NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[lilTommy]

The ONDPs loss for sure if he were to run. He also represents a suburban riding in the 905 which is strategic if the NDP wants to win more then just urban core ridings in ON... He also can rival Trudeau on the "youth, looks and Charisma" side of things which the media eats up

[lilTommy]

When you are an opposition politician and the government of the day brings in a policy that is wildly unpopular in the riding you represent - but where you and your party are actually supportive of the substance of that policy - then the logical thing to do it is to attack the government for incompetently managing the issue and failing to bring stakeholders onside etc...

Jagmeet was in a "no real win" situation and I think he handled it well; he did not come out against something he/the party supports and was able to push the concerns of his constituents. He did get some push back from some members of the party I saw but nothing that would harm him to any extent.

... for some reason I just saw Darrell Dexter's name floated/mentioned as possibility? hmmm not sure on that one but he does have government experience...

BTW here is how the government consulted on the changes at the time:

"One parent in each publicly funded school in the province, usually a parent council chair, was provided a survey late last year. While the survey asked questions about educational priorities and what sources of information are trusted in forming curriculum, it did not ask parents specifically what they feel should be included in the sexual education curriculum or use many of the specific terms and concepts that have upset some parents.
The government says the survey was distributed to some 4,000 individual parents and that the Ministry of Education also consulted widely with various parent groups. The government also says the new curriculum has been designed by experts in order to equip students for the realities of modern society" http://www.cp24.com/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-ontario-s-new-sexual-education-curriculum-1.2369847

[lilTommy]

When you are an opposition politician and the government of the day brings in a policy that is wildly unpopular in the riding you represent - but where you and your party are actually supportive of the substance of that policy - then the logical thing to do it is to attack the government for incompetently managing the issue and failing to bring stakeholders onside etc...

Jagmeet was in a "no real win" situation and I think he handled it well; he did not come out against something he/the party supports and was able to push the concerns of his constituents. He did get some push back from some members of the party I saw but nothing that would harm him to any extent.

... for some reason I just saw Darrell Dexter's name floated/mentioned as possibility? hmmm not sure on that one but he does have government experience...

BTW here is how the government consulted on the changes at the time:

"One parent in each publicly funded school in the province, usually a parent council chair, was provided a survey late last year. While the survey asked questions about educational priorities and what sources of information are trusted in forming curriculum, it did not ask parents specifically what they feel should be included in the sexual education curriculum or use many of the specific terms and concepts that have upset some parents.
The government says the survey was distributed to some 4,000 individual parents and that the Ministry of Education also consulted widely with various parent groups. The government also says the new curriculum has been designed by experts in order to equip students for the realities of modern society" http://www.cp24.com/news/what-you-need-to-know-about-ontario-s-new-sexual-education-curriculum-1.2369847

I think that is pretty broad consultations.  Again, the only people who complained their wasn't enough consultations were the ones who were really saying 'they didn't do what we wanted.'

I think the NDP will want a candidate from the Atlantic region, but not Dexter.   If Maureen MacDonald gets back to being fully healthy, she could be a strong candidate.  Certainly no worse than any other provincial politician, like Jagmeet Singh.

If an Atlantic candidate steps forward, I think Megan Leslie would have the most appeal/best shot to members.

[lilTommy]

If Megan Leslie is out, than perhaps Yvon Godin as an Atlantic candidate?

Dexter would be a disaster. He is the Bob Rae of Nova Scotia.

Maybe, but he retired last year so I doubt he'd come back. Stoffer has already said no, Harris or Chisholm?, maybe. I think the problem with Harris and Chisholm is their lack of French, Chisholm admitted it last time and bowed out.

[lilTommy]

There is actually a theory that the Ontario purposely "mishandled" the sex education file because they wanted it to be as controversial as possible. They wanted it to become a wedge issue that they could use against the PCs so they did minimal consultations and went out of their way to provoke a reaction. I don't usually go for these crazy conspiracy theories but the Ontario liberals sre such a cynical and corrupt party that i wouldnt put it past them.

Anyways, its all water under the bridge, the curriculum is in place, the protests have petered out and even Patrick Brown of the PCs is now avoiding the issue. Its over.

Now after that huge segue let's get back to the federal NDP leadership contest

and with all that, Yes Jagmeet Singh could be a potential leadership candidate.
That leads us to deep dive into Provincial parties... whom from any provincial NDP could/might jump to federal politics?

