NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[mileslunn]

Can't find a non-paywalled link, but Mainstreet has Angus leading:
Angus 28%
Ashton 17%
Caron 11%
Singh 9%

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/08/09/angus-leading-in-leadership-polling-among-ndp-members/

Surprised Singh is so low but considering Mainstreet stated it was a certainty Bernier would be the next Conservative leader take their polls with a grain of salt.  I think Singh is the best choice as he could connect well with the young much like Trudeau does and pick up many millennial voters.  Yes some fear they may create the splits to allow the Tories to win, but as long as the Tories stay under 1/3 there is no risk of this, but if they climb above 35% it becomes a problem then which they haven't so far as they have a resilient strong base, but limited appeal beyond that at the moment.  Some worry being a Sikh he might lose Quebec, but asides from Caron, I think Quebec is likely lost anyway so it will be BC and Ontario where their focus should be.

As a side note what do you think the chances of Niki Ashton winning are as she seems like our Jeremy Corbyn, otherwise way out in left field.  And do you think like Corbyn her staunchly left wing ideas would gain much traction or are they a little too much for Canadians (we don't have the same polarization Britain does).

[mileslunn]

If elected, Singh wouldn't seek a seat till 2019.

Dumb, dumb idea.

[mileslunn]

TBF, Layton did the same thing.

He was chosen only a year before the election whereas Singh would be 2 years and Layton was frequently mocked for not running for a seat.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

What about Shane Simpson's seat next door as not sure how much longer he will stay on but good point.  As for safe seats I guess the concern is I don't generally look at just one election but look at the last decade as in the 2015 election you had lots of ridings that based on 2011 results appeared to be safe NDP or safe Conservative yet they ended up losing.  Heck even for the Conservatives outside some Calgary and rural Prairies their number of safe seats is much lower than some think.  In the Fraser Valley, BC Interior, and Rural Ontario, the Tories did win most of those but the margins weren't particularly strong and in fact a year ago when Trudeau was riding high in the polls they probably would have lost those.  Right now they probably would hold them as things have more or less returned back to where they were in 2015, but still might be a gamble, think John Tory running in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock and losing that which is normally a safe Tory seat.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

True the federal NDP does often suffer when the BC NDP is in power although I don't think they will tank quite as far and I say this as a BC Liberal supporter myself.  The millennials in BC are a lot more progressive than previous generations so that gives them a much stronger base to work from and also I think in BC there is still a fairly strong fatigue with the right as lets remember for the past 10 years at both levels of government we were dominated by parties on the right.  I am not suggesting the NDP won't lose seats in BC next federal election or the BC NDP won't get defeated, both are very possible but it's not a foregone conclusion even if historical precedent would say it is.

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

[mileslunn]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.

Why not as the Liberals and Tories did this so I think it would be a great idea to extend it to the NDP.  Also when the Canadian Alliance existed, the Liberals didn't run a candidate against either Stockwell Day or Stephen Harper despite the fact the Alliance didn't return the courtesy for the PCs against Joe Clark.  And if they did this it is not unreasonable to expect the NDP would reciprocate someday (not that Trudeau is likely going anywhere anytime soon, but I am talking about down the road).  It was the Mulroney PCs who started this tradition when they didn't run a candidate against Chretien in 1990.

[mileslunn]

I am not an NDP supporter and never would vote NDP, but I think Singh is the best choice.  NDP's best opportunity for gains is amongst millennials not older voters and I think Singh could appeal more to them.  Angus is more a non risk somewhat populist bland type and I think for parties on the right like the Conservatives that is what you want as the demographics who lean right tend to be risk averse and like bland types, but for progressive ones you want a type who can excite the younger voters.  Generally progressive voters do best when young voters show up in big numbers while do worse when they don't.

[mileslunn]

I don't think being older automatically makes one unattractive to millennials.  Sanders was 75 in 2016 and was very popular amongst millennials while in the UK Corbyn is 68 and also did quite well.  Its more if one has ideas that connect well with them.  I do though think Angus is too bland to really connect well with millennials, but unlike the others he is a fairly safe one and probably would stand a better chance than Singh at holding their Quebec support and also is unlikely to scare the NDP-Liberal swing voters as being too left wing the way Ashton might.

[mileslunn]

I do though think Angus is too bland to really connect well with millennials,

To repeat: Angus isn't "bland".  He may, as toaster says, represent "pre-millennialism"; but I can't picture anybody with his kind of punk/roots background being "bland"...

