NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[mileslunn]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.

He was chosen only a year before the election whereas Singh would be 2 years and Layton was frequently mocked for not running for a seat.

[DC Al Fine]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.

He was chosen only a year before the election whereas Singh would be 2 years and Layton was frequently mocked for not running for a seat.

Also Layton had a caucus of like 12 only one or two of which could reasonably be called safe, and would have had to face the Martin juggernaut. The 2017 NDP situation isn't comparable to Layton's predicament.

[DL]

Parliament is sooo over rated. Mulcair was a star in question period and no one have a sh**t. Trudeau almost never showed up I. Parliament and May as well have not been an MP at all and he is now PM

[MAINEiac4434]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.

It's not 2003 anymore. If Singh is elected, he needs to get into parliament as soon as possible. The NDP has countless safe seats.

[toaster]

I've been very interesting watching where the ONDP caucus is putting their support.  It seems now that Bisson, Gélinas, and Vanthof are the only three supporting Angus, DiNovo to Ashton, Tabuns supports Caron, while the rest have gone with Singh.  Bisson and Vanthof are understandable, as their provincial ridings fall in parts of Angus' federal riding.  Gélinas surprised me a little bit, opting to go with basically unilingual Angus over her bilingual colleague, Singh.  Angus said in one of the debates (I believe the Sudbury one) that the NDP would win all of Northern Ontario if he is elected leader, yet he wasn't able to convince prominent Northern Ontario NDP members like Michael Mantha, Howard Hampton, and Shelley Martel, who have all gone elsewhere. 

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

[MAINEiac4434]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

[Jeppe]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

[Lotuslander]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

[MAINEiac4434]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

Could this have been an effect of the Liberal wave? Could traditional NDP voters have wanted so desperately to get the Tories out that they voted Liberal just to make sure?

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

What about Shane Simpson's seat next door as not sure how much longer he will stay on but good point.  As for safe seats I guess the concern is I don't generally look at just one election but look at the last decade as in the 2015 election you had lots of ridings that based on 2011 results appeared to be safe NDP or safe Conservative yet they ended up losing.  Heck even for the Conservatives outside some Calgary and rural Prairies their number of safe seats is much lower than some think.  In the Fraser Valley, BC Interior, and Rural Ontario, the Tories did win most of those but the margins weren't particularly strong and in fact a year ago when Trudeau was riding high in the polls they probably would have lost those.  Right now they probably would hold them as things have more or less returned back to where they were in 2015, but still might be a gamble, think John Tory running in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and losing that which is normally a safe Tory seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

Singh does have some Windsor roots, but I wouldn't call either seat safe, so it would be a risk.

Singh is better off waiting for the next election. The embarrassment of losing a by-election a la John Tory would make leading the party impossible. However, if any Brampton or Surrey based riding suddenly become vacant, it would be too tempting not to contest.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

True the federal NDP does often suffer when the BC NDP is in power although I don't think they will tank quite as far and I say this as a BC Liberal supporter myself.  The millennials in BC are a lot more progressive than previous generations so that gives them a much stronger base to work from and also I think in BC there is still a fairly strong fatigue with the right as lets remember for the past 10 years at both levels of government we were dominated by parties on the right.  I am not suggesting the NDP won't lose seats in BC next federal election or the BC NDP won't get defeated, both are very possible but it's not a foregone conclusion even if historical precedent would say it is.

[adma]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.

Why not as the Liberals and Tories did this so I think it would be a great idea to extend it to the NDP.  Also when the Canadian Alliance existed, the Liberals didn't run a candidate against either Stockwell Day or Stephen Harper despite the fact the Alliance didn't return the courtesy for the PCs against Joe Clark.  And if they did this it is not unreasonable to expect the NDP would reciprocate someday (not that Trudeau is likely going anywhere anytime soon, but I am talking about down the road).  It was the Mulroney PCs who started this tradition when they didn't run a candidate against Chretien in 1990.

[Poirot]

Charlie Angus was endorsed by various labour leaders.
http://www.timminspress.com/2017/08/11/charlie-angus-is-endorsed-by-labour-leaders

He also received the endorsement of a second MP, Carol Hughes of Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing. he is now tied with Caron and Ashton on MPs endorsements. Ashton got he seconf by Georgina Jolibois from northern Saskatchewan. Singh has seven MPs supporting him.

[lilTommy]

Charlie Angus was endorsed by various labour leaders.
http://www.timminspress.com/2017/08/11/charlie-angus-is-endorsed-by-labour-leaders

He also received the endorsement of a second MP, Carol Hughes of Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing. he is now tied with Caron and Ashton on MPs endorsements. Ashton got he seconf by Georgina Jolibois from northern Saskatchewan. Singh has seven MPs supporting him.

Angus just scored huge, David Suzuki has endorsed him.

[Poirot]

I'm a bit surprised since a couple of months ago Ashton and Julian were clear on their opposition to pipelines and Angus was more vague.

[lilTommy]

I'm a bit surprised since a couple of months ago Ashton and Julian were clear on their opposition to pipelines and Angus was more vague.

Here is Suzuki's reasoning - http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/08/14/david-suzuki-endorses-charlie-angus-as-next-ndp-leader_a_23076971/

[MAINEiac4434]

Huge get for Angus. Wow.

[Poirot]

Angus has urged New Democrats to move beyond so-called pipeline politics. The centrepiece of his climate policy is a carbon budget that will cap nation emissions over a rolling five-year period.

On his website:
We need to be much more ambitious about emissions reductions than we currently are, and identify methods of reducing our emissions that will not jeopardize our economic competitiveness.

I guess he doesn't want pipelines to be an issue. There are concrete projects that a segment of the population opposes. That could be a way to differentiate from the Liberals with environmentaly concerned voters. I understand if you seek power you try to be more fence sitter but I thought they want to show they are more left.

[Poirot]

Roméo Saganash, MP for Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou, supports Niki Ashton.
actualite.com/actualites/2017/08/15/course-a-la-direction-au-npd-lex-depute-yvon-godin-appuie-guy-caron/

François Soucy who was co-campaign organizer for Peter Julian is now for Ashton.

Former MP Yvon Godin supports Guy Caron.