Who will win Westchester County, NY (R)?

[RR1997]

Trump is ahead by a lot in NY as a whole, but who do you think will win Westchester County?

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

[Erc]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

Agreed.  There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.

This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...

Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.

[The Free North]

Trump, Kasich will do alright.

Part of the county is really just an extension of the Bronx demographically (New Rochelle, Mt Vernon) and by the time you get to places with Republican voters you're decently far enough upstate that Trump will do well.

Kasich should have a decent showing, but overall it will likely go to Trump

[The Free North]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

Agreed.  There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.

This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...

Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.

Its not a matter of Catholic v Protestant. I think its more 'wealthy suburban' (who, interestingly are heavily Jewish in Westchester) vs more exburban voters and Republicans in heavily democratic areas to the south of the county.

[Pyro]

My hometown!

Most likely Trump. No one I know, aside from direct family, knows who Kasich is.

[dspNY]

I live here, Trump will easily surpass 50% in the primary next week here. In fact the suburbs will most likely be some of his strongest counties statewide

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

Agreed.  There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.

This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...

Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.

Its not a matter of Catholic v Protestant. I think its more 'wealthy suburban' (who, interestingly are heavily Jewish in Westchester) vs more exburban voters and Republicans in heavily democratic areas to the south of the county.

A little bit, but Trump does well with the highly educated/higher income suburbanites, particularly when they are Catholic, so I think that trend will show up a great deal more. (Are the suburban Jews really Republicans anyway? I know the Brooklyn ones are, but in NJ, they seem pretty D)

[The Free North]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

Agreed.  There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.

This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...

Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.

Its not a matter of Catholic v Protestant. I think its more 'wealthy suburban' (who, interestingly are heavily Jewish in Westchester) vs more exburban voters and Republicans in heavily democratic areas to the south of the county.

A little bit, but Trump does well with the highly educated/higher income suburbanites, particularly when they are Catholic, so I think that trend will show up a great deal more. (Are the suburban Jews really Republicans anyway? I know the Brooklyn ones are, but in NJ, they seem pretty D)

Armonk/Scarsdale/Pelham are Jewish, some I would assume are republicans, but it's besides the point. I don't think there are enough 'typical' Kasich voters to make it close: Trump should win running away.

[Smash255]

Trump will win fairly easily, Kasich will be 2nd, Cruz is a terrible fit for Westchester and the NYC suburbs as a whole will be a distant 3rd.

[Erc]

Trump with a strong Kasich showing.

Agreed.  There's definitely a solid contingent of well-educated, mainline Protestant Republicans who will vote Kasich, but there's definitely more than enough Catholics (especially Italians) to overwhelm them.

This whole New York primary seems like something out of a different era...

Would definitely be interested in seeing what towns in Westchester Trump loses, though.

Its not a matter of Catholic v Protestant. I think its more 'wealthy suburban' (who, interestingly are heavily Jewish in Westchester) vs more exburban voters and Republicans in heavily democratic areas to the south of the county.

A little bit, but Trump does well with the highly educated/higher income suburbanites, particularly when they are Catholic, so I think that trend will show up a great deal more. (Are the suburban Jews really Republicans anyway? I know the Brooklyn ones are, but in NJ, they seem pretty D)

Armonk/Scarsdale/Pelham are Jewish, some I would assume are republicans, but it's besides the point. I don't think there are enough 'typical' Kasich voters to make it close: Trump should win running away.

Pelham (my hometown) I wouldn't say has a notably large Jewish population for the area.  Presumably most of them are Democrats, anyway.

Pelham Manor (WASPy enough and one-party Republican rule until the Bush administration) seems like plausible Kasich territory, though Pelham (village) will probably go Trump with the rest of the county.

[Vosem]

Obviously _trump, but I'm not sure the "people don't know who Kasich is" argument holds water; people who will be voting will all be registered Republicans, which implies a certain level of awareness as to what is going on, and I think there's going to be a fairly large contingent, who will mentally cross off _trump and Cruz (especially in this state) and then see just one name left.

[jaichind]

Where I live (Scarsdale/Edgemont) most people who might vote in the GOP primary will go with Kasich.  But if you go out a bit in places like Hartsdale, Eastchester, and for sure Yonkers where the GOP base are made up for people of Italian background then they will mostly go Trump and some even Cruz.  Westchester as a whole especially if one takes into account of population centers like White Plains where I think Kasich will have the advantage should be close but most likely lean Trump.  I would say that Cruz should win around 10%-15% vote here.  Key is if the Cruz voters will vote tactically for Kasich then Kasich could come out ahead here.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Trump. If he is getting 50% of the vote in NY and is 25-30% clear of the 2nd place candidate, he'll likely win every county.

[Torie]

Trump. If he is getting 50% of the vote in NY and is 25-30% clear of the 2nd place candidate, he'll likely win every county.

Correct. The game is to keep Trump below 50% in a majority of the CD's, so Kasich or Cruz collectively siphon off say 20 delegates - one for each of the CD's where they keep Trump below 50%. Trump probably has quite a chunk of wasted votes in Western NY, and on Long Island, and about 15 of the CD's have almost no registered Pubs, so it's hard to predict what will happen there. I don't see Trump doing very well in Manhattan, or the more prosperous parts of Brooklyn, which is getting quite high income these days. Trump probably will get over 50% in my CD alas, but it might be close.

[Eraserhead]

Trump with Kasich in a solid second place. Cruz will completely bomb there.