I agree age isn't the only thing, but how passionate is he when he speaks and can he rile up a crowd of younger people.  Corbyn and Sanders were even older, but they had great passion and could really rile up a crowd of millennials.  Also while income inequality is a major problem in all three countries, social mobility is quite high in Canada while low in both the US and UK thus why people might be more willing to consider radical options in those countries than in Canada.

[mileslunn]

Ashton seems very left wing, in many ways Canada's version of Jeremy Corbyn. Considering how well he did,do you think there is much of a market in Canada for her views of do you guys think she is too left wing to win. UK unlike Canada lacks a viable centrist option (Liberal Democrats are centrist but cannot win) so I am not sure it will work as well. Comparisons to Bernie Sanders are a bit silly as he is only consider radical due to how far to the right the median voter is in the US, in many European countries his policies would be fairly middle of the road while in Canada he would be like the NDP normally is, not a more left wing version.

[mileslunn]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She likes to compare herself to them but agree.  Sanders was only considered radical by American standards, but he would be fairly mainstream in most other industrialized countries.  Corbyn I meant in terms of ideology but unlike Ashton he does have more a populist appeal to the blue collar and those struggling whereas you are right Ashton is just more your typical keyboard SJW and agree beyond a certain hardcore base her appeal is limited.  I doubt she will win it, but if she does, the Liberals will be laughing all the way to the bank.  She will ensure the centre-left NDP-Liberal swing vote stays with the Liberals and with Scheer not likely to expand much beyond the CPC's base this will make winning 2019 quite easy provided they don't screw up.  That being said I think anyone defeating Trudeau, especially the NDP (the Tories have a somewhat better but still low chance) is unlikely.  Rather the bigger question is does Trudeau keep his majority or get reduced to a minority and if he gets reduced to a minority the NDP could then hold the balance of power.

[mileslunn]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She comes across to me as a right-winger's parody of what a left-wing activist would sound like.

Good point and while she is very left wing like Corbyn, Corbyn at least could appeal to the blue collar workers which I think she would have trouble doing.  Otherwise a sizeable portion of UKIP voters in 2015 swung over to Labour in 2017 whereas with Niki Ashton I doubt she could appeal to your Sanders-Trump style voters or UKIP-Labour style voters

How hilarious is it that on the very day I made that post Ashton apologizes for calling Quebec a  “diverse, multicultural society".

This is why Trump won, folks.

[mileslunn]

Léger has a poll on the federal political scene in Quebec and it contains questions on the NDP leadership race. (document in English)
http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Politics%20in%20Quebec_August%202017%20-%20EN-FED.pdf

25% are interested in the NDP leadership race. (46% of non francophones, 20% of francophones)

Considering the level of interest I don't know if other questions are meaningful.

Which candidate is preferes for next leader: Don't know 58%, None 22%
Caron 10%, Singh 4%, Angus 3%, Ashton 2%
(but Singh leads among non-franco with 8% before Caron and Ashton at 6%)

The impact of leader with turban: no effect 55%. discourage from voting 28%, encourage to vote for him 2%.

For voting intentions, Léger's question includes the name of the leader and the party.
The current situation using Mulcair's name for NDP leader is Lib 43%, NDP 19%, Bloc 19%, Conservative 15%.   
NDP gets 23% of the franco vote and 9% of the non franco and by region does best outside the Quebec City and Montreal metro areas with 22%.

Using the different candidates names as leader, The Liberals gain 4% with the two frontrunners and would be at 47% while NDP gets 13% with Angus and 11% with Singh. Caron performs better with 16% (and Lib at 46%). Ashton gets 11% (Lib 46%)

So the next leader will have to get known and develop a message to attract voters.

Interesting regional breakdowns.  No doubt good numbers for the Liberals although not quite as great at first blush since they are piling up the numbers in Montreal area and amongst non-Francos.  NDP and BQ are in fairly bad positions although to be fair the NDP is still polling above what they were at before the 2011 election, not that it means a lot.  Tory numbers pretty bad, but if you look at the regionals it seems they are getting slaughtered in the Montreal area still competitive in the Quebec City region, while well behind elsewhere in Quebec although not totally off the map.  I do though think at the moment (a lot can change between now and 2019, especially as Quebec is known to swing en masse on a moment's notice) that the Tories, NDP, and BQ would all lose seats and in the case of the NDP and BQ it would more be individual candidates as they don't really have any region of strength.  The Tories at least are somewhat more concentrated so would probably come in second, but in the single digits in seats.  Liberals despite being only 43% (note Pierre Trudeau usually got over 60% in Quebec) would probably dominate much the way Pierre Trudeau did due a divided opposition.

[mileslunn]

On the bigger note, should the NDP aim to win outright or should their goal just be to reduce the Liberals to a minority and then use their leverage to push them to adopt more progressive policies?  The former seems like a long shot although we live in unpredictable times whereas the latter seems far more realistic.

