Where will Trump do better in New York?

[ElectionsGuy]

Reference Map:



I genuinely don't know, I'm trying to get a feel for the congressional district breakdown here.

[YaBoyNY]

Downstate easily, but he'll do great Upstate as well. He's a great fit for both areas.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I refuse on principle to emptyquote NYMillennial but he's right on this.

[homelycooking]

Incidentally, I think "New Yorkshire" or "New Netherland" are better terms for "upstate New York", as New Amsterdam refers to the settlement which grew into New York City and not the Dutch colony. I prefer New Yorkshire, as the topography of "upstate New York" resembles Yorkshire far more than it does the Netherlands, let alone York or Amsterdam.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Benchmark Politics made a map for the Democratic primary.

[Smash255]

Downstate, his appeal is probably equal in both areas, but Cruz will be a complete tire fire here.

[Holmes]

Benchmark Politics made a map for the Democratic primary.

Clinton loses Manhattan, and wins some north country counties? Come on.

[Progressive]

Benchmark Politics made a map for the Democratic primary.

Clinton loses Manhattan, and wins some north country counties? Come on.

Clinton losing Upstate makes sense, but I don't see why she'd be lean in Nassau. I'd say her support is stronger in Nassau than in Suffolk. She'll probably win Manhattan 55-45.

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, the Manhattan thing makes me want to throw this in the trash where it belongs.

[Eraserhead]

Dutchess is "Clinton Heavy"? Give me a break, she barely beat Obama here.

[Derpist]

Dutchess is "Clinton Heavy"? Give me a break, she barely beat Obama here.

Clinton 2008 support correlates very poorly with Clinton 2016 support. See: black southerners.

[Devils30]

NY-11, Staten Island has got to be Trump's best place in the country possibly.

[Eraserhead]

Dutchess is "Clinton Heavy"? Give me a break, she barely beat Obama here.

Clinton 2008 support correlates very poorly with Clinton 2016 support. See: black southerners.

Well yeah. That's kind of my point. It's very likely that Sanders will have a stronger performance with the people who reside in Dutchess than Obama did.

[Torie]

Incidentally, I think "New Yorkshire" or "New Netherland" are better terms for "upstate New York", as New Amsterdam refers to the settlement which grew into New York City and not the Dutch colony. I prefer New Yorkshire, as the topography of "upstate New York" resembles Yorkshire far more than it does the Netherlands, let alone York or Amsterdam.

Albany is the oldest Dutch settlement in NY, founded in 1614. NYC was not founded until 1625.

[dspNY]

Benchmark Politics made a map for the Democratic primary.

Some comments:

No way does Rockland (that little triangle bordering Jersey and above NYC) go for Sanders. Not after his comments about 10,000 Gazans being recklessly killed by Israel. Rockland is the most heavily Jewish county in the country and ironically Jewish precincts are going to Hillary by 2-1 (which is what we saw in Mass).

Manhattan at the very worst leans Clinton, and is probably likely Clinton. Yes there are some young voters there but it is almost a majority-minority borough (only 50.7% white).

The Staten Island vote in Democratic primaries is much more minority than Benchmark is predicting. Very polarized area.

Putnam is not going to be strong Sanders; it is a swing county. Lots of actual Wall Streeters live there.

Orange (my old home county) will be a swing county. Definitely not strong Clinton

Sullivan went for Teachout heavily in the NY Gov primary so it's possible Sanders does well there, same as Dutchess. Lots of white hardcore progressives in Dutchess who fled from the city (a Sanders demo).

Columbia County is Sanders territory, as is Greene and Delaware Counties. Broome will be close because it depends on how many Binghamton University students vote there as opposed to Long Island.

Aside from Albany County most of the northlands counties are for Sanders or swing counties (those north of Albany).

Onondaga County (Syracuse) is lean Clinton, not lean Sanders. Monroe County (Rochester) is lean Clinton, not strong Clinton

[Torie]

Hudsonians feeling festive at "Berning Man, the Revolution Comes to Hudson."  One of my buddies can be seen pounding the drums.



Clinton is going to carry "heavy" that county in the far NE? The Birkenstock Belt intrudes into that county.

[ElectionsGuy]

NYC: Trump 52, Kasich 37, Cruz 9
Suburbs: Trump 64, Kasich 21, Cruz 11
Upstate: Trump 44, Cruz 27, Kasich 24

From PPP. Looks like we solved this.

[Torie]

New poll says Trump crushes in the NYC burbs, is ahead by about 15 points in NYC (52% for Trump I recall), and it is considerably closer upstate. So now we sort of know. It's good to know that Trump will be wasting a lot of votes on the NYC burbs. He just crushes in Nassau and Suffolk counties, with more than 60% of the vote. So Kasich is really in the hunt for some delegates in NYC (Cruz is next to nothing in NYC and the NYC burbs), and both Cruz and/or Kasich upstate might pick off maybe 6-7 delegates or something like that. So my best guess is that Trump will get maybe 85 delegates. If "we" get lucky, it could fall below 80.

[Eraserhead]

Hudsonians feeling festive at "Berning Man, the Revolution Comes to Hudson."  One of my buddies can be seen pounding the drums.



Clinton is going to carry "heavy" that county in the far NE? The Birkenstock Belt intrudes into that county.

Helsinki is a good time!