English local elections, 5 May 2016

[YL]

I don't think we have a thread for these yet.  (There's one for London here.)

What's up:
- All Metropolitan Boroughs except Doncaster have elections.  In most of these a third of the seats are up (one in each ward).  In Knowsley and Sheffield, all seats are up due to ward boundary changes; in Rotherham all seats are up due to a government decree moving the council to all up elections.
- Several unitary authorities.  Again, in most of these, a third of the seats are up, but in Bristol, Peterborough and Warrington all seats are up.
- Some second tier districts.  Again, most of these have a third of the seats up, but some have all-up elections and a couple have half of the seats up.
- Bristol, Liverpool and Salford have mayoral elections.
- All Police and Crime Commissioner posts are up, except Greater Manchester where the post is being merged into the new mayoralty.  (Which means everywhere in the UK has some sort of election, though how important the election is varies quite a lot from place to place.)

(Full list of the councils with elections at http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2016.htm )

[YL]

Anyway, we start with a hilarious story from Wolverhampton.  The Conservative incumbent councillor for Tettenhall Regis was retiring, and according to the party they'd selected a replacement candidate.  Somehow, nomination forms were prepared for both the retiring incumbent and his intended replacement, both got the 10 signatures needed, both of them signed the forms to consent to their nomination, and both were signed off as official Conservative candidates by the responsible party official.  So, for a single vacancy, there are two candidates on the ballot from the same party.

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-news/2016/04/11/two-tories-standing-for-same-wolverhampton-ward-in-may-council-election/

(Sadly, it's a sufficiently safe ward that they'll probably get away with this.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Such a shame this couldn't have happened in a marginal ward, but if Tettenhall does turn red (spoiler alert: it won't) this will be why

[joevsimp]

Anyway, we start with a hilarious story from Wolverhampton.  The Conservative incumbent councillor for Tettenhall Regis was retiring, and according to the party they'd selected a replacement candidate.  Somehow, nomination forms were prepared for both the retiring incumbent and his intended replacement, both got the 10 signatures needed, both of them signed the forms to consent to their nomination, and both were signed off as official Conservative candidates by the responsible party official.  So, for a single vacancy, there are two candidates on the ballot from the same party.

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-news/2016/04/11/two-tories-standing-for-same-wolverhampton-ward-in-may-council-election/

(Sadly, it's a sufficiently safe ward that they'll probably get away with this.)

Oh will that's not as bad as what my beloved party comrades have managed in Kingston upon Hull, namely turning up late to the town hall to submit candidates and missing the deadline

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Right, but that happens all the time. But two candidates for one seat is... how? I mean the incumbent who was supposedly retiring a) collected the signatures and b) signed the papers...

[Hifly]

And the Party's official Nominating Officer or designated regional office staff would have signed both the party emblem and description authorisation forms for both candidates to stand as "Conservative Party" candidates... One would expect something would have been flagged up at that stage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh lawd

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Oh lawd

Something similar happened in Rutland in a 2013 council by-election, although (a) that was a bail condition as the candidate involved was awaiting trial on charges of harassment, and (b) the trial resulted in an acquittal.  That didn't stop the candidate involved sinking without trace in the election, however.

[YL]

Here's a preview of the Yorkshire Met boroughs.  Except in Sheffield and Rotherham, each ward has three councillors only one of whom (elected in 2012) is up this year.  Sheffield and Rotherham have all up elections for different reasons.  Doncaster is now on a different cycle and has no elections this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 54, Barnsley Independent Group (BIG) 4, Con 4, with one seat vacant (formerly Labour).  All seats being defended are held by Labour except for Penistone East (Con) and Worsbrough and Dodworth (both BIG).  The Tories will no doubt be targeting Penistone West, and perhaps UKIP will try to win somewhere, though this is the only South Yorkshire Met where they've never won a seat.

