NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

He is far too like Mulcair policy wise to win.

Wasn't just his policy that got him canned. But I digress, Cullen may not win, but he is clearly the front runner at the point if not for any other reason that no one else has emerged yet.

[DL]

IMHO, people often conflate ideology with personal charisma and ability to connect with people - especially in the NDP. Alexa MacDonough was as dull as dishwater and bored everyone to tears and did not motivate party members. Because she also wanted to explore the "third way" in the late after the UK Labour Party had had such success - people in the party equated moving to the centre with being boring.

Then Jack Layton came along who was everything that Alexa MacDonough was not in terms of personal charisma. He was if anything even more dedicated than she had been to making the NDP electable and being more moderate - but the vast majority of party activists were happy because his personal style made them feel good. To a surprising number of NDP members, being on the left just means "able to give a good speech and communicate well and having good emotional intelligence" while being a "centrist" is just code for being a dull technocrat.

Many people have noted that the actual NDP platform in 2015 was more ambitious and more progressive than anything the party had run on in the last 20 years...but Mulcair made it sound wishy-washy because he came across as a "dull technocrat".

In the 2012 NDP leadership contest, Cullen started out as almost a fringe candidate and yet he gained a ton of support during the campaign because he appealed to people as a person. He was literally the only candidate in the race that had modicum of personal appeal (though Paul Dewar sometimes showed traces of it in English only). His proposal to have an electoral alliance with the Liberal raised the floor of his support but also lowered the ceiling. I'm not sure how it is that people are placing Cullen on any ideological spectrum within the party now. Sure in 2012 he wanted to make a deal with the Liberals - but at the time, that was a sentiment expressed by people across the political spectrum within the NDP - and it was something condemned by people across the political spectrum. Today in 2016 it is a moot point. The Liberals are in government now and the Harper Conservatives were crushed despite there being no pre-election electoral alliance between the NDP and the Liberals. So all Cullen has to say is "that was then and this is now".

IMHO, a lot of New Democrats are not looking to elect a leader from the Socialist Caucus, nor are they looking to elect anyone who is 100% behind every clause of the so-called Leap Manifesto. I think the dream candidate would be someone who could take the 2015 NDP platform and run an exciting campaign out of it...and who had good political instincts and personal warmth and willing to listen to people and make good hiring decisions.

[King of Kensington]

To a surprising number of NDP members, being on the left just means "able to give a good speech and communicate well and having good emotional intelligence" while being a "centrist" is just code for being a dull technocrat.

I think there's a good deal of truth to that. 

In some ways that's why Obama was considered more "left-wing" than Hillary Clinton in 2008, even though there's no real ideological difference between them.

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It wasn't.  It was more detailed than 2011, which wasn't a campaign about policy at all, but most of the "ambitious and progressive" stuff appeared in 2008.

The "most ambitious and progressive platform in 20 years" line came from the union leaders supporting Mulcair in defense of his leadership.

And let's not forget that the platform didn't even appear until just before (Canadian) Thanksgiving, long after the basic tone of the campaign had been set.
 

[DL]

In some ways that's why Obama was considered more "left-wing" than Hillary Clinton in 2008, even though there's no real ideological difference between them.

The fact that Obama had opposed the Iraq War from the beginning while Clinton had supported it was also a BIG factor and that was a bigger deal in 2008 than it is in 2016

[136or142]

Nathan Cullen is an unusually creative person for a politician.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair just said on Power Play that the race will be about a year, give or take a couple of months.

[RogueBeaver]

Brosseau is considering.

[Vega]

Brosseau is considering.

YES!

[Hatman 🍁]

Brosseau is considering.

YES!

OMGOMG

[DL]

Brosseau is considering.

It would be nice if the article actually contained a quote or something. Instead it just says that she, along with almost every other MP asked has not "ruled it out". I don't blame her. It's good for her image to be the subject of idle speculation...if someone asked me if I would run for the NDP leadership I would also not rule it out and would bask in all the imagined scenarios about speculation about secret exploratory committees. Why not be coy.

All that being said, being leader of a party is not the same thing as being star of a reality TV show. You have to show evidence that you can be CEO of a party with millions of dollars of assets and liabilities and that you have mastery of complex policy files and that you are a shred tactician etc....with all due respect to Brosseau she has exceeded expectations as a local MP but I think people,are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves in thinking she is leadership material right now. She's still only 28 years old for god sake

[lilTommy]

Brosseau is considering.

It would be nice if the article actually contained a quote or something. Instead it just says that she, along with almost every other MP asked has not "ruled it out". I don't blame her. It's good for her image to be the subject of idle speculation...if someone asked me if I would run for the NDP leadership I would also not rule it out and would bask in all the imagined scenarios about speculation about secret exploratory committees. Why not be coy.

