NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[mileslunn]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

True enough although I think in BC the real wildcard is how popular will the provincial NDP be then.  The federal NDP has tended to do better when their provincial cousins are in opposition than government.  1974, 1993, 1997, and 2000 were all disasters for the NDP in BC.  Now off course past BC NDP governments also had low approval ratings so if Horgan does a good job that might help them, but just saying I think how well the provincial NDP performs could have an impact.  On the other hand I think the NDP has potential in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  There was an unpopular NDP government in Manitoba in October 2015 which has now been turfed from office so wouldn't be surprised if they recover a bit much like they did in BC in 2004 when the BC NDP was gone while in Saskatchewan, that was when Brad Wall had a 2/3 approval rating so probably helped the Conservatives whereas now the Saskatchewan Party's approval rating is down in the 40s so less of an asset for the Conservatives than it was in 2015.

[Boston Bread]

According this article, https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/09/22/if-jagmeet-singh-wins-the-ndp-leadership-dont-assume-he-will-be-rejected-in-quebec-hbert.html

There are good odds at two NDP MPs in Quebec could cross over to the BQ if Singh wins. The article just glanced over the suggestion, but it seems like it should be a big deal. It could embarass the party during what should be a honeymoon period for Singh.

[RogueBeaver]

That's what the Bloc thinks, Hebert says to discount that.

[Hatman 🍁]

good riddance if they're separatists. I don't mind nationalists in my party, but if you want your province to separate, then you do not belong in the NDP.

[136or142]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

In Surrey, I don't think Liberal M.P Sukh Dhaliwal will go down without a fight, he has an enormous campaign organization.  Also, don't forget that the Sikh community is divided between the Fundamentalist Sikhs who tend to support the Conservatives, but also support right leaning Sikhs like Sukh Dhaliwal and the Moderate Sikhs who tend to be New Democrats (and left leaning Liberals.)

[136or142]

Bingo! The likes of Scheer and Trost are huge zealots, constantly throwing their religion in people faces demanding puritan christian policies, but don't wear anything overtly religious.

At worst, maybe, Scheer'd be a stalking horse for the Trost/Lemieux contingent.  But on the whole, through past speakerdom et al, I think he might know well enough to be (or at least appear) reasonably pragmatic as leader--or at least, closer in operation to Rona Ambrose than to Trost/Lemieux.  (But keep in mind that "closer to" can still mean "to the right of".)

I think a lot will too depend on the polls and how vulnerable the Liberals are.  If the Liberals are fairly popular in 2019 and look like they will win no matter what, he might take more of a right wing tack to motivate the base to show up, but if the Liberals appear vulnerable he will probably want to take a more centrist tack to try either reduce them to a minority or win outright.  I find parties when they no they are going to lose focus more on their base while if they think they can win or gain seats then go after the swing voters.  While some may point to Trudeau running to the left of the NDP last federal election his platform was centre-left not hard left and generally in line with what voters wanted.

I'd be surprised if this was the case because it seems to me that the Conservatives have put themselves so much in a bubble that they genuinely believe that the issues that they demagogue that have appeal to their 30-33% base of Canadians are issues that all Canadians are concerned about.

True a lot are in that category although all parties do run focus groups and internal polls and tend to go based on those.  If you look since the house returned, the focus from the Tories is on tax changes not Omar Khadr settlement or border jumpers and I suspect their internal numbers showed those were vote losing.  Now yes internal numbers can be deceptive, I believe part of the reason many in the Harper government thought they would win again is they not only underestimated Justin Trudeau, they assumed voter turnout would be the same or lower as if voter turnout was only 61% like 2011 vs. 69% like in 2015 the election would have been a lot closer, otherwise the new voters who showed up overwhelmingly went Liberal and I think much like the polls underestimated Labour in Britain they underestimated the surge in turnout amongst younger voters.

That is not to say I actually think the Tories are likely to win in 2019, I don't think they are.  Just that all parties want to win so they usually tend to only push as far as they think they can.

 As for the NDP leadership race I also doubt whomever is chosen will become next PM, but could certainly reduce the Liberals to a minority and thus pull them leftward like was the case under Pearson and Trudeau 1972-1974.  Always a possibility of a surprise like we saw in Alberta but with Trudeau being a progressive leaning liberal seems unlikely.  There actually is a lot more room on the right to pick up votes, but the Tories seem to have a tendency to ignore this group or when they do reach out like Patrick Brown in Ontario has, the more ideological elements threaten to leave the party.

1.I think you mean David Lewis and Pierre Trudeau from 1972-1974.

2.The early polls showed that the Khadr payout was much more unpopular than these tax changes ever were.  I would still expect the Conservatives to raise/demagogue the Khadr issue in this session of Parliament, so I wouldn't read too much in to that they haven't brought it up yet.

This Khadr thing for Conservatives isn't all that much different from these small business tax changes.  In the case of Khadr, the Conservatives clearly looked at the topline polling numbers and the letters to the editor from people who were the most OUTRAGED! over the Khadr settlement and never noticed the polling that showed that, while Canadians were unhappy with the payout, outside of the usual 30-33% Canadian suspects, most Canadians had much more nuanced views over it.

Not really a surprise the polling data of electoral preferences really showed no changes after that.

In the case of these small business tax changes, I think this is a bit more complicated in terms of electoral effects, but mostly around the margins.  I would certainly expect that the Liberals will lose the votes from some small business owners who will pay greater tax as a result of these tax changes (or are in a genuine position to expect to be effected by these changes), and I would expect that most of those 2015 Liberal voters are medical doctors or dentists, but...