[lilTommy]

The NDP will be fine guys. All it will take is for the Liberals to  up again, and those promiscuous progressives will be back. Alternatively, a Sandersesque/Obamaesque leader could galvanize progressives as well. There'll always be an attraction for a social democratic party. Just because the NDP is polling at 10% doesn't mean it's going to be forever like that. Trudeau is very popular right now; we have to be patient.

Just to add more to what Hatman said, there an actually decent article in Macleans http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/why-the-ndps-past-is-never-dead/
the NDP has always had these internals, since the party was formed almost. They mention 1972 and 1989 were the last big ones (2003 with Jack Layton was more personality but i'd say still power (old guard with Blaikie) vs principles (new school) with Layton) where these "principals vs power" battles come up.

[lilTommy]

Brosseau is considering.

It would be nice if the article actually contained a quote or something. Instead it just says that she, along with almost every other MP asked has not "ruled it out". I don't blame her. It's good for her image to be the subject of idle speculation...if someone asked me if I would run for the NDP leadership I would also not rule it out and would bask in all the imagined scenarios about speculation about secret exploratory committees. Why not be coy.

All that being said, being leader of a party is not the same thing as being star of a reality TV show. You have to show evidence that you can be CEO of a party with millions of dollars of assets and liabilities and that you have mastery of complex policy files and that you are a shred tactician etc....with all due respect to Brosseau she has exceeded expectations as a local MP but I think people,are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves in thinking she is leadership material right now. She's still only 28 years old for god sake

Much of that was said of Trudeau... Ruth is 31, not 28.
That's kind of an ageist comment no? experience is not to be equated with age. Niki Ashton is only 33, and was in her lat 20's at the time of the NDP leadership race that she contested. She did not win or place among top contenders, but it cannot be said that she lacks leadership or experience or ability to grasp policy.
If she runs and IF she were to win she would be 35ish by the 2019 election, young but have 8 years, 2 terms as an MP and 3-4 as leader... Trudeau was in his second term as well before being elected leader in 2013, and had less experience as leader, only about 2 years, then Brosseau would have.

[lilTommy]

No surprise here, Niki Ashton is also mulling another run
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/mp-ashton-mulls-another-bid-for-federal-ndp-leadership-377177011.html

Might be more successful then the last time? although i'm not sure she is has prominent outside the party as she is in. She has been getting good media coverage as of late though, and is a young, articulate, fluent in 4 languages female leader who's got tons of experience already. She was pretty high on my list last time, 3rd for me.

[lilTommy]

Ashton is good, I remember her being backed by the Socialist Caucus and is on the left wing but could win.

I thought it was odd though how she gave her Convention speech last time in Spanish and Greek, in addition to English and French. It just served to make it more jumbled than it needed to be.

She certainly did not solicit the support of those Socialist Caucus lunatics...and was probably embarrassed to get their endorsement. I wonder what she would have to say about the "Leap Manifesto" given that she represents a totally primary resource extraction based riding in northern Manitoba

Actually Churchill—Keewatinook Aski is pretty diverse economically when you look at the different communities, Mining and Tourism tend to be the most dominant though:

Churchill - Tourism/Eco-tourism, Transportation hub, Healthcare and Research
Flin Flon - Mining (major employment), Services (public and retail/commercial), oddly enough marijuana production
The Pas -  agriculture, forestry, commercial fishing, tourism, transportation, and services
Thompson - Minning, Energy, Services, Government (health, education) transportation

 

[lilTommy]

There is a new "Recruit..." for NDP leadership facebook group I saw. Syd Ryan. Definitely a Labour candidate and definitely a Left candidate if he decides to run. He's been very critical of how cozy some of the current CLC leadership has been with the Liberals, I hope he does run just to bring in more diversity to the race and to pull Union membership attention back to the NDP... and I hopefully more media attention.

[lilTommy]

two new "Draft... for Leader" pages are out there for the NDP:
- Former Party President Rebecca Blaikie and;
- MP Guy Caron

Blaikie would be interesting if she were to run; for a Party President she was relatively high profile, especially after the 2015 defeat. She has very strong western (obvious, her father and brother and she ran there in 2011) roots, but also has a strong connection in Quebec (candidate in 2004 against the then PM, was the executive director of the Quebec wing before there really was one, seen as a key architect of the NPDQ).