Bradford

Currently Lab 46, Con 23, Lib Dem 9, Green 3, UKIP 1, Independent 8 (in different groups according to whether they're ex-Respect, ex-Con, ex-Lab or ex-BNP).  As ever, things are not entirely simple.  The Bradford Independent Group (ex-Respect) seats are all up this year, and none of the incumbents are defending their seats; OTOH the ex-Con Independent seats in Craven and Ilkley wards are also up and both incumbents are defending their seats.  The Greens have a stronghold in Shipley, the Lib Dems have one in the north-east of the city proper, and the Tories do well outside Bradford proper and Keighley, though there are sometimes odd results for biraderi related reasons (e.g. the Tories won Keighley Central last year, and have had councillors in most of the inner city wards in the not too distant past).  The fifth Respect councillor elected in 2012, in Heaton, joined Labour and is on the ballot for them defending his seat, but has just been suspended from the party over apparently anti-Semitic comments on social media.  Meanwhile in Queensbury, ex-BNP independent Lynda Cromie is trying to get her seat back.

Calderdale

Currently Lab 24, Con 21, Lib Dem 5, Independent 1.  There is a Labour minority administration.  The seats being defended are Lab 9, Con 5, Lib Dem 3.  Either the Tories or Labour could take overall control with a very good result.  Labour's best chances of a gain are probably Calder (which for some reason is not called Hebden Bridge) and Elland, both of which are Lib Dem held; the Tories will be looking at Labour held Luddendenfoot, Sowerby Bridge and Brighouse and Lib Dem held Greetland & Stainland and, again, Elland, which has voted for all three parties in recent years.  Some areas, including Elland, were badly affected by floods at Christmas; I don't know whether much of an effect will be noticeable.

Doncaster

Kirklees

Currently Lab 34, Con 17, Lib Dem 11, Green 4, Independent 3.  There is a Labour minority administration.  The seats being defended are Lab 12, Con 5, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Independent 1.  Labour only need one gain for overall control, but their 2012 result was so good that it's going to be hard to do that, and Denby Dale, which the Tories won in 2014 and 2015, looks vulnerable.  The Greens are defending Newsome, where they have all three councillors, and Kirkburton, which the Tories won in 2014 and 2015.  The Lib Dems are defending Cleckheaton, Almondbury and Colne Valley; they did a bit better in 2014 but worse with General Election turnout in 2015 when they only won Cleckheaton.

Leeds

Currently Lab 63, Con 19, Lib Dem 9, Morley Borough Independents (MBI) 5, Green 3.  Seats being defended are Lab 21, Con 6, Lib Dem 3, MBI 2, Green 1.  Only three wards have mixed party representation: Horsforth (Lib Dem defence, but a Tory win in 2015), Morley North (MBI defence, but a Labour win in 2015) and Rothwell (Lab defence, but a Lib Dem win in 2014).  The other Lib Dem defences are in Weetwood (north-west beyond Headingley) and in Otley & Yeadon; most of the Tory strength is in the north outside the city proper (what is Wetherby doing in Leeds city council's area again?) and the Green ward is Farnley & Wortley west of the city centre.  Little change seems likely.

Rotherham (all up)

Currently Lab 46, UKIP 12, Con 1, Independent 4.  Only one of the Independents was elected as such; two of the others were Labour (both in Valley ward) and one was UKIP (in Silverwood), but all of them are defending their seats as Independents.  UKIP did very well in 2014 when they topped the poll and won 10 out of 21 wards, less well in 2015 when they only won Sitwell, Hellaby and Keppel.  The Tories are facing wipe-out, with only one councillor left in Sitwell and even there only two candidates for the three vacancies.  Labour obviously still have problems in the borough, as is shown by the split in Valley ward, but I think they will keep control.