Also while unlikely, if in the event the Tories win the most seats but the Liberals + NDP got over 170 seats, do you think they should form a coalition or alliance like the NDP and Greens did in BC to keep out the Tories or would this just like 2008 create a strong backlash.

[mileslunn]

On the bigger note, should the NDP aim to win outright or should their goal just be to reduce the Liberals to a minority and then use their leverage to push them to adopt more progressive policies?  The former seems like a long shot although we live in unpredictable times whereas the latter seems far more realistic.

Also while unlikely, if in the event the Tories win the most seats but the Liberals + NDP got over 170 seats, do you think they should form a coalition or alliance like the NDP and Greens did in BC to keep out the Tories or would this just like 2008 create a strong backlash.

I think it's possible the NDP gives confidence to a minority Liberal government, depending on if the Liberals are just a few seats below the Conservatives or quite a few.

Agreed that closeness matters.  I also think if the Liberals win the popular vote but not seats there would be a good case for them to stay on, whereas if it is a repeat of 2008 (the odds of that happening are extremely slim as I believe there is an 80-90% chance the Liberals will win the most seats in 2019) then you could see a backlash due to the large gap.

[mileslunn]

Don't count on Mulcair resigning his seat in Outremont before the 2019 election. Apparently he has no job lined up yet and may prefer to be the elder statesman ex-leader for two more years and make a good salary

Also there is a good chance the Liberals would pick it up so not sure the NDP will like the looks of losing a seat to the Liberals.  To be fair I think the party is likely to lose seats in Quebec.  It is British Columbia and Ontario that matter and in those two provinces I think the party has potential to make gains although in the former a lot will depend on how popular or unpopular the BC NDP government is as that could help or hinder them there.

[mileslunn]

Bingo! The likes of Scheer and Trost are huge zealots, constantly throwing their religion in people faces demanding puritan christian policies, but don't wear anything overtly religious.

At worst, maybe, Scheer'd be a stalking horse for the Trost/Lemieux contingent.  But on the whole, through past speakerdom et al, I think he might know well enough to be (or at least appear) reasonably pragmatic as leader--or at least, closer in operation to Rona Ambrose than to Trost/Lemieux.  (But keep in mind that "closer to" can still mean "to the right of".)

I think a lot will too depend on the polls and how vulnerable the Liberals are.  If the Liberals are fairly popular in 2019 and look like they will win no matter what, he might take more of a right wing tack to motivate the base to show up, but if the Liberals appear vulnerable he will probably want to take a more centrist tack to try either reduce them to a minority or win outright.  I find parties when they no they are going to lose focus more on their base while if they think they can win or gain seats then go after the swing voters.  While some may point to Trudeau running to the left of the NDP last federal election his platform was centre-left not hard left and generally in line with what voters wanted.

As for Singh I think the whole religion thing is overblown.  In most of the regions of Quebec, the NDP is going to lose those seats no matter what.  What matters is can they gain seats in Ontario and BC and perhaps the Prairies (last election Brad Wall was wildly popular in Saskatchewan and you had an unpopular NDP government in Manitoba whereas by 2019 you won't have those two weighing it down there while in Alberta either the provincial NDP is already gone so no impact or if they do manage to pull off a win that means their support rebounded strongly thus helping their federal counterparts).  Singh's religion and turban are not likely to have any negative impact in BC and Ontario.  More importantly even in Quebec I think people are overplaying its impact.  Many said Obama was unelectable as a Black person couldn't win in middle America yet he won much of the Midwest (areas where Clinton lost) and even many rural white counties thus debunking this idea.

[mileslunn]

Bingo! The likes of Scheer and Trost are huge zealots, constantly throwing their religion in people faces demanding puritan christian policies, but don't wear anything overtly religious.

At worst, maybe, Scheer'd be a stalking horse for the Trost/Lemieux contingent.  But on the whole, through past speakerdom et al, I think he might know well enough to be (or at least appear) reasonably pragmatic as leader--or at least, closer in operation to Rona Ambrose than to Trost/Lemieux.  (But keep in mind that "closer to" can still mean "to the right of".)

I think a lot will too depend on the polls and how vulnerable the Liberals are.  If the Liberals are fairly popular in 2019 and look like they will win no matter what, he might take more of a right wing tack to motivate the base to show up, but if the Liberals appear vulnerable he will probably want to take a more centrist tack to try either reduce them to a minority or win outright.  I find parties when they no they are going to lose focus more on their base while if they think they can win or gain seats then go after the swing voters.  While some may point to Trudeau running to the left of the NDP last federal election his platform was centre-left not hard left and generally in line with what voters wanted.

