Predict how close the general will be (whichever party wins).

[°Leprechaun]

Each option can be a Dem or GOP win.
Option 1. It will be closer than 2012, GOP or Democrat could win
Option 2. It will be like 2012 or even not as close as 2012 - either party wins.

Based on what you think the most likely matchup(s) are/is -- Clinton v Trump or perhaps
Clinton v Cruz etc.

I think it will be close to 2012 or greater (option 2)

MAPS welcome

[Holmes]

Vs. Trump: greater than 2012
Vs. Cruz: similar to 2012

[TDAS04]

Clinton defeats Trump by 6 points in the popular vote.  Electoral map is same as 2012 except for North Carolina flipping. 

[°Leprechaun]

Clinton defeats Trump by 6 points in the popular vote.  Electoral map is same as 2012 except for North Carolina flipping. 

Yes, that appears the most likely map at this point in time, but I'll see how it changes in the next several months.

[/]

If this nation has truly become as polarized as many fear it has, I could actually see Clinton only winning in an election against Trump with the Obama 2012 states and NC/AZ/NE-02.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's hard to say without reliable polls, but this is what I sense:

Clinton: 350
Trump: 98
Tossup: 90

Clinton: 332
Cruz: 139
Tossup: 67

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump    vs.  Clinton
158 EVS  - 380 EVS

Cruz vs Clinton - I do believe it will be a closer election for this match-up
270 EVS  -    268 EVS

[Higgs]

Closer than 2012

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Similar to 2012, this electorate is way too polarized for massive swings.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump    vs.  Clinton
158 EVS  - 380 EVS

Cruz vs Clinton - I do believe it will be a closer election for this match-up
270 EVS  -    268 EVS

TED Cruz, right?  Minnesota?!

I think in all the noise of the Trump circus, people are forgetting just how much of a RWNJ this man is.

[Kingpoleon]

Vs. Kasich: a 2012 or greater R landslide
Vs. Cruz: a D landslide at least slightly greater than 2012

349: Clinton/Bayh(53.1%)
189: Cruz/Daniels(44.4%)
Others: 2.5%
Vs. Trump: a D victory close to or smaller than 2012

300: Clinton/Wyden(49.2%)
238: Trump/Brown(48.8%)
Others: 2.0%

[Bojack Horseman]

Vs. Trump: greater than 2012
Vs. Cruz: similar to 2012

[Vosem]

I'm inclined to say there's a bimodal distribution, with a massive, greater than 2008 blowout in a Clinton v. _trump election (in Clinton's benefit), and probably a narrow, reverse-2004 style victory in Clinton v. Cruz, where it's slightly closer than 2012. Deterministically, a closer election is the likeliest scenario, but probabilistically, a wider Democratic victory is likelier. Voted for the latter.

[°Leprechaun]

I've decided to add options. If you want me to add more, just ask.

You can still change your vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Vs. Kasich: a 2012 or greater R landslide
Vs. Cruz: a D landslide at least slightly greater than 2012

349: Clinton/Bayh(53.1%)
189: Cruz/Daniels(44.4%)
Others: 2.5%

This.  Very, very much this.  But dude, Florida?!

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I think Trump's support is too spread out to give him this many states.  And if he's getting enough support nationwide to get 238 electoral votes, there's no way he loses Arizona, which is a state served up on a platter for him.

[beaver2.0]

I predict a MASSIVE Democratic landslide, but one that will erode by 2020.

[NHI]

At this point; Clinton with at least 303 Electoral votes and 51% of the popular vote.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I predict a MASSIVE Democratic landslide, but one that will erode by 2020.

Only if the Republican Party fixes its massive organizational issues and ideological extremism.

[morgieb]

With Cruz, probably a win for Hillary similar to 2012. Cruz will keep his base in tact, but he just is too unlikeable and right-wing to win over Independents (yes more so than Hillary AFAIC). It's winnable for the Republicans with a strong campaign and the Democratic primary getting messy, but it's hard to see Cruz pulling it off in anything but a very low-turnout election.

With Trump....could be anything. At this stage I'll tip a 2008-esque win for Hillary, but if she plays her cards right and is able to marry the Sanders base well enough it could be Goldwater-esque for Trump. If Biden was the candidate instead I actually there would be a pretty good of that happening, but I'm not quite seeing it with Hillary (Biden would have more working-class and ethnic appeal, which is probably the only area where Trump seems to doing well apart from rusted-on Pubbies). He could even beat her if Trump pivots towards the centre and becomes less weird (unlikely to happen from what we've seen though).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

With Cruz, probably a win for Hillary similar to 2012. Cruz will keep his base in tact, but he just is too unlikeable and right-wing to win over Independents (yes more so than Hillary AFAIC). It's winnable for the Republicans with a strong campaign and the Democratic primary getting messy, but it's hard to see Cruz pulling it off in anything but a very low-turnout election.

This is what I want to believe.  Then I think about just how many states have elected TEA Party nutjob Senators and Congressmen, and I start to get scared.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would say 2012 and Dems win, but it depends on fast the House catches up to Senate.  I am hoping for a Dem majority in Fall.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

(Ignore shadings on this post)
With Trump: Margin significantly greater than 2012:

With Romney: Pretty much a repeat of 2012, give or take Florida and Iowa

With Cruz: Closer than 2012, too early to call

With Kasich: Closer than 2012, GOP favored

With Ryan: Margin similar to 2012, but flipped

With Rubio: Margin far greater than 2012 and flipped

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

For the last time, everyone: Cruz is NOT winning Wisconsin!

[Virginiá]

For the last time, everyone: Cruz is NOT winning Wisconsin!

It's like people think because Cruz won the Wisconsin primary, he's going to win the state in the general. Trump won the Hawaii caucus, so clearly he will win that state in the GE, right?

My predictions:

Clinton v Trump: 54% - 56% PV  (Clinton)
Clinton v Cruz: 53%~ PV  (Clinton)
Clinton v Kasich: Probably too close to call, but I don't see Kasich winning by a comfortable margin. I believe he only polls well right now because he has gotten little attention from the media and Democratic groups. I don't think he can overcome the enormous support deficit he will face as the candidate who no one voted for but somehow won the nomination. Trump/Cruz supporters will hate him for that.

Though for Cruz, I think he could lose by even more, but I don't feel comfortable speculating above 2008 margins - At least not until the fall.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

For the last time, everyone: Cruz is NOT winning Wisconsin!

It's like people think because Cruz won the Wisconsin primary, he's going to win the state in the general. Trump won the Hawaii caucus, so clearly he will win that state in the GE, right?

Exactly.  Cruz won just over 48% of the GOP Primary.  530,000 votes.  25.2% of total primary votes cast.  And a great deal of THOSE votes were #NeverTrump or otherwise strategic.

If he can't win half his own party, why is this performance an indication of his strength in the general?