Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, that brings up the question of where, when, and how Trump is most likely to make the announcement.  Will he want to do it at a big campaign rally?  Or will he just do it on Twitter in 140 characters?

[Maxwell]

This begs the question - why on earth is he going with Pence? Not the worst possible choice, but it's picking someone who is downright unpopular in his home state, and is the face of very unpopular anti-gay policies (a group of people that Trump has made a great deal of effort not to offend, at least compared to the other groups).

I mean, maybe he's trying to hold his conservative flank together so that he doesn't fall completely apart by general election time. I don't know. It's just a perplexing choice to me.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I really don't get the Pence angle either. If he wants a social conservative, he ought to just grab some rando Governor like Butch Otter who is low key, experienced, and relatively popular.

[Mr. Morden]

I mean, maybe he's trying to hold his conservative flank together so that he doesn't fall completely apart by general election time. I don't know. It's just a perplexing choice to me.

Compared to who though?  All the A-list choices don't want to do it.

EDIT: I mean, a few months ago, I was thinking that if things got *really* bad for Trump, he might have to go with a C-list option like Paul LePage or Allen West.  I'd say Pence is at least a step up from them.

[IceSpear]

Yes, it's likely many people Trump would've wanted before Pence declined.

Pence clearly has no interest in being governor and was just using it as a stepping stone to run for president, which Indiana sadly obliged. But he knows if he ran for president on his own merits he'd just be another boring Pawlenty/Walker loser. So he sees this as a great opportunity, win or lose, to distinguish himself from the crowd.

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, when I was looking around for something else, I recently came across this thread:

It won't be difficult for TRUMP to find a running-mate. Most sane Republicans would be absolutely jumping with joy to help out TRUMP.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's my guess about Pence:

1) Someone conducted an internal poll for the gubernatorial campaign that showed troubling results. No major prognosticator has placed the race in "Toss-Up" status because there isn't much public polling (and the polling that exists suggests a Pence lead) and because nobody knows if voters will care about/even remember RFRA at the voting booth more than a year after the fact. But maybe private polls are showing a dire or potentially dire situation that the public sphere isn't aware of.

2) Someone (probably Holcomb) made someone in the Pence re-election campaign aware that they could shut down Gregg better. Completely quiet and off the record of course, but the message was delivered.

3) In comes Trump. Perhaps he isn't on a last resort "please say yes" visit/call, perhaps Gingrich, Corker, or Christie would say yes if asked, but he wants better ticket chemistry or current knowledge of Washington than he feels they offer. (Pence was in the house from 2001-2013) Or perhaps they've all said no, or they all have major skeletons we don't know about. Or some combination of all this. Take your pick. In any case, Trump tries to persuade Pence to consider VP. Pence probably says no a bunch of times, but Trump is persistent, and probably someone high up in the Pence campaign is sympathetic to the idea.

4) Essentially where we are now. Pence probably still hasn't made any final, irrevocable obligation. But Holcomb (or whoever the replacement is), his campaign, Trump, and possibly troubling polling numbers have put him in a place where he is likelier than not to agree to be Trump's VP.

[Phony Moderate]

If Trump picks Gingrich then Clinton should pick Gore, just so we can have two tickets that each have two 90s superstars on them.

[Mr. Morden]

3) In comes Trump. Perhaps he isn't on a last resort "please say yes" visit/call, perhaps Gingrich, Corker, or Christie would say yes if asked, but he wants better ticket chemistry or current knowledