses Caron.

[Hatman 🍁]

Topp endorses Caron.

Kiss of death. Poor Caron.

[Jeppe]

What are your predictions for the first ballot?

Mine is

1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

[DL]

Topp endorses Caron.

Kiss of death. Poor Caron.

I'm not so sure about that. Topp is very respected by a lot of people in the party and a large chunk of people supported him for leader in 2012 when he made it to the final ballot. His backing could also be a subtle signal to members in Alberta on who they ought to support

[Jeppe]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

[adma]

I'm really wondering about the possibility of Angus doing the unthinkable and finishing third behind Caron...

[DC Al Fine]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

Not that I'm aware of.

[RogueBeaver]

Belanger's analysis.

[RogueBeaver]

Important Singh announcement tomorrow. Horgan or Julian endorsement? Pretty sure Singh's not dropping out.

Machinists union endorses Singh.