NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[King of Kensington]

They mention 1972 and 1989 were the last big ones (2003 with Jack Layton was more personality but i'd say still power (old guard with Blaikie) vs principles (new school) with Layton) where these "principals vs power" battles come up.

I don't think Audrey McLaughlin vs. Dave Barrett was a left/right or "principles vs. power" split.  In some ways it was an earlier version of Layton/Blaikie - with a more "modern" and "post-materialist" appeal vs. "old guard."  The former put more emphasis into appealing to the young, to social movements, Quebec etc.

Of course Layton turned out to be a much better leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who on earth would even be the 'Right' if McLaughlin/Barrett was a Left/Right split?

[King of Kensington]

I think Steven Langdon was the "leftiest" candidate, a mantle another Windsor MP, Joe Comartin, took up in 2003.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which is saying something given that field in 1989...

[136or142]

They mention 1972 and 1989 were the last big ones (2003 with Jack Layton was more personality but i'd say still power (old guard with Blaikie) vs principles (new school) with Layton) where these "principals vs power" battles come up.

I don't think Audrey McLaughlin vs. Dave Barrett was a left/right or "principles vs. power" split.  In some ways it was an earlier version of Layton/Blaikie - with a more "modern" and "post-materialist" appeal vs. "old guard."  The former put more emphasis into appealing to the young, to social movements, Quebec etc.

Of course Layton turned out to be a much better leader.

In some ways McLaughlin v. Barrett was also an east/west split and a gender split.  McLaughlin's support was as you said, but she was also strongly backed by the Ontario NDP establishment.  I think they regarded Barrett as too much of a potential loose cannon and some were concerned about the party being even more dominated by westerners as at that time 19 of the 44 members of the caucus were from British Columbia.  Although McLaughlin was the M.P for Yukon, she had been a long time resident of Ontario and was apparently fairly well established in Ontario NDP circles.

In that race, Howard McCurdy was the urban candidate, and Simon de Jong was the 'principles first' candidate.

[136or142]

Yes but there are many examples in canadian and Britsih history of once dominant parties being wiped out. Whatever happened to Social Credit that ruled BC for all but three years 1952 to 1991? The Union Nationale in Quebec went from being government in 1970 to 0 seats in 1973 and are now a dead party.

I think these are mainly the result of the decline in rural populations.  Union Nationale likely was a victim to the then growing separatist sentiment, but it has returned in some form as first the ADQ and now CAQ, though these parties are more urban influenced.

Social Credit was a largely Interior B.C dominated party, which made it at times very populist and at times very socially conservative,  but clearly, in terms of them being the 'free enterprise coalition' party, the B.C Liberal Party is the new Social Credit.

[136or142]

Heh, forgot why I came to this thread to post in the first place. There is a new name in the mix that I don't believe has been mentioned on this thread.  The two journalist membe panel on the CBC program 'the House' both mentioned that Jack Layton's son, Mike Layton, was interested in seeking the leadership.

[King of Kensington]

In some ways McLaughlin v. Barrett was also an east/west split and a gender split.  McLaughlin's support was as you said, but she was also strongly backed by the Ontario NDP establishment.  I think they regarded Barrett as too much of a potential loose cannon and some were concerned about the party being even more dominated by westerners as at that time 19 of the 44 members of the caucus were from British Columbia.  Although McLaughlin was the M.P for Yukon, she had been a long time resident of Ontario and was apparently fairly well established in Ontario NDP circles.

Layton was backed by most of the Ontario establishment too, while MPs mostly backed their colleague Blaikie.

The Lewises really disliked Barrett.

[King of Kensington]

Heh, forgot why I came to this thread to post in the first place. There is a new name in the mix that I don't believe has been mentioned on this thread.  The two journalist membe panel on the CBC program 'the House' both mentioned that Jack Layton's son, Mike Layton, was interested in seeking the leadership.

Why?  Not to be too harsh (I don't dislike Mike) but what does he offer besides having his father's last name?  And does he even speak French?

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh, forgot why I came to this thread to post in the first place. There is a new name in the mix that I don't believe has been mentioned on this thread.  The two journalist membe panel on the CBC program 'the House' both mentioned that Jack Layton's son, Mike Layton, was interested in seeking the leadership.

[W]hat does he offer besides having his father's last name? 

That's what we asked about Justin.

[King of Kensington]

1.) I don't think Mike is interested

2.) Justin Trudeau is bilingual and had served as an MP

3.) I thought NDP partisans loved to sneer at "Liberal dynasties"

[Vosem]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

[MaxQue]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

He said he is not running and is obviously very happy as chief of staff of Alberta's Premier.

[King of Kensington]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

Cullen would certainly be a major contender.  He's a continuation of Mulcair's politics but with a much more pleasant personality.  He's also from BC and would be the first leader from there.

[DL]

Just to segue briefly to the 1989 NDP leadership convention, a big factor was the fact that Dave Barrett spoke no French whatsoever - and it didn't help when he dismissed this as being equivalent to not being able to speak Chinese. Remember that in 1988 the NDP had made a major push in Quebec and though they won no seats it was still fresh in peoples minds that Quebec had been so winnable so recently. Also in 1989 the dominant political issue was Meech Lake and so with national unity at the top of the agenda - having a unilingual anglo as leader was a non-starter for many people.

