When does Hillary clinch the nomination?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She won't

Can you do math? Or are you one of the people who think she'll be indicted? lol

It's not mathematically impossible for her to lose, but it's very unlikely for this reason.

Well yeah, it's not impossible. In the same sense that it wasn't impossible for McCain to win in 08 after losing Ohio. It requires ludicrous unimaginable scenarios basically.

That's not a great comparison since it was election night with an hour and a half until the western poll closings. What was McCain supposed to do, ram into precincts and throw out Obama votes en masse?

Here, Sanders still has days or weeks to change things depending on the state. Even for NY, he still has the debate and his Vatican speech to try to influence people with. Yes, it's highly unlikely that he'll reach 53% of the NY vote (target to catch up in pledged after winning CA by 17), but it is no comparison to election night just after McCain lost Ohio.

[The Mikado]

I think Sanders will concede on June 7th. The talk of taking it to the convention is to keep his supporters in yet-to-vote states from getting discouraged.

[°Leprechaun]

She won't

Can you do math? Or are you one of the people who think she'll be indicted? lol

All he would have to do is win the same percent of delegates as his popular vote percent in Wisconsin, 56.48%. He's not there yet, but he has been headed in that direction. He is already tied with Clinton and shows no sign of dropping or leveling off, the way she is. Even New York is getting close.
He is a race against time. He might not make it, it doesn't seem likely, but then again it never really did.

[°Leprechaun]

I would compare it to a football game. We're in the fourth quarter, or will be soon.

[IceSpear]

She won't

Can you do math? Or are you one of the people who think she'll be indicted? lol

It's not mathematically impossible for her to lose, but it's very unlikely for this reason.

Well yeah, it's not impossible. In the same sense that it wasn't impossible for McCain to win in 08 after losing Ohio. It requires ludicrous unimaginable scenarios basically.

That's not a great comparison since it was election night with an hour and a half until the western poll closings. What was McCain supposed to do, ram into precincts and throw out Obama votes en masse?

Here, Sanders still has days or weeks to change things depending on the state. Even for NY, he still has the debate and his Vatican speech to try to influence people with. Yes, it's highly unlikely that he'll reach 53% of the NY vote (target to catch up in pledged after winning CA by 17), but it is no comparison to election night just after McCain lost Ohio.

I mean, it seems like a waste of time to argue about whether something has a 0.01% or 0.1% or 1% chance of happening. The point is that it's ridiculously unlikely.

[RaphaelDLG]

She'll clinch pledged after Cali.  With supers idk

[Likely Voter]

Well if this were a football game we are in the third quarter, if we look at it in terms of each quarter having about 1/4 of the delegates, then the first quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/1, the second Quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/15. The third quarter ends on 4/26.

The score so far is:

Candidate	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
Clinton	606	566	136	-	1308
Sanders	415	444	237	-	1096
Remaining	-	-	631	1016	1647

Sanders was 313 'points' behind at halftime and he has been doing well in the third quarter so far. If he wins 60 more delegates than Clinton from the remaining states in the third quarter (NY, PA, CT, DE, MD, RI) then you could argue he is on pace to win the game. But to extend the metaphor, Sanders is going to need Clinton to start fumbling and throwing interceptions for him to actually win more delegates out of those 6 states.  
 
If Sanders is still over 200 'points' behind at the end of the quarter (4/26), it doesn't look good for him to win the game.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

With Supes, June 7. But Sanders will say she doesn't have the necessary delegates and try to fight it.

[Kingpoleon]

With Supes, June 7. But Sanders will say she doesn't have the necessary delegates and try to fight it.

[SillyAmerican]

With Supes, June 7. But Sanders will say she doesn't have the necessary delegates and try to fight it.

But better question: does FBI report to DoJ come before or after Hillary clinches the nomination? I say before, and that it doesn't go Clinton's way.

[Bojack Horseman]

June with California.

[Ogre Mage]

She won't

Can you do math? Or are you one of the people who think she'll be indicted? lol

All he would have to do is win the same percent of delegates as his popular vote percent in Wisconsin, 56.48%. He's not there yet, but he has been headed in that direction. He is already tied with Clinton and shows no sign of dropping or leveling off, the way she is. Even New York is getting close.
He is a race against time. He might not make it, it doesn't seem likely, but then again it never really did.

A 14-point Clinton lead in N.Y. is not close.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

If Sanders needs to win N.Y. by 4 points to be on pace to get a pledged delegate majority, that would mean he needs an 18 point swing in the current polls with one week to go.

[Frodo]

Well if this were a football game we are in the third quarter, if we look at it in terms of each quarter having about 1/4 of the delegates, then the first quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/1, the second Quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/15. The third quarter ends on 4/26.

The score so far is:

Candidate	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
Clinton	606	566	136	-	1308
Sanders	415	444	237	-	1096
Remaining	-	-	631	1016	1647

Sanders was 313 'points' behind at halftime and he has been doing well in the third quarter so far. If he wins 60 more delegates than Clinton from the remaining states in the third quarter (NY, PA, CT, DE, MD, RI) then you could argue he is on pace to win the game. But to extend the metaphor, Sanders is going to need Clinton to start fumbling and throwing interceptions for him to actually win more delegates out of those 6 states.  
 
If Sanders is still over 200 'points' behind at the end of the quarter (4/26), it doesn't look good for him to win the game.

I love this post....   

[Lyin' Steve]

Well if this were a football game we are in the third quarter, if we look at it in terms of each quarter having about 1/4 of the delegates, then the first quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/1, the second Quarter ended on Super Tuesday 3/15. The third quarter ends on 4/26.

The score so far is:

Candidate	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
Clinton	606	566	136	-	1308
Sanders	415	444	237	-	1096
Remaining	-	-	631	1016	1647

Sanders was 313 'points' behind at halftime and he has been doing well in the third quarter so far. If he wins 60 more delegates than Clinton from the remaining states in the third quarter (NY, PA, CT, DE, MD, RI) then you could argue he is on pace to win the game. But to extend the metaphor, Sanders is going to need Clinton to start fumbling and throwing interceptions for him to actually win more delegates out of those 6 states.  
 
If Sanders is still over 200 'points' behind at the end of the quarter (4/26), it doesn't look good for him to win the game.

I love this post....   

Candidate	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	TOTAL
Clinton	606	566	473	-	1645
Sanders	415	444	459	-	1318
Remaining	-	-	-	1016	1016