A.The campaign against these tax changes from the small business community has been built on a series of outright lies and falsehoods, and the Conservatives have repeated some of the outright lies and falsehoods in the House of Commons.  We are finally seeing a push-back to this dishonest campaign from some smaller lawyer and doctors organizations.

B.While the Conservatives themselves have been mostly careful to stay away from some of the over the top rhetoric from these business organizations, a quick look at twitter and facebook suggests there is some push-back and resentment from working class non business owning Canadians to the suggestion that 'business owners take all the risks' and that their workers have 'no risks' in being just wage earning employees.  Given the amount of effort that Prime Minister Stephen Harper put into wooing the workers who live 'paycheck to paycheck' (for instance, Harper's one major tax cut was the 2% reduction in the GST), I would certainly expect that the Conservatives risk losing some of this working class base as the Conservatives choose to defend a group of people who have insulted them, even though the Conservatives have not used that rhetoric themselves.

 

[136or142]

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

I think this editorial is a good summation of the NDP itself and the leadership race.  From the way I see it (not mentioned in this editorial), the NDP essentially is a coalition of four groups: academics, unions, organized social activists and disorganized social activists.

There is obviously considerable cross over in terms of candidate appeals, but essentially the academics support Guy Caron, the unions support Charlie Angus, the organized social activists support Jagmeet Singh and the disorganized social activists support Niki Ashton.

It's not necessarily a surprise then that the policy proposals of Caron, Angus and Singh would be quite similar while their styles and issue emphasis would be different while Niki Ashton would be a (much) further left agitator.

[DC Al Fine]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

Do we know how Sikh's voted in 2015? I would assume they are more Liberal than the average voter, but they were overwhelmingly Liberal (e.g 80%  Liberal instead of 45%), the NDP would presumably have more room for gains.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

Do we know how Sikh's voted in 2015? I would assume they are more Liberal than the average voter, but they were overwhelmingly Liberal (e.g 80%  Liberal instead of 45%), the NDP would presumably have more room for gains.

Too small a population to properly poll, but I'd imagine they went about (at least) 50% Liberal, but probably went NDP in 2011.

[RogueBeaver]

Singh will run in Brampton East.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh will run in Brampton East.

Not a surprise. He would have won the riding in 2011 if it had its current borders, so it is an even better fit than his larger provincial riding.

[Lotuslander]

Might as well throw this recent Vancouver Sun article into the mix:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-sikhs-air-mixed-views-on-ndps-jagmeet-singh

[Holmes]

I love seeing Quebec separatists trip over themselves to prove which one of them is the bigger bigot.

[Jeppe]

Singh expanding his lead in the new Mainstreet poll.

https://ipolitics.ca/2017/09/28/singh-leading-ndp-race-overall-including-quebec-mainstreet-poll/

[mileslunn]

So do you think it will be Singh on the first ballot?  I think he will win, although Angus should do reasonably well.  Singh has the potential to appeal to younger urban type millennials who went largely Liberal last time around as well as could make inroads in the ethnic communities.  Angus is more a left leaning populist so can appeal to your traditional blue collar workers.  Not sure how many of these type voters exist today, but I think Singh is much better to pick up Lib-NDP switchers whereas I think Angus is better to pick up Tory-NDP switchers but while there used to be a lot of those, not sure how many exists nowadays.  Caron would be best for the party in Quebec, but cannot see him getting much traction elsewhere.  Ashton would be a disaster, but she might do well amongst the left flank who wrongly assume Corbyn and Sanders' success is proof going further left forgetting both are very different than her and also different circumstances too.

[brucejoel99]

Party says voter turnout is 52.8%, seen as a good sign for Jagmeet Singh

[RogueBeaver]

SINGH WINS

[trebor204]

Singh wins with 53%

[Boston Bread]

Charlie Angus: 12,705 Niki Ashton: 11,374 Jagmeet Singh: 35,266 Guy Caron: 6,164

[brucejoel99]

Jagmeet Singh is the new Leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, on the 1st round of voting, with 53.8% of the vote

Jagmeet Singh: 35,266 (53.8%)
Charlie Angus: 12,705 (19.4%)
Niki Ashton: 11,374 (17.4%)
Guy Caron: 6,164 (9.4%)

TOTAL # OF VOTES CAST: 65,782
REJECTED BALLOTS: 101
TOTAL # OF ABSTENTIONS: 172

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he will be the next NDP leader.

I will now accept my accolades.

[mileslunn]

No NDP supporter myself but I said all along Jagmeet Singh was their best choice and it appears they followed this.  Parties on the left tend to do best amongst younger voters than older voters and Singh is the type who can mobilize and inspire younger ones.  The only thing is he is fishing in much of the same pond as Trudeau so could be quite interesting.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At least one the Canadian branches of Shiromani Akali Dal was putting in the hours for Singh, which was a sure sign that this was over.

[Hatman 🍁]

At least one the Canadian branches of Shiromani Akali Dal was putting in the hours for Singh, which was a sure sign that this was over.

While there is no doubt that registering a lot of Sikhs to vote for him helped him win on the first ballot, there is no doubt in my mind he would've won anyways. Not only did he have the most support in caucus, he had the support of most of the party establishment (this was clear to me last Summer). And he was leading in those crappy Mainstreet polls which would not have included any of those new members.