All that being said, being leader of a party is not the same thing as being star of a reality TV show. You have to show evidence that you can be CEO of a party with millions of dollars of assets and liabilities and that you have mastery of complex policy files and that you are a shred tactician etc....with all due respect to Brosseau she has exceeded expectations as a local MP but I think people,are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves in thinking she is leadership material right now. She's still only 28 years old for god sake

Much of that was said of Trudeau... Ruth is 31, not 28.
That's kind of an ageist comment no? experience is not to be equated with age. Niki Ashton is only 33, and was in her lat 20's at the time of the NDP leadership race that she contested. She did not win or place among top contenders, but it cannot be said that she lacks leadership or experience or ability to grasp policy.
If she runs and IF she were to win she would be 35ish by the 2019 election, young but have 8 years, 2 terms as an MP and 3-4 as leader... Trudeau was in his second term as well before being elected leader in 2013, and had less experience as leader, only about 2 years, then Brosseau would have.

[136or142]

Brosseau is considering.

It would be nice if the article actually contained a quote or something. Instead it just says that she, along with almost every other MP asked has not "ruled it out". I don't blame her. It's good for her image to be the subject of idle speculation...if someone asked me if I would run for the NDP leadership I would also not rule it out and would bask in all the imagined scenarios about speculation about secret exploratory committees. Why not be coy.

All that being said, being leader of a party is not the same thing as being star of a reality TV show. You have to show evidence that you can be CEO of a party with millions of dollars of assets and liabilities and that you have mastery of complex policy files and that you are a shred tactician etc....with all due respect to Brosseau she has exceeded expectations as a local MP but I think people,are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves in thinking she is leadership material right now. She's still only 28 years old for god sake

Brosseau will win the leadership if at the time of the convention she is on holiday in Las Vegas.

[DL]

Much of that was said of Trudeau...

Yes it was but Trudeau had been an MP for longer, had grown up at 24 Sussex Drive and therefor had some conception of what the job of PM consisted of, had some post-secondary education AND had some smart people around him to help cover up how shallow he is. He was also a leader of a party that makes no pretence to standing for anything or having any core values.

The worst mistake parties tend to make in picking leaders is in trying to refight the last election. If the attitude is "the Liberals won in 2015 because they were led by a good looking airhead who posed for lots of selfies - therefor we have to find another goodlooking leader who poses for lots of selfies for the 2019" - its a recipe for disaster. I can just imagine NDP billboards in 2019 showing Trudeau and REB side by side with a caption that says "Ours is prettier"

This is not a serious discussion.

[Hatman 🍁]

Stop ruining our fun, DL. This isn't the first time we've heard about a REB candidacy. Her story is right out of a movie; I think she would attract a lot of attention. Of course, she may not be able to carry herself in a national campaign (yet), so it would be a gamble. But there's a reason why she was the only NDP MP to see a positive swing in her riding. You can't ignore that kind of hard data.

[Poirot]

A quote of her answer:

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[DL]

Stop ruining our fun, DL. This isn't the first time we've heard about a REB candidacy. Her story is right out of a movie; I think she would attract a lot of attention. Of course, she may not be able to carry herself in a national campaign (yet), so it would be a gamble. But there's a reason why she was the only NDP MP to see a positive swing in her riding. You can't ignore that kind of hard data.

The factors that make someone successful at the riding level have almost nothing to do with the attributes of being a national party leader. At the riding level its all about person to person contact...and on top of that the bar she had to pass to be seen as a good MP was very very low. Previous MPs from that riding had been totally invisible, and there was a myth that she spoke no French at all when in fact she had been to French immersion in elementary school...but at the national leadership level there would be totally different expectations and the bar would be very high not very low.

The reason REB's name gets bandied about at all is that people are engaging in "magical thinking" that somehow the way to compete with Trudeau is to find another bright shiny object that is bilingual.  There is a lot more to leading a party than that.

Having an inspiring personal narrative is a wonderful thing...but its only one part of what you need to be to lead a party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Party pooper

[136or142]

Stop ruining our fun, DL. This isn't the first time we've heard about a REB candidacy. Her story is right out of a movie; I think she would attract a lot of attention. Of course, she may not be able to carry herself in a national campaign (yet), so it would be a gamble. But there's a reason why she was the only NDP MP to see a positive swing in her riding. You can't ignore that kind of hard data.

The factors that make someone successful at the riding level have almost nothing to do with the attributes of being a national party leader. At the riding level its all about person to person contact...and on top of that the bar she had to pass to be seen as a good MP was very very low. Previous MPs from that riding had been totally invisible, and there was a myth that she spoke no French at all when in fact she had been to French immersion in elementary school...but at the national leadership level there would be totally different expectations and the bar would be very high not very low.

The reason REB's name gets bandied about at all is that people are engaging in "magical thinking" that somehow the way to compete with Trudeau is to find another bright shiny object that is bilingual.  There is a lot more to leading a party than that.