Sheffield (all up on new ward boundaries)

Currently Lab 59, Lib Dem 17, Green 4, UKIP 4.  The Lib Dems' stronghold is in the west and south-west, in Hallam constituency and the western end of Heeley, the Greens' is in the city centre and inner west, and UKIP's is in areas in the north which are somewhat semi-detached from Sheffield proper.  Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all have full slates, but the Tories and UKIP both have gaps.  (I only have one UKIP candidate to vote against.)  The Greens are trying to use the all up elections (it's multi-member FPTP with three councillors in each ward, so everyone has three votes) to get seats in new areas by nominating their candidates in certain wards as "first choice", "second choice" and "third choice" so that vote splitters mostly give their Green votes to the "first choice" candidates.  The boundary changes are fairly minor, but probably benefit the Greens in that the new Nether Edge & Sharrow, Broomhill & Sharrow Vale and City wards all look pretty good for them based on recent patterns.  If Labour do badly, expect "trees" to be mentioned as an explanation.

Wakefield

Currently Lab 53, Con 6, UKIP 2, Independent 2.  The seats up are all Labour except for the Tory stronghold of Wakefield South and in Ossett, where the Labour councillor elected in 2012 has turned Independent and is defending his seat as such.  The other non-Labour councillors are two UKIP councillors elected in 2014 in Ossett and Wrenthorpe & Outwood West, an Independent elected in 2014 in South Elmsall & South Kirkby, and Tories elected in 2015 in Ossett, Horbury & South Ossett and Wakefield Rural, all in the west of the borough.  I note a few Yorkshire First candidates.  Labour will do well to hold all their seats here but are so safe that even if they somehow lost every single seat up this year would keep control.

edit: Kirklees council hadn't updated their website after the by-elections, so the numbers were one out on the Tories and Lib Dems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and Mr Shabbir had previously been a member of the Liberal Democrats. The party skipping in Bradford is such a bizarre thing...

[jaichind]

Labour will not lose seats in local elections, Jeremy Corbyn says

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/03/labour-plans-to-gain-seats-in-local-elections-jeremy-corbyn-says

This seems bizarre.  It is almost certain that LAB will lose seats this time around since the last time most of these seats are contested was back in 2012 when the overall environment was much more favorable to LAB than today.   If anything Corbyn should be trying to lower expectations than go out on a limb only to look bad afterwards.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently that remark was a mistake and he was supposed to say something else. This is going so very, very well isn't it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just voted. Considered just writing 'abolish the South Yorkshire police' or 'hang the paedos' on the PCC ballot, but decided on just a straight Labour vote.

[jaichind]

Results so far not so bad for LAB especially considering that change is relative to 2012.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very strong Labour results in south Birmingham given the general picture; did not expect to see Northfield ward held.

[YL]

Very strong Labour results in south Birmingham given the general picture; did not expect to see Northfield ward held.

Birmingham in general, actually.  I realise there's a huge personal vote involved, but have you seen the margin in Sutton Vesey?  The only downside in Brum was that the Tories held Kingstanding with their massive personal vote.

Elsewhere in England it seems Labour have done a bit better than the media expected them too, and against the Tories things aren't that different from 2012.  There are a few places where UKIP have made inroads (e.g. Thurrock, Great Yarmouth) and I don't think Corbyn is actually going to achieve his mistaken prediction of no net seat loss.  (Though I don't like number of council seats changing hands being used as a measurement.  It's something to do with living in a ward with electorate 15000.)

I'm not expecting Sheffield to be great for Labour btw.  It's a combination of boundary changes, the dynamics of the all ups (both those two help the Greens), a likely Lib Dem dead cat bounce now they're out of coalition, and certain local issues.

[IceAgeComing]

The BBC tracker has the Tories now losing councillors and its been trending down ever since I got up after my election morning nap: its not going to happen but it'd be funny if they managed to lose more than Labour

e: Projected national vote share has the Lib Dems in third on 15%, ahead of UKIP.  These things are usually a bit dodgy but that doesn't seem very good for UKIP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Caven Vines, UKIP group leader in Rotherham, has lost his seat.

