Early predictions for FL-SEN

[Xing]

If you had to guess now, which party will win the Florida senate race this year?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murphy should he be nominated should beat GOP

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R with Grayson, Toss-Up with Murphy

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Likely R with Grayson, Toss-Up with Murphy

[JMT]

I think Murphy will win the nomination and the general election, so I voted Democrats.

[Kingpoleon]

Assuming Jolly:

Versus Grayson:
Rating: Likely R(7.5+ points), closer to Safe than Lean
Average Result: David Jolly: 52.5%; Alan Grayson 44.4%
Why: Jolly improves the Scott 2014 map in the Miami suburbs and suburbs in general.

Versus Murphy:
Rating: Toss-up/Tilt D(3.3 points D to 1.7 points R)
Average Result: Patrick Murphy: 49.2%; David Jolly: 48.3%
Why: Murphy gets the Crist 2014 map, improves in his district, and gets coattails in Crist's district, where Crist over performs.

[This account no longer in use.]

Primary: Tilt Murphy on Democratic side, Likely Jolly on Republican side
General election: Tilt D if Murphy, Lean R if Grayson

[TDAS04]

I think Murphy will win the nomination and the general election, so I voted Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If all things go as planned with Clinton win, FL and NH will go Dem to give Dems 50 seats. Pa, OH and AZ are still in play after that

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Going on a whim and saying lean Republican. We have the better party organization and an equally good candidate in Jolly and DeSantis. Murphy is formidable, but you still overrate his talents.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Why does everyone think Grayson would definitely lose the general? He's awful and would probably be the underdog, but if 2016 is terrible enough for Republicans, he'll win. The Democratic floor in FL is very high and it's not as if any of the Republican candidates running are much better. The 2012 Senate race was supposed to be close as well and Nelson won in a landslide.

That being said, I think Murphy will win the primary and the FL GOP will throw this seat away.

That is because Connie Mack was an idiot. A very rich idiot.

[IceSpear]

Why does everyone think Grayson would definitely lose the general? He's awful and would probably be the underdog, but if 2016 is terrible enough for Republicans, he'll win. The Democratic floor in FL is very high and it's not as if any of the Republican candidates running are much better. The 2012 Senate race was supposed to be close as well and Nelson won in a landslide.

That being said, I think Murphy will win the primary and the FL GOP will throw this seat away.

That is because Connie Mack was an idiot. A very rich idiot.

It was pretty funny seeing Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV getting curbstomped as soon as the polls closed when the media insisted the race would be a barnburner. lol

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Going on a whim and saying lean Republican. We have the better party organization and an equally good candidate in Jolly and DeSantis. Murphy is formidable, but you still overrate his talents.

Isn't DeSantis way too conservative for the state though?

Not really. He's definitely a right-winger but I don't find him to be Ted Cruz level.

[Vosem]

Republicans are likeliest because if the Democrats nominate Grayson the seat is probably pissed away, but I think if Murphy is nominated he starts with a small advantage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Murphy has plenty of time because Grayson supports Sanders and by the time Fall comes around Clinton and Murphy will team up. Primary in Sept.

[Kingpoleon]

The Democratic floor in FL is very high

21% is not "very high"

Crist+Meek gets you 49%. In 2006, the Democrats got 45.1% gubernatorially. In 2002, about 42.5%.

[Vosem]

The Florida Democratic Party does have a pretty high floor, in the low 40s; the problem is that the state Democratic Party is almost comically inept; even in much smaller states talented House freshmen wouldn't get the sort of instant attempts at promotion you're seeing for Murphy and Gwen Graham, who is clearly being groomed for the gubernatorial nomination in 2018. It's because there's literally no one else, and that's a failure of the party in such a large state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna win FL gov in 2018, Iowa is furtile ground for Dems as well as IL in 2018

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm assuming a toss-up Republican win until the primary is over. Discussing the general election aspect of this race until August isn't really going to be interesting.

[Kingpoleon]

Going on a whim and saying lean Republican. We have the better party organization and an equally good candidate in Jolly and DeSantis. Murphy is formidable, but you still overrate his talents.

Isn't DeSantis way too conservative for the state though?

Not really. He's definitely a right-winger but I don't find him to be Ted Cruz level.

Like Connie Mack IV?

[Orser67]

I voted Democratic, just because I think this is going to be a tough year for all non-Chuck Grassley Republican incumbents in swing/blue states. I don't think that even Grayson would run all that far behind the national ticket.

[Maxwell]

Democrats: Patrick Murphy is an empty suit, but he could be very strong in the right hands. Alan Grayson is general election poison. The problem is Democratic Primary voters could go with the man who is general election poison because he excites people to actually vote. I'd give Murphy a 55% chance of victory if he wins the nomination, and only a 5% chance of victory if Grayson wins the nomination.

Republicans: The Republican field is odd, three front-runners are there, but only one I can see having a real chance. While Ron DeSantis is probably too conservative for the state, he is a strong fundraiser and the only candidate with any real infrastructure. David Jolly and Carlos Lopez-Cantera are both paper tigers. I'd give DeSantis a 45% chance of victory if he wins the nomination, and 25% chance of victory for either of Jolly or Lopez-Cantera.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Why is the Republican field so weak? It's not as if the Democrats are running Bob Graham.

....it's not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio was clearly the favorite in 2010. But, it became an open and FL has been voting Dem in presidential years anyways. FL has changed since the Charlie Crist days and has become a mainstream Latino not GOP leaning state. NV and CO has changed. Thats why its a tossup with Trump or Cruz as nominee.