2016 Primaries Turnout Advantage Map
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Author Topic: 2016 Primaries Turnout Advantage Map  (Read 5410 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« on: April 11, 2016, 11:38:37 PM »
« edited: April 20, 2016, 01:21:41 PM by Wulfric »

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet



If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 247 EVs to the Democrats 56 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republican lead is 253-93. 192 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE: Republicans haven't voted yet
NV: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WY: No raw vote totals released


The message here is pretty clear - while primary turnout is not gospel for the general, it has to be concerning for D's that they have not outpaced the republicans in ANY swing state, not even MI or WI which people often put in the "blue wall". That being said, Republicans have some explaining to do in Louisiana and have to be concerned about how close NC was.

This map will be updated as more states vote.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2016, 12:07:23 AM »

LA was the only state in the deep south to have a closed primary.
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LLR
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2016, 05:46:38 AM »

When you have 17 candidate (or even the 5 that were left by Super Tuesday), you're going to get higher turnout than when you have 2, one of whom has been deemed "inevitable".

Not to mention that primaries have low turnout, just like midterms, and that's a climate in which, generally, Republicans are more dedicated.
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RI
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2016, 09:33:58 AM »

Alaska was 23007 R, 10608 D
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2016, 04:48:29 PM »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2016, 04:54:36 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2016, 04:57:30 PM by Zyzz »

The Republican primary has been extremely exciting to watch as a Democratic leaning voter. TRUMP has been an epic once in a generation candidate to watch running for president and makes that race much more appealing than then the relative snooze fest on the Democratic side. TRUMP's passionate supporters plus the #NEVERTRUMP crowd has been driving up turnout. There must have been a lot of Democrats and independents voting the Republican primary to stop TRUMP or back him.
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Kempros
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2016, 11:06:14 PM »

Don't Caucuses usually have lower turnouts or just the way they are organized displays less votes?
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2016, 10:40:42 PM »

While Iowa Republican numbers are widely available through several different sites, Democratic numbers can also be found online.

As per the Iowa Democratic Party's website, Democratic turnout was 171,517 compared to the Republican's 186,932.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2016, 10:56:13 PM »

While Iowa Republican numbers are widely available through several different sites, Democratic numbers can also be found online.

As per the Iowa Democratic Party's website, Democratic turnout was 171,517 compared to the Republican's 186,932.

So that's a 52.2/47.8 Republican advantage.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2016, 09:03:21 AM »

From the Atlas, here’s a ranking of the top primary states (that have voted so far) ranked by the number of votes cast in the Democratic primary:

1) Illinois 2.1 mil
2) New York 1.8 mil
3) Florida 1.7 mil
4) Texas 1.4 mil
5) Ohio 1.2 mil
6) Massachusetts 1.2 mil
7) Michigan 1.2 mil
8 ) North Carolina 1.1 mil
9) Wisconsin 1.0 mil
10) Virginia 0.8 mil

And the top 10 by Republican primary votes cast:

1) Texas 2.8 mil
2) Florida 2.4 mil
3) Ohio 2.0 mil
4) Illinois 1.4 mil
5) Michigan 1.3 mil
6) Georgia 1.3 mil
7) North Carolina 1.1 mil
8 ) Wisconsin 1.1 mil
9) Virginia 1.0 mil
10) Missouri 0.9 mil

That’s right.  Remarkably, New York doesn’t even make the top ten on the Republican side.  I guess closed primary + heavily Democratic state = it punches way below its weight population-wise.

Also, top five states by candidate:

Clinton
1) Florida 1.1 mil
2) New York 1.0 mil
3) Illinois 1.0 mil
4) Texas 0.9 mil
5) Ohio 0.7 mil

Sanders
1) Illinois 1.0 mil
2) New York 0.8 mil
3) Michigan 0.6 mil
4) Massachusetts 0.6 mil
5) Florida 0. 6 mil

Trump
1) Florida 1.1 mil
2) Texas 0.8 mil
3) Ohio 0.7 mil
4) Illinois 0.6 mil
5) New York 0.5 mil

Cruz
1) Texas 1.2 mil
2) Wisconsin 0.5 mil
3) Illinois 0.4 mil
4) North Carolina 0.4 mil
5) Florida 0.4 mil

Kasich
1) Ohio 0.9 mil
2) Michigan 0.3 mil
3) Illinois 0.3 mil
4) New York 0.2 mil
5) Florida 0.2 mil
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2016, 01:19:53 PM »

Updated with NY and IA

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet



If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 253 EVs to the Democrats 85 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republican lead is 259-116. 163 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE: Republicans haven't voted yet
NV: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WY: No raw vote totals released
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2016, 12:19:30 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 03:07:04 AM by Wulfric »

Finally, democratic turnout wins in a swing state primary - PA!

