NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Holmes]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

That's interesting, and maybe true on paper, but are there any ridings in particular you can think of? I'm thinking he could have appeal in Tory ridings in Northern Ontario and SW Ontario, and maybe urban Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Maybe some parts in BC.

[MAINEiac4434]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

I'd be more worried about the Liberals if I were an NDP supporter. Trudeau is really popular among promiscuous progressives. That's annoying for a Tory, but horrifying for a Dipper.

This. The NDP needs to cut into the Liberals' numbers to keep them honest.

[Holmes]

An honest Liberal? It's just not realistic.

[RogueBeaver]

Tim Harper: Singh favoured, will probably lead in membership sales. His establishment backers are still a bit nervous.

[adma]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

That's interesting, and maybe true on paper, but are there any ridings in particular you can think of? I'm thinking he could have appeal in Tory ridings in Northern Ontario and SW Ontario, and maybe urban Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Maybe some parts in BC.

In general, I think of Angus as having the most "Sanders Republican" reach, i.e. the likeliest to channel a "Tommy Douglas traditionalist" dynamic, or to crack the rural-west firewall even Layton couldn't breach.  That is, unless CPC ridings in the West are simply too far gone at this point.

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

[Holmes]

That's only because politically, Timmins sucks.

[toaster]

Timmins has always been a weak spot within the Timmins-James Bay riding for the NDP.  I believe the Liberals actually won in the city limits of Timmins in 20165.  It is similar to Sudbury, the reason it appears to be a stronghold for the NDP is because of the Northern Part of the riding.

[adma]

Timmins has always been a weak spot within the Timmins-James Bay riding for the NDP.  I believe the Liberals actually won in the city limits of Timmins in 20165.  It is similar to Sudbury, the reason it appears to be a stronghold for the NDP is because of the Northern Part of the riding.

But there's also an element of "more of a Charlie Angus riding than an NDP riding" within Timiskaming--pre-Angus, there was a pattern there of strong Conservative support with a Confederation of Regions undercurrent for good measure...

[Poirot]

Angus has the support of MP Christine Moore. Her Abitibi-Témiscamingue riding borders northern Ontario.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1048308/course-a-la-direction-du-npd-christine-moore-appuie-charlie-angus

[MaxQue]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

That's interesting, and maybe true on paper, but are there any ridings in particular you can think of? I'm thinking he could have appeal in Tory ridings in Northern Ontario and SW Ontario, and maybe urban Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Maybe some parts in BC.

In general, I think of Angus as having the most "Sanders Republican" reach, i.e. the likeliest to channel a "Tommy Douglas traditionalist" dynamic, or to crack the rural-west firewall even Layton couldn't breach.  That is, unless CPC ridings in the West are simply too far gone at this point.

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

[RogueBeaver]

BC MP Alistair McGregor endorses Singh.

[adma]

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

Or more like: non-reserve rural/small-town "populist", cities "establishment".  A bit like how areas which favoured Reform over PC in the 90s morphed into having outsize Layton-era NDP (and/or undersize Liberal) shares.

What's interesting about Angus's Timiskaming clout is that it'd be like the NDP outperforming *today* in rural Saskatchewan.

[MaxQue]

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

Or more like: non-reserve rural/small-town "populist", cities "establishment".  A bit like how areas which favoured Reform over PC in the 90s morphed into having outsize Layton-era NDP (and/or undersize Liberal) shares.

What's interesting about Angus's Timiskaming clout is that it'd be like the NDP outperforming *today* in rural Saskatchewan.

Timiskaming is nothing like rural Saskatchewan, through.

[adma]

Timiskaming is nothing like rural Saskatchewan, through.

Not to the same landslide-Conservative degree, of course.  But, still: think of it like the NDP doing better in the rural part of Prince Albert than within the city.  (Though there may be Sask cases where, in 2015, the NDP-to-Liberal ratio might have been greater in rural than urban areas--the "cosmopolitan" Liberal rep vs vestigial "Tommy Douglas traditionalism", I suppose.)

Oh, and there's another (maybe more New Brunswickian) factor to consider behind historical (i.e. pre-Angus/pre-Vanthof) Tory strength in Timiskaming and this general geography: the traditional divide btw/the Franco-Catholic and Anglo-Protestant vote, the latter of which explains bygone Confederation of Regions strength in places like Engelhart et al.

[Poirot]

Guy Caron received the endorsement of Anne Minh-Thu Quach, Salaberry-Suroît MP.

Angus has the most unique donors after the second quarter numbers as shown on a graph on this page. Singh is second (he's been in the race for less time though).
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-singh-fundraising-1.4230573

[Holmes]

I do get the impression that Angus is more Layton's successor while Singh is more Trudeau adjacent.

[Boston Bread]

Can't find a non-paywalled link, but Mainstreet has Angus leading:
Angus 28%
Ashton 17%
Caron 11%
Singh 9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/09/angus-leading-in-leadership-polling-among-ndp-members/

[DL]

Can't find a non-paywalled link, but Mainstreet has Angus leading:
Angus 28%
Ashton 17%
Caron 11%
Singh 9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/09/angus-leading-in-leadership-polling-among-ndp-members/

So compared to the previous Mainstreet poll, Angus is up 4, Ashton is down 5, Caron is up 3 and Singh is up 2 (and DK in down a bit too). Of course ths poll would have ZERO new members signed up in the last few months

[TheSaint250]

Who is the NDP's best candidate right now?

[RogueBeaver]

Tracey Ramsey endorses Singh. Brian Masse endorsed him a couple of days ago.

[mileslunn]

Can't find a non-paywalled link, but Mainstreet has Angus leading:
Angus 28%
Ashton 17%
Caron 11%
Singh 9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/09/angus-leading-in-leadership-polling-among-ndp-members/

Surprised Singh is so low but considering Mainstreet stated it was a certainty Bernier would be the next Conservative leader take their polls with a grain of salt.  I think Singh is the best choice as he could connect well with the young much like Trudeau does and pick up many millennial voters.  Yes some fear they may create the splits to allow the Tories to win, but as long as the Tories stay under 1/3 there is no risk of this, but if they climb above 35% it becomes a problem then which they haven't so far as they have a resilient strong base, but limited appeal beyond that at the moment.  Some worry being a Sikh he might lose Quebec, but asides from Caron, I think Quebec is likely lost anyway so it will be BC and Ontario where their focus should be.

As a side note what do you think the chances of Niki Ashton winning are as she seems like our Jeremy Corbyn, otherwise way out in left field.  And do you think like Corbyn her staunchly left wing ideas would gain much traction or are they a little too much for Canadians (we don't have the same polarization Britain does).

[Lotuslander]

Frankly, I can't see the difference between the candidates - they could all be considered to be 2nd Tier type candidates appealing to different NDP internal constituencies. Different from appealing to the electorate during a general whereby nothing here stands out IMHO.

Fed NDP has one individual, though, that I believe could/would have stood out to the electorate at large during a general - none other than fed NDP president Marit Stiles - attractive, good communication skills, likable, moderate, non-threatening, intelligent, charismatic, down-to-earth, connects with folk, fluent in French, etc. Unfortunate that she did not take the leap:

[RogueBeaver]

If elected, Singh wouldn't seek a seat till 2019.

[mileslunn]

If elected, Singh wouldn't seek a seat till 2019.

Dumb, dumb idea.

[RogueBeaver]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.