Having an inspiring personal narrative is a wonderful thing...but its only one part of what you need to be to lead a party.

Didn't you also say that when I pointed out that Linda McQuaig learned French in Paris in the mid 1970s that she had forgotten all of it.  Ruth Ellen Brosseau taking French immersion in elementary school would have been about 15 years prior.  It's entirely possible she had similarly forgotten all of it.

On the other hand though, I more or less agree with you.  I think she would be a reasonable choice for interim leader, if the party decided it didn't want Mulcair to remain on for 1-2 years.

[DL]

Didn't you also say that when I pointed out that Linda McQuaig learned French in Paris in the mid 1970s that she had forgotten all of it.  Ruth Ellen Brosseau taking French immersion in elementary school would have been about 15 years prior.  It's entirely possible she had similarly forgotten all of it.

Yes but after having been "accidentally elected" REB had 4.5 years in which to focus 100% on being the MP for a totally francophone riding and immerse herself in the language...and realistically since Berthier-Maskinonge is 99% French - every time she set foot in her riding it was an immersion exercise. But as an MP she just needs to talk to constituents about how to apply for a passport and have the odd meeting with a local mayor. She doesnt have to do a two hour debate in prime time in French with other party leaders who are native speakers of French or be grilled by national media on the latest controversies. She was able to take years learning French away from any national scrutiny.

Whoever becomes the next federal NDP leader is going to have to hit the ground running immediately. It would be an 18-hour a day job even for someone who was perfectly bilingual from the start...so where would the time be for CRASH French lessons? And the expectation is that a candidate to lead a national party is perfectly bilingual the day the day declare their candidacy...not "gee my French is REALLY rusty, but I promise that if you make me your leader I'll take some Berlitz courses in time for the 2019 election"

[Vega]

I have to wonder that if the Official Languages Act had not been passed in the early 70s if so much emphasis would be placed on a leader's knowledge of French.

Was it like this prior to 1972?

[RogueBeaver]

No. Pearson, Diefenbaker, King were all unilingual, and the situation regarding bilingualism was completely different. Liberals had Quebec lieutenants (or as deputy PM in Lapointe's case) to run Quebec issues for them.

[136or142]

No. Pearson, Diefenbaker, King were all unilingual, and the situation regarding bilingualism was completely different. Liberals had Quebec lieutenants (or as deputy PM in Lapointe's case) to run Quebec issues for them.

I suspect this has more to do with the Quiet Revolution.  I think it's perfectly understandable that 25% of the population of the country would find it unacceptable to have a Prime Minister who can't speak in their language.  Unless it's somebody like Jean Chretien who couldn't speak any language.

[Vega]

No. Pearson, Diefenbaker, King were all unilingual, and the situation regarding bilingualism was completely different. Liberals had Quebec lieutenants (or as deputy PM in Lapointe's case) to run Quebec issues for them.

I suspect this has more to do with the Quiet Revolution.  I think it's perfectly understandable that 25% of the population of the country would find it unacceptable to have a Prime Minister who can't speak in their language.  Unless it's somebody like Jean Chretien who couldn't speak any language.

It is curious to think about that though. I do wonder if it not passing and there not being official bilingualism would have changed Canadian politics much.

[RogueBeaver]

OLA was a symptom, not the cause, as Adam pointed out. The linguistic onus shifted from Francophones to Anglophones. As for the topic at hand, REB running for leader is silly for reasons DL mentioned. Boulerice will likely be our province's candidate.

[MaxQue]

Didn't you also say that when I pointed out that Linda McQuaig learned French in Paris in the mid 1970s that she had forgotten all of it.  Ruth Ellen Brosseau taking French immersion in elementary school would have been about 15 years prior.  It's entirely possible she had similarly forgotten all of it.

Yes but after having been "accidentally elected" REB had 4.5 years in which to focus 100% on being the MP for a totally francophone riding and immerse herself in the language...and realistically since Berthier-Maskinonge is 99% French - every time she set foot in her riding it was an immersion exercise. But as an MP she just needs to talk to constituents about how to apply for a passport and have the odd meeting with a local mayor. She doesnt have to do a two hour debate in prime time in French with other party leaders who are native speakers of French or be grilled by national media on the latest controversies. She was able to take years learning French away from any national scrutiny.

Whoever becomes the next federal NDP leader is going to have to hit the ground running immediately. It would be an 18-hour a day job even for someone who was perfectly bilingual from the start...so where would the time be for CRASH French lessons? And the expectation is that a candidate to lead a national party is perfectly bilingual the day the day declare their candidacy...not "gee my French is REALLY rusty, but I promise that if you make me your leader I'll take some Berlitz courses in time for the 2019 election"

Having seen her on TV since then, she clearly needs no more courses. She is pretty much bilingual.

And she had to deal with unilingual mayors (a lot of them) and unilingual constituents. And to do a 3 months campaign in French.

But, yeah, it's one leadership election too early.