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet



If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 253 EVs to the Democrats 143 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republican lead is 259-168. 119 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE: Republicans haven't voted yet
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WY: No raw vote totals released
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2016, 02:11:55 AM »

Democratic Turnout won in Nevada too
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2016, 10:21:38 PM »


But, they were on different days of the week.  Likewise, we won't say that Democratic turnout won Kentucky when the Republicans had a caucus in March and the Democrats a primary in May.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2016, 07:35:12 AM »

tbh I'd rather have inaccurate data on the map than no data at all
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RI
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2016, 11:51:08 AM »

tbh I'd rather have inaccurate data on the map than no data at all

It's not inaccurate so much as slightly misleading.
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2016, 01:21:48 PM »

Washington and ND should be gray, not green, right?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2016, 01:30:17 PM »

Washington and ND should be gray, not green, right?

We're not getting raw R totals out of ND or raw D totals out of WA, so may as well color them green now.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #18 on: May 01, 2016, 05:51:20 PM »

WA still has primaries for both parties upcoming, though.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #19 on: May 01, 2016, 06:14:32 PM »

How many democrats are actually going to turn out for a contest that awards no delegates?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #20 on: May 01, 2016, 07:54:36 PM »

How many democrats are actually going to turn out for a contest that awards no delegates?

Almost 700,000 turned out in 2008, and there were zero delegates on the line then. It's super, super easy to vote here as it's all by mail.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: May 04, 2016, 03:37:20 AM »
« Edited: May 09, 2016, 11:24:29 PM by Wulfric »

A clear win in Indiana for the Republicans. They should surpass 270 EVs after NE and WV vote next week.

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet



If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 264 EVs to the Democrats 143 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republicans win the election 270-168. 108 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,108,730 R - 638,638 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE: Republicans haven't voted yet
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WY: No raw vote totals released
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #22 on: May 04, 2016, 11:12:34 AM »

A clear win in Indiana for the Republicans. They should surpass 270 EVs after NE and WV vote next week.

Red: More Democrats voted than Republicans
Blue: More Republicans voted than Democrats
Green: Raw vote totals not released for one or both parties
Gray: One or both parties have not voted yet



If this were to be the actual GE map, republicans would have amassed 264 EVs to the Democrats 143 EVs. If we give the green states to the party that carried them in 2012, then the Republicans win the election 270-168. 108 EVs are from states that haven't voted yet.

Actual Numbers (Mostly from NYT):

AL: 856,166 R - 398,164 D
AK: 23,007 R - 10,608 D
AZ: 531,049 R - 409,013 D
AR: 416,521 R - 218,120 D
CO: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
CT: 328,465 D - 212,190 R
DC: Democrats haven't voted yet
DE: 93,633 D - 69,892 R
FL: 2,355,183 R - 1,702,878 D
GA: 1,292,601 R - 761,218 D
HI: 33,716 D - 15,672 R
ID: 222,213 R - 23,884 D
IL: 2,015,647 D - 1,433,706 R
IA: 186,932 R - 171,517 D
IN: 1,106,836 R - 637,024 D
KS: 73,116 R - 39,043 D
KY: Democrats haven't voted yet
LA: 311,163 D - 301,169 R
ME: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
MA: 1,204,927 D - 631,395 R
MD: 846,899 D - 435,600 R
MI: 1,324,621 R - 1,194,643 D
MN: 191,647 D - 112,755 R
MS: 405,210 R - 220,790 D
MO: 933,783 R - 626,077 D
ND: Raw vote totals not released for Republicans
NE: Republicans haven't voted yet
NV: ~80,000 D - 75,216 R
NH: 284,120 R - 250,983 D
NC: 1,138,618 R - 1,129,241 D
NY: 1,817,552 D - 868,987 R
OH: 2,043,043 R - 1,202,163 D
OK: 459,542 R - 335,554 D
PA: 1,652,863 D - 1,573,338 R
RI: 121,253 D - 61,179 R
SC: 737,917 R - 369,526 D
TN: 854,445 R - 371,082 D
TX: 2,832,234 R - 1,433,908 D
UT: 177,204 R - 77,344 D
VT: 134,198 D - 61,013 R
VA: 1,024,913 R - 782,895 D
WA: Raw vote totals not released for Democrats
WI: 1,101,123 R - 1,003,904 D
WY: No raw vote totals released

Actually, the Democrats might sweep the rest since the Republican primary is over
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: May 04, 2016, 11:16:25 AM »

Democrats already voted in Nebraska, and only had a turnout of 31,000 or so. Republicans can beat that. And the West Virginia democratic party is dead.
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Bigby
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« Reply #24 on: May 04, 2016, 11:19:28 PM »

Man that makes for a strange electoral map. Remind me, how better are the Republicans doing with turnout versus the Democrats compared to say 2008? I'd ask for 2012, but Obama was not seriously challenged so...
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