[ag]

LibDems seem to gain Watford.

[Clyde1998]

Looking at the BBC figures:

Lab -25
Con -34
Lib +37
Ind -2
UKIP +26
Grn -1
Oth -1

You can't say this has been a bad election for Labour.

[YL]

Barnsley

Currently Lab 54, Barnsley Independent Group (BIG) 4, Con 4, with one seat vacant (formerly Labour).  All seats being defended are held by Labour except for Penistone East (Con) and Worsbrough and Dodworth (both BIG).  The Tories will no doubt be targeting Penistone West, and perhaps UKIP will try to win somewhere, though this is the only South Yorkshire Met where they've never won a seat.

No seats changed hands in Barnsley.  Labour held Penistone West really quite comfortably.

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Labour won three of the Respect wards (if you count Heaton as Labour), the Lib Dems one (Bradford Moor) and an independent another (Little Horton).  An independent also took Keighley Central off Labour.  The ex-Tory independents held both Ilkley and Craven, and the Tories also lost Thornton & Allerton to Labour and Queensbury to Lynda Cromie.  Overall Labour gained three seats (counting Heaton) and the Lib Dems one, while the Tories lost two.

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Labour gained Calder and held both Luddendenfoot and Sowerby Bridge, but lost Brighouse to the Tories and Warley to the Lib Dems, who held Elland and Greetland & Stainland.  So overall Labour down one and the Tories up one, and still very much NOC.

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Some odd results here.  Labour won Colne Valley from the Lib Dems and held Denby Dale, but lost a by-election gain in Liversedge & Gomersal back to the Tories, and the Lib Dems confirmed a by-election gain in Golcar.  The Tories won Almondbury from the Lib Dems and Kirkburton from the Greens.  The new council is Lab 34, Con 20, LD 9, Green 3, Ind 3.

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No change at all.

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The result was Lab 48, UKIP 14, Independent 1.  The various defectors didn't trouble their former parties much.  Labour did best in the urban core and in the north of the borough, UKIP best in the more middle class areas (including Sitwell, where they did indeed wipe the Tories out).  The independent is in Anston & Woodsetts, and was first elected in 2012.  As mentioned above the UKIP leader lost his seat, but another UKIP candidate did get in in his ward.

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The result was Lab 57, LD 19, UKIP 4, Green 4.  Compared with the incumbents in the old wards, Labour lost two Beauchief & Greenhill seats to the Lib Dems and swapped seats with the Greens in Broomhill & Sharrow Vale and Nether Edge & Sharrow.  Labour held a West Ecclesfield seat against UKIP on the drawing of lots , but all four UKIP incumbents held on   Disappointing for the Greens, who must have been hoping for more than 4 councillors in the redrawn central wards.

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Labour almost did hold all their seats, only losing Wakefield Rural and recovering that Ossett seat from the ex-Labour independent.  They weren't even that far behind in Wakefield South.

[Vega]

You can't say this has been a bad election for Labour.

Yeah, it hasn't been. I'm not sure why anyone is reading into this any bad omens.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

STOP THE PRESSES

LABOUR HAVE OPPOSITION ON MANCHESTER CITY COUNCIL

now:
Lab 95 (-1)
Lib Dems 1 (+1)

[Clyde1998]

STOP THE PRESSES

LABOUR HAVE OPPOSITION ON MANCHESTER CITY COUNCIL

now:
Lab 95 (-1)
Lib Dems 1 (+1)

ALL OF A SUDDEN THIS IS A DISASTROUS ELECTION FOR LABOUR!

[Clyde1998]

You can't say this has been a bad election for Labour.

Yeah, it hasn't been. I'm not sure why anyone is reading into this any bad omens.

Yeah. The media have been saying "Corbyn is unpopular", "he'll never be PM" since he was elected. Yet, Corbyn is more popular than Cameron - according to polls - and Labour aren't losing ground on the Conservatives through all of this.