NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Vega]

I think Mulcair should probably stay till a new leader is picked.

[Vega]

NDP sent out in an e-mail thanking Mulcair and saying that he'll stay on till a new leader is chosen in an election.

[Vega]

Ashton's not going to win, guys. Let's move on.

Cullen and Leslie have both said they're not running, but 2 years is a long time.

It's going to be held "within 24" months, from what I've been reading.

[Vega]

Yeah, I think the problem is that the equivalent of the Socialist Campaign Group for the NDP has no MPs, or really much of any following beyond washed up 70 year old socialists on Facebook.

Leftism in Canada is really stunted, surprisingly.

[Vega]

I really doubt Cullen will run because he knows he is far too like Mulcair for the state the party is in now.

[Vega]

I kind of wish Mulcair would run. We haven't had that kind of leadership convention in a long time and I think it would be entertaining.

Yeah, I think he should too. There is probably going to be someone who fills his role anyway, so why not have him anyway?

[Vega]

...and in the wake of the 2011 election the news papers were full of doom and gloom columns on the "death of Liberal Canada" etc...

I honestly don't think you can compare the two situations. The Liberals were a historically treasured party who, at that point, had recently been in office for over a decade.

[Vega]

I'm obviously not Canadian and very far from being an NDPer, but...wouldn't Nathan Cullen an extremely logical choice, if he runs? I've also heard next to no speculation about Topp, who came in a very strong second last time, though I suppose now isn't the time for the NDP to choose someone who isn't an MP, considering how few places there are where a by-election would be safe for them.

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

He is far too like Mulcair policy wise to win.

[Vega]

^
Is his seat really that close that it could be swung by that? He's won every election, even ones that weren't great for the NDP by 10 points since his first re-election.

Oh, and Cullen also wanted some sort of NDP-Liberal alliance in 2012. That would surely come back to haunt him.

[Vega]

Brosseau is considering.

YES!

[Vega]

I have to wonder that if the Official Languages Act had not been passed in the early 70s if so much emphasis would be placed on a leader's knowledge of French.

Was it like this prior to 1972?

[Vega]

No. Pearson, Diefenbaker, King were all unilingual, and the situation regarding bilingualism was completely different. Liberals had Quebec lieutenants (or as deputy PM in Lapointe's case) to run Quebec issues for them.

I suspect this has more to do with the Quiet Revolution.  I think it's perfectly understandable that 25% of the population of the country would find it unacceptable to have a Prime Minister who can't speak in their language.  Unless it's somebody like Jean Chretien who couldn't speak any language.

It is curious to think about that though. I do wonder if it not passing and there not being official bilingualism would have changed Canadian politics much.

[Vega]

Did the delegates pass the resolution to put having the Turks and Caicos join Canada as part of the NDP platform?

[Vega]

Ashton is good, I remember her being backed by the Socialist Caucus and is on the left wing but could win.

I thought it was odd though how she gave her Convention speech last time in Spanish and Greek, in addition to English and French. It just served to make it more jumbled than it needed to be.

[Vega]

Cullen has changed his mind, says he'll announce his decision this week but seems ready to jump in.

I don't believe there is any doubt that he won't win if he runs, which is a shame because it will be an open/shut vote.

[Vega]

If Gary Doer was younger, he'd be a good fit for right now.

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There will be an Ontarian provincial candidate... DiNovo.

I think she's part/closely linked of the NDP Socialist Caucus, but not their official candidate.

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I wonder how well Barry Manilow will do with the NDP Socialist Caucus.

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Apparently Jagmeet Singh made a rousing speech at the Alberta NDP convention (perhaps his Obama moment?), which is leading many to speculate he's running.

Wouldn't he be historically in-experienced?

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Seems like a lot of the post-Cullen momentum has shifted to Charlie Angus. I haven't heard a lot of mention about his lack of French speaking ability.

[Vega]

"Jesus announces run for NDP Leadership"

.... Does he speak French fluently? No? DISQUALIFIED.

Speaking some amount of French is important, that's clear, but to be completely disqualifying or qualifying candidates as Leader based on that sole attribute, even if it is important, is reckless.

[Vega]

I find it interesting that the NDP might be optimistic enough to think Canadians will elect a brown guy Prime Minister.

Are we not supposed to say that? I have no faith in our people whatsoever.

Canadians won't be electing any guy from the NDP Prime Minister, but do you really think there is that underbelly of racism in Canada? Seems like most are fine with the multiculturalism angle and are supportive of immigrants.

[Vega]

Niki Ashton is pregnant; due in November. She'll definitely be 'showing' come vote time. I've never heard of a candidate being pregnant in this kind of a high profile election. This will probably help her, right?

I imagine it might be seen as possibly distracting to her duties should she become leader, not spending time rebuilding the NDP. Nobody will say that openly though, I'm sure. She's not going to be in the top 2 anyway.

[Vega]

Niki Ashton is pregnant; due in November. She'll definitely be 'showing' come vote time. I've never heard of a candidate being pregnant in this kind of a high profile election. This will probably help her, right?

I imagine it might be seen as possibly distracting to her duties should she become leader, not spending time rebuilding the NDP. Nobody will say that openly though, I'm sure. She's not going to be in the top 2 anyway.

She will very likely be in the top 3; she is popular among younger supporters and as the only woman in the race, will get a bump from that as well (pun intended).

There is the possibility of underground gossip of course, because according to Wikipedia, she just got divorced a few months ago. I'm glad I haven't seen any yet; everyone is being quite respectful.

That is a rather odd situation, but I'm sure people will be respectful of it. Perhaps if she was in contention to win, more ugliness would come out, but still.

[Vega]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

Not sure how good of a sign it is that 22% of his own party seems to rule out voting for him at this point.