Caron is not as well known, not as much of a high profile MP but has been very active by being the face of the party in the Atlantic region and on the Tax, Finance file and has solid economics and union cred. With Boulerice out, Caron could step up as the or one of the Quebec MPs to run for the leadership. 

[lilTommy]

Do you know about the Draft Jagmeet Singh page? It already has 1,555 likes.

Meanwhile...

Draft Sid Ryan has 201 likes
Rebecca Blaikie has 2 likes (must have just started)
Niki Ashton has 297 likes
Megan Leslie has 94 likes (but she's not running)
Dana Larsen has 36 likes
Charlie Angus has 99 likes


I think it's obvious who the front runner is

HA Yup, so far... and surprisingly Syd is second? see, controversial breads attention (for better or worse)
I think we mentioned the Singh one so I;ve never brought it up. I have not yet joined any of them... but its nice to see them out there. Most seem relatively "new" things just seem to be starting to gear up.

[lilTommy]

A Singh "fluff piece" from the Star:
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/08/leaderless-ndp-looks-to-rising-star-jagmeet-singh-cohn.html

My feeling is he's somewhere in the Social Democrat range; Not as centrist as Mulcair, but not as left as Ashton.
His Provincial claims to fame have been his push on affordable Auto-Insurance (pretty populist) and being the most vocal against carding (Social Justice progressive Law&Order stance). In short... I don't think we really know yet especially when it comes to Federal matters

[lilTommy]

Great article on why Jagmeet should run / be leader: https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/08/leaderless-ndp-looks-to-rising-star-jagmeet-singh-cohn.html

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he will be the next NDP leader.

Toronto based journalist supports Toronto based politician for leader of a national party.  Film at 11.

Of course, when I first read a post about how some Illinois State Senator named Barack Obama would win the Democratic primary for U.S Senate,  I replied "You're delusional, Dan Hynes will win that nomination handily."  So, what do I know?

FWIW, I'm from Ottawa, and I think he's going to win.

And let's just say, I correctly predicted Trudeau in 2007: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=66990.0

(and they [specifically our dear moderator] called me crazy)

What makes you say that? curious is all, given no one is really in the field so were really just talking about the "potentials". Given you got the LPC leadership right wondering what magic you have?

[lilTommy]

First mainstream media article on Syd Ryan, he's thinking about...

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-union-leader-sid-ryan-considering-ndp-leadership-bid/article33712398/?ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe&service=mobile

Mentions Ashton, Singh, Juslian, Angus and Caron.

Ryan's entrance would be jolt into the leadership race mainly because he's outside the caucus, he's known as a fire-brand (aka controversial, God would he be the NDPs O'Leary? lol) and I think the ideas he would bring such as Free Post-Secondary, Social Investment bank... the usual left ideas. Doesn't speak french but indicates he would have a co-leader from Quebec (Quebec Solidaire style, which would be interesting comcept)

Article on Guy Caron:

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/01/22/story-strategy-and-political-vision-could-make-guy-caron-next-ndp-leader#.WIVE1M-844g.facebook

Looks to be positioning himself as Layton's legacy from a middle/working class, economics bread-and-butter issues. Worked for Layton's leadership team would be the "It's the economy stupid" candidate, i'm getting that feel.

[lilTommy]

Dusseault, Aubin, Sancousy, Choquette endorse Julian. They know he's their best hope here. Julian will also campaign against Energy East.

Pressure is on others to step it up, and soon. Good endorsements for Julian, Dusseault and Aubin endorsed Mulcair and Choquette had endorsed Ashton back in 2012 (Sancousy was elected in 2015 so wasn't listed as an MP endorser)
If Ashton enters (I hope she does) that's a blow to her verses 2012; but i'd say her profile and stature among MPs is higher now then 2012.

[lilTommy]

Caron would also be solid here but IDK how he'd play in English Canada.

I am a huge fan of the work Caron is doing, Definitely hope he runs. As long as his English is good (and unfortunately some English Canadians won't accept a francophone who has too heavy an accent) But I've heard him speak, sounds like he's relatively at ease in english. I don't see why he wouldn't be able to build himself outside Quebec.

