NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Lotuslander]

Yes, obviously Cullen is the frontrunner at this point.

I would agree with that sentiment. But caveat emptor. During the last 2012 NDP leadership race Cullen's website had "Green Party" colours - not NDP colours.

And with the NDP membership discussing the Leap Manifesto over the next few years - climate change is obviously a forefront issue within NDP ranks these days.

Yet here's the situation in Cullen's riding of Skeena- Bulkley Valley:

1. Cullen's riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley is the terminus for major LNG proposals (Petronas, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, CNOOC et al) in the port cities of Kitimat and Prince Rupert.

2. Aside from some fringe elements within the local FN communities, the Haisla FN, 5 Tsimshian FNs, and even now the Lax kw'alaams FN is also on-board. In addition to that all of the communities... Kitimat, Prince Rupert, Terrace, etc. also support LNG. One can basically now say that LNG has obtained "social license" in these areas.

3. Problem is that just one of these LNG proposals will see a major spike in GHG emissions - from natural gas electrical generation at port to a major GHG increase in natural gas fracking in NE BC.

And therein lies the crux of his problem... Cullen can't oppose future LNG development in his riding or he may well lose his seat in 2019. OTOH, Cullen needs to oppose these same LNG developments (with major GHG emissions and climate change) in order to be competitive in the NDP leadership race.

A classic "Catch-22".

[Lotuslander]

Frankly, I can't see the difference between the candidates - they could all be considered to be 2nd Tier type candidates appealing to different NDP internal constituencies. Different from appealing to the electorate during a general whereby nothing here stands out IMHO.

Fed NDP has one individual, though, that I believe could/would have stood out to the electorate at large during a general - none other than fed NDP president Marit Stiles - attractive, good communication skills, likable, moderate, non-threatening, intelligent, charismatic, down-to-earth, connects with folk, fluent in French, etc. Unfortunate that she did not take the leap:

[Lotuslander]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

Nada. If ya know your BC political history, BC NDP public support always collapses after ~2 years into the term and negatively impacts the fed NDP brand in BC. To wit, when the BC NDP was elected in 1972, fed NDP support collapsed in BC during the fed 1974 election.

When the BC NDP was elected in 1991, fed NDP support also collapsed during the 1993 fed election. In both cases, the fed NDP collapsed in BC to just 2 fed seats. And in both instances, the fed NDP lost the riding of Vancouver East.

BTW, based upon polling data (Mainstreet/Ipsos) and subsequent events (Petronas LNG/Site C/KM, UNDRIP, etc.) appears evident that BC NDP already on downward spiral here in BC.

[Lotuslander]

Might as well throw this recent Vancouver Sun article into the mix:

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http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-sikhs-air-mixed-views-on-ndps-jagmeet-singh