Odds for each candidate per ballot

[The Other Castro]

I've been thinking that in order to properly determine candidate's nomination odds, you need to assign odds for each # of ballots happening, and the odds of each candidate winning on each ballot. For example, these are my odds:

Number of ballots required:
1 Ballot (30% chance): Trump (99%), Shenanigans (1%)
2 Ballots (55% chance): Cruz (85%), Kasich (10%), Ryan (3%), Trump (2%)
3 Ballots (5% chance): Cruz (60%), Kasich (24%), Ryan (15%), Trump (1%)
4 Ballots (5% chance): Cruz (39%), Kasich (30%), Ryan (30%), Trump (1%)
5 Ballots (4% chance): Ryan (65%), Cruz (17%), Kasich (17%), Trump (1%)
Over 5 Ballots (1% chance): Who the inks knows?


What are your odds for each ballot and the candidates for each ballot? For simplicity, assume that the only possible nominees are Trump, Cruz, Kasich, and Ryan/Romney/Other (whichever you prefer).

[PresidentTRUMP]

Who will win and have a chance on each Ballot:

On 1st Ballot: Trump
2nd Ballot: Cruz
3rd Ballot: Cruz
4th Ballot or further: Kasich

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Number of ballots required:
1 Ballot (25% chance): Trump (>99%)
2 Ballots (60% chance): Cruz (95%), Trump (5%)
3+ Ballots (15% chance): Cruz (75%), Kasich (10%), Field (10%), Trump (5%)

Overall, crunching the numbers:
Cruz: 68.25%
Trump: 28.75%
Kasich: 1.5%
Field: 1.5%

[standwrand]

1 Ballot (30% Chance): Trump (95%), Cruz, (4%), Field (1%)
2 Ballots (40% Chance): Cruz (75%), Trump (10%), Kasich (10%), Field (5%)
3 Ballots: (20%): Cruz (50%), Kasich (35%), Ryan (13%), Trump (2%)
4 Ballots (9%): Ryan (50%), Kasich (40%), Cruz (8%), Field (2%), Trump (<1%)
5 Ballots+: (1%): Ryan (60%), Field (40%)

[Orser67]

Number of ballots required:
1 Ballot (33% chance): Trump (95%), shenanigans (5%)
2 Ballots (33% chance): Cruz (65%), Trump (20%), field (15%)
3+ Ballots (33% chance): Cruz (50%), field (45%), Trump (5%)

I still think that Trump has a chance after the first ballot; we still don't know who will be elected as delegates and I could see him just barely winning on the second ballot.

Trump: 40%
Cruz: 38%
Field: 20%

[Thomas D]

Delegate Binding

In similar fashion, a map of what ballot delegates become unbound after.

Green = 0 ballots
Red = 1 ballot
Blue = 2 ballots
Yellow = 3 ballots
Gray = Never, unless other conditions met.

According to this, there will be 357 delegates that can't vote for Cruz on a 2nd ballot. If he gets shut out of Maryland and he and Trump split CA that number becomes 481.

That will leave 1993 delegates for Cruz to win support from.  1237 is 62% of that.

That's a high bar to clear on the 2nd ballot.   And if he can't do it then will his support begin to fall off?

[Why]

If Cruz is as unpopular as it is claimed and he will have lots of delegates which he did not pick isn't he in danger of losing some of his delegates as well.

Trump will lose lots of delegates after the first ballot, some which will go to Cruz but some will probably not want Cruz or Trump.

There has to be a real chance that Cruz and Trump will not get a combined 50% on the second ballot. That might mean Kasich/X gets selected or it might pave the way for the rules to be changed so that Kasich/X gets selected on a third ballot.

1 Ballots 50%: Trump 100%
2 Ballots 25%: Cruz 90%, Kasich 5%, X 5%, Trump 0%
3 Ballots 15%: Cruz 60%, Kasich 20%, X 20%
4 Ballots 5%: Cruz 50%, Kasich 20%, X 30%
5 Ballots+ 5%:  X 75%, Cruz 10%, Kasich 10%, deadlock and/or chaos 5%

X could be Ryan, Romney or anybody.

[Oak Hills]

Number of ballots required:
1 Ballot (60% chance): Trump (100%)
2 Ballots (20% chance): Cruz (70%), Trump (29%), Other (1%)
3 Ballots (10% chance): Cruz (80%), Trump (15%), Other (5%)
4+ Ballots (10% chance): Cruz (65%), Trump (10%), Other (25%)

[dax00]

1 ballot (48%)- Trump >99%, Insanity <1%
2 ballots (16%) - Trump 10%, Cruz 85%, Kasich 5%
3 ballots (19%) - Trump 2%, Cruz 88%, Kasich 10%
4 ballots (7%) - Trump 1%, Cruz 79%, Kasich 20%
5 ballots (5%) - Trump 5%, Cruz 64%, Kasich 27%, Ryan 4%
6-10 ballots (2%) - Trump 10%, Cruz 50%, Kasich 20%, Ryan 20%
11-20 ballots (3%) - Trump 0%, Cruz 40%, Kasich 30%, Ryan 15%, riot 15%

If riot:
Trump 60%, Cruz 30%, Kasich 0%, Ryan/Other 10%

Total: Trump 50.53%, Cruz 41.63%, Kasich 6.75%, Ryan/Other 1.09%

[Orser67]

I highly, highly doubt Ryan would even accept the offer.  He's 46, and his current position has no term limits.  He should just wait around, and if he can keep peace in the House

I do agree that Ryan is young and can wait for a long time, but I don't think that being the leader of the House Republican Caucus is a particularly great job given how well Boehner's tenure went.