At the same time there was a powerful sentiment in 1989 that the NDP ought to be the first party in Canada to be led by a woman and so McLaughlin's gender helped her a lot.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, the NDP base was very much divided on Charlottetown.  Some argue that by supporting it, the NDP was seen as just another "establishment party." 

To what extent could Barrett have staved off Reform in BC?

In reality, I don't think any leader could have done well in 1993 - with the massive unpopularity of the Rae government and the divide over Charlottetown. 

Barrett certainly had his negatives too and who knows what long-term impact his attitude towards Quebec could have had.

[MaxQue]

Barrett was an idiot, like everyone believing in socalled "Western alienation".

[King of Kensington]

Agree, I think Western alienation and resentment against "Toronto elites" is ultimately conservative.  But in Canada, regional politics trumps class politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

[Vega]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

He is far too like Mulcair policy wise to win.

[King of Kensington]

Yes, and too much like Trudeau.

[Lotuslander]

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

I would agree with that sentiment. But caveat emptor. During the last 2012 NDP leadership race Cullen's website had "Green Party" colours - not NDP colours.

And with the NDP membership discussing the Leap Manifesto over the next few years - climate change is obviously a forefront issue within NDP ranks these days.

Yet here's the situation in Cullen's riding of Skeena- Bulkley Valley:

1. Cullen's riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley is the terminus for major LNG proposals (Petronas, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, CNOOC et al) in the port cities of Kitimat and Prince Rupert.

2. Aside from some fringe elements within the local FN communities, the Haisla FN, 5 Tsimshian FNs, and even now the Lax kw'alaams FN is also on-board. In addition to that all of the communities... Kitimat, Prince Rupert, Terrace, etc. also support LNG. One can basically now say that LNG has obtained "social license" in these areas.

3. Problem is that just one of these LNG proposals will see a major spike in GHG emissions - from natural gas electrical generation at port to a major GHG increase in natural gas fracking in NE BC.

And therein lies the crux of his problem... Cullen can't oppose future LNG development in his riding or he may well lose his seat in 2019. OTOH, Cullen needs to oppose these same LNG developments (with major GHG emissions and climate change) in order to be competitive in the NDP leadership race.

A classic "Catch-22".

[Vega]

^
Is his seat really that close that it could be swung by that? He's won every election, even ones that weren't great for the NDP by 10 points since his first re-election.

Oh, and Cullen also wanted some sort of NDP-Liberal alliance in 2012. That would surely come back to haunt him.

[136or142]

Just to segue briefly to the 1989 NDP leadership convention, a big factor was the fact that Dave Barrett spoke no French whatsoever - and it didn't help when he dismissed this as being equivalent to not being able to speak Chinese. Remember that in 1988 the NDP had made a major push in Quebec and though they won no seats it was still fresh in peoples minds that Quebec had been so winnable so recently. Also in 1989 the dominant political issue was Meech Lake and so with national unity at the top of the agenda - having a unilingual anglo as leader was a non-starter for many people.

At the same time there was a powerful sentiment in 1989 that the NDP ought to be the first party in Canada to be led by a woman and so McLaughlin's gender helped her a lot.

Wasn't it John Crosbie in 1983 who dismissed his inability to speak French to being the same as his not being able to speak Chinese?

[136or142]

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

I would agree with that sentiment. But caveat emptor. During the last 2012 NDP leadership race Cullen's website had "Green Party" colours - not NDP colours.

And with the NDP membership discussing the Leap Manifesto over the next few years - climate change is obviously a forefront issue within NDP ranks these days.

Yet here's the situation in Cullen's riding of Skeena- Bulkley Valley:

1. Cullen's riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley is the terminus for major LNG proposals (Petronas, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, CNOOC et al) in the port cities of Kitimat and Prince Rupert.

2. Aside from some fringe elements within the local FN communities, the Haisla FN, 5 Tsimshian FNs, and even now the Lax kw'alaams FN is also on-board. In addition to that all of the communities... Kitimat, Prince Rupert, Terrace, etc. also support LNG. One can basically now say that LNG has obtained "social license" in these areas.

3. Problem is that just one of these LNG proposals will see a major spike in GHG emissions - from natural gas electrical generation at port to a major GHG increase in natural gas fracking in NE BC.

And therein lies the crux of his problem... Cullen can't oppose future LNG development in his riding or he may well lose his seat in 2019. OTOH, Cullen needs to oppose these same LNG developments (with major GHG emissions and climate change) in order to be competitive in the NDP leadership race.

A classic "Catch-22".

I thought you had left here and weren't coming back.  Did you write this before or after you refused to pay off on our bet that I won fair and square?  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is an anti NDP troll, and a liar  and I would appreciate it if he was banned.

If  it helps to get him banned from here, I have his private message to me where he refuses to pay the money he owes me.

I let this go up to now because I'm not a materialistic person and I don't need the money and I never expected you to pay me if you lost the bet in the first place (though I would have paid you had I lost), but I did so on the assumption that Lotuslander wouldn't post here ever again.