I'd be surprised if this was the case because it seems to me that the Conservatives have put themselves so much in a bubble that they genuinely believe that the issues that they demagogue that have appeal to their 30-33% base of Canadians are issues that all Canadians are concerned about.

True a lot are in that category although all parties do run focus groups and internal polls and tend to go based on those.  If you look since the house returned, the focus from the Tories is on tax changes not Omar Khadr settlement or border jumpers and I suspect their internal numbers showed those were vote losing.  Now yes internal numbers can be deceptive, I believe part of the reason many in the Harper government thought they would win again is they not only underestimated Justin Trudeau, they assumed voter turnout would be the same or lower as if voter turnout was only 61% like 2011 vs. 69% like in 2015 the election would have been a lot closer, otherwise the new voters who showed up overwhelmingly went Liberal and I think much like the polls underestimated Labour in Britain they underestimated the surge in turnout amongst younger voters.

That is not to say I actually think the Tories are likely to win in 2019, I don't think they are.  Just that all parties want to win so they usually tend to only push as far as they think they can.

 As for the NDP leadership race I also doubt whomever is chosen will become next PM, but could certainly reduce the Liberals to a minority and thus pull them leftward like was the case under Pearson and Trudeau 1972-1974.  Always a possibility of a surprise like we saw in Alberta but with Trudeau being a progressive leaning liberal seems unlikely.  There actually is a lot more room on the right to pick up votes, but the Tories seem to have a tendency to ignore this group or when they do reach out like Patrick Brown in Ontario has, the more ideological elements threaten to leave the party.

[mileslunn]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

True enough although I think in BC the real wildcard is how popular will the provincial NDP be then.  The federal NDP has tended to do better when their provincial cousins are in opposition than government.  1974, 1993, 1997, and 2000 were all disasters for the NDP in BC.  Now off course past BC NDP governments also had low approval ratings so if Horgan does a good job that might help them, but just saying I think how well the provincial NDP performs could have an impact.  On the other hand I think the NDP has potential in both Saskatchewan and Manitoba.  There was an unpopular NDP government in Manitoba in October 2015 which has now been turfed from office so wouldn't be surprised if they recover a bit much like they did in BC in 2004 when the BC NDP was gone while in Saskatchewan, that was when Brad Wall had a 2/3 approval rating so probably helped the Conservatives whereas now the Saskatchewan Party's approval rating is down in the 40s so less of an asset for the Conservatives than it was in 2015.

[mileslunn]

So do you think it will be Singh on the first ballot?  I think he will win, although Angus should do reasonably well.  Singh has the potential to appeal to younger urban type millennials who went largely Liberal last time around as well as could make inroads in the ethnic communities.  Angus is more a left leaning populist so can appeal to your traditional blue collar workers.  Not sure how many of these type voters exist today, but I think Singh is much better to pick up Lib-NDP switchers whereas I think Angus is better to pick up Tory-NDP switchers but while there used to be a lot of those, not sure how many exists nowadays.  Caron would be best for the party in Quebec, but cannot see him getting much traction elsewhere.  Ashton would be a disaster, but she might do well amongst the left flank who wrongly assume Corbyn and Sanders' success is proof going further left forgetting both are very different than her and also different circumstances too.

[mileslunn]

No NDP supporter myself but I said all along Jagmeet Singh was their best choice and it appears they followed this.  Parties on the left tend to do best amongst younger voters than older voters and Singh is the type who can mobilize and inspire younger ones.  The only thing is he is fishing in much of the same pond as Trudeau so could be quite interesting.

[mileslunn]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Wouldn't that benefit the Conservatives as I doubt many Conservatives will go over to the NDP, it will probably be mostly Liberals, although perhaps Conservatives will fall due to NDP picking up some undecided voters.  Should be interesting to see what happens.  That being said it is tough for opposition leaders to get much attention so I think the next election is when people will really get to know Singh.

[mileslunn]

I think the NDP was going to be in a tough bind to hold the 16 seats they won in Quebec no matter what.  It is more can they make gains in BC and Ontario and perhaps pick up a few in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (note at the last federal election, provincial NDP was doing really badly in both provinces but has somewhat rebounded since).  Also any seats they do win in Quebec will probably in Montreal rather than the regions of Quebec and in Montreal people are a lot more open to diverse candidates than in the regions of Quebec.  Also much like Quebec Solidaire, their support in Quebec will likely be strongest amongst millennials who are far more open and tolerant as opposed to the older pure laine who after Jack Layton died probably weren't going to go NDP again anyways.