[lilTommy]

Early, and hearing that both the Ashton and Singh people are gearing up, and the Syd Ryan FB group is still pretty active but I just don't know how if that's happening:

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/02/28/NDP-Leadership-Contest/

"the candidates bring different strengths to the race — Caron for his economist’s perspective, Angus for his working-class “punk rocker” background and Julian for his ability to organize."

[lilTommy]

From Ontario, Looks like Angus picks up two MPPs endorsements and Ashton one (I think, it's a paywall on iPolitics, so I had to go by twitter)

Angus wins Gilles Bisson (Timmins-James Bay) (big surprise there! lol) and John Vanthof (Timiskaming-Cochrane) support, both Northern ON MPPs

Ashton wins Cheri DiNovo's (Parkdale-High Park) support... I think, maybe someone who pays for iPolitics can confirm?

[lilTommy]

Ashton wins Cheri DiNovo's (Parkdale-High Park) support... I think, maybe someone who pays for iPolitics can confirm?

That seems like strange timing. Ashton is not even formally running yet and has made no announcement...usually the endorsements happen at the earliest when a candidate announces...or later...not before!! But there have been rumours for some time about DiNovo's mental health

Remember this is DiNovo, who announced a run at the leadership by not paying the fees, then dropped out due to health... I love the lady, but she is sporadic, or eclectic.   IF this is true... But Ashton is expected to jump next week.

[lilTommy]

Niki Ashton is now in
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ashton-ndp-leadership-race-1.4013070

[lilTommy]

I wish Peggy Nash or Megan Leslie would enter.  Leslie would be my top choice.  Nash was a former labour organizer, so she would be good at bringing the urban Toronto latte sippers together with the Hamilton blue collar pro-union workers.

I'm not a big fan of Niki Ashton's style.  She's very much, in my view, too hard-line partisan.  The vocabulary she used with the "elbow-gate" was a turn off to most Canadians.  I don't think this hyper-sensationalism/hyper-reactions look good, and that is what I get from her.  I want someone who is willing to work with others, and take a stand based on issues not on politics.

Nash is working with the ONDP as a Senior policy adviser right now, and Leaslie is working with WWF Canada. I'd really would have liked to see Megan run; she has a much more warm, less aggressive approach then Ashton plus it would be an East Coast candidate. It's a shame neither of them are looking to run (nor do I see Leslie running next federal, Nash maybe, but with the ONDP role, she might be looking to replace DiNovo is/when she stands down).
I never found Nash to be a strong speaker though, I think that held her back from really being widely supported. I do think Ashton can equally relate to the urban progressives, she is very social media savy and that how your going to engage urban, young members/voters. But we will see if her tone, approach changes... I just think she's pushing for the Canada's Bernie (who is equally very partisan)

Here's a good read in regards to NDP leaders:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/03/05/no-job-in-canada-like-leading-the-ndp-sears.html

[lilTommy]

Its Official... Pat Stogran, Veteran's Ombudsman (2007-2010) and retired Colonel of the Canadian Forces Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry is in the NDP leadership race.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/video?clipId=1082401

Very interesting; a non-MP, Non-Leap supporter, Pragmatic "don't-call-me-socialist-social democrat-like" already said the previous platform was too expensive and un-realistic... so ok, very pro-PR. Good addition though to the field. Really hope Jagmeet enters soon...

[lilTommy]

Review of the Second Debate:

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/second-ndp-leadership-debate-with-youth-issues-as-backdrop-differences-star

Criticism and accolades for each candidate, and a note on a push for others (ehemm Jagmeet) to hurry up and enter the race.

[lilTommy]

Canadians have a slight smug sense of superiority about racism, there is always the "well its not the US" and that's true. But frankly racism is everywhere. CDN large cities are like American or any in the world at being more accepting and open, while communities that are dominated by one race, or are small and rural tend to have this fear of the un-known. In general Canadian are more progressive socially though compared to Americans or even British. 
In rural Canada it tends to be weighted more heavily towards Aboriginals, as mentioned, particularly in the west or communities in the east near Reserves. I grew up in a border town with a Reserve and First Nations are still vilified as just smugglers and bums, unjustly so, but these are perceptions and old hate. The difference in Canada is that it is political death to be overtly anti-immigration, anti-multicultural. Canada's ethnic communities are huge voting blocks and can deliver governments (Chretien-Martin, Harper and now Trudeau) In particular Suburban Toronto and Vancouver. Even Conservatives won't oppose immigration but will call for more regulation on who gets in.