GA: Clinton dominates

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Despite all the talk about Georgia trending Democratic, it is still a R+12 state. Obama lost it by 8 points while winning nationally by 4. Georgia in the long term is heading in the direction of VA and NC, but not for another 10-15 years.

[Kingpoleon]

Obviously this isn't believable, but polls showing Kasich leading the swing states by double digits totally are...

> the idea that Ohio is a swing state when the election is Clinton v. Trump

[DrScholl]

I'd not be so quick to dismiss this. States can see reversals in as little as one cycle, especially with out of the mainstream candidates like Trump and Cruz.

[Maxwell]

Found a picture of Trump's reaction to this poll:

[Kingpoleon]

Also: I'm pretty sure Obama's approvals aren't 56-41 positive by 15 when he lost the state by over half that in 2012.

[pbrower2a]

What is this? Electoral shift?

The era of Trump

Who exactly are the GEORGIA voters that you think are defecting over Trump?  LOL.

People tiring of the Republican majority in the House?

People who distrust the demagoguery of Donald Trump?

People scared of the reactionary agenda of Ted Cruz?


...Dubya was an awful President, but at the least he knew when to keep his mouth shut and about what during a campaign. Could Cruz and Trump be less adept campaigners than Dubya?

[Skye]

Maybe they switched the numbers? It would make more sense.

[Fargobison]

Hillary favorability 49/48 in Georgia?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

But I'm not surprised that the usual hacks on this forum are taking this poll seriously.

Was waiting for somebody to bring that up...When I saw that I knew this was ARG level trash.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Hillary favorability 49/48 in Georgia?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

But I'm not surprised that the usual hacks on this forum are taking this poll seriously.

Yea that isn't believable when her nationals are almost 20 points unfavorable.

[Xing]

Obviously this isn't believable, but polls showing Kasich leading the swing states by double digits totally are...

> the idea that Ohio is a swing state when the election is Clinton v. Trump

Then what are the swing states of Clinton vs. Trump? Arizona and North Carolina?

[pbrower2a]

I don't know if I fully trust this one. Unless the Republican nominee is a complete turkey*, no way do I expect Georgia to go for the Democratic nominee for President. On the other hand, Georgia leans about as R as Missouri, where a recent poll shows Clinton leading Trump. Georgia is more D (and probably more elastic) than Mississippi and Texas, where Hillary Clinton is within the margin of error in another poll. (Not that I trust any poll of Texas!)  Georgia is not much more R than North Carolina, and the most recent poll of North Carolina shows Clinton  leading both Trump and Cruz. But not this much!

But this said, Georgia was Barack Obama's second-closest loss in both 2008 and 2012. I'd like to see another poll corroborate or contradict this. If Hillary Clinton is winning Georgia, then she is on the way to winning at least 390 electoral votes.  Dislike this poll? then just wait for another. The most recent poll of Georgia is stale.

*Then again, what if he is?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will probably lose just like Romney did. And the election not ending up that close. Great for our Senate candidates. More seats.

Not necessarily. For example, it looks like Toomey could win in PA even with Clinton carrying the state by a decent margin. Remember, there were tons of Gore/Santorum voters in 2000.

Toomey was leading by 10 in June of 2010 and only won by 2. Dems need Pa.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Despite all the talk about Georgia trending Democratic, it is still a R+12 state. Obama lost it by 8 points while winning nationally by 4. Georgia in the long term is heading in the direction of VA and NC, but not for another 10-15 years.

Actually, the way Cook calculates PVI, that would make GA R+6 (i.e. and D-6).

[This account no longer in use.]

Oh, great. This will be the same as that one Utah poll, and everybody will start saying Georgia is safe Democratic now.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The real hacks are people saying Trump will win PA, NJ & MI because "the rule book has been thrown out the window this year" and other nonsense.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Could the entire south be in play? Holy crap.

[Fargobison]

The real hacks are people saying Trump will win PA, NJ & MI because "the rule book has been thrown out the window this year" and other nonsense.

Don't forget about NY, which is the funniest of all. But for many Trumpers whatever their orange God says is the truth.

[HAnnA MArin County]

As nice as this poll sounds, I'm still calling BS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is Dems goal because of Latinos and obviously defeating McCain. This poll shows that Dems are expanding map against Trump

[pbrower2a]

Could the entire south be in play? Holy crap.

Of course -- if white Southerners are going back to the partisan patterns normal when Jimmy Carter was President, Hillary Clinton could be on the way to a 450-EV win in November.  But if only as they were in the 1990s? We could see her pick up every state that Bill Clinton ever won in the 1990s except perhaps Montana -- but win Virginia.

Carter 1976, Obama 2008/2012   

Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

Let the Republicans have everything in blue, and  only everything in blue (maybe exchanging Alabama for Arizona), and the Republicans have a nightmare -- their worst election since at least 1964 for the Presidency.

I'm not saying that this happens.

This map is even messier, if only less decisive a Democratic Presidential win:

deep blue -- all elections for the Republican
medium blue --  all but one election for the Republican (but once for Obama)
pale blue -- all but once for the Republicans (but once for Clinton)
deep green -- Clinton twice, but Obama losing by more than 10% twice
medium green -- Clinton twice, Obama barely losing once
yellow -- Clinton once, Obama twice
tan -- Clinton never, Obama twice
medium red -- all but one election for the Democrat
deep red -- all elections for the Democrat

white -- always went for the winner  (Clinton twice, George W. Bush twice, Obama)

...imagine anything not in dark blue, and the Republican nominee still faces the worst landslide loss for a Republican since 1964. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have the advantage and Va is gone for the GOP.  Clinton will be the nxt prez with Dem Senate.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Junk....

[Joe Republic]

[pbrower2a]

Junk....

The Democratic nominee for President can win without Georgia. If Georgia is at all close, then the Democrats are winning nationwide. Likewise Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina.  The Democratic nominee is winning Florida and North Carolina if he has a chance of winning Georgia. He's winning Colorado and Nevada if he has a chance of winning Arizona. He's winning Ohio if he is winning either Indiana or Missouri.

How insignificant is Georgia to this Presidential race? It's the mirror image of Michigan, a state which the Democrat must have as a decisive win to have a real chance at the Presidency. The Senate seat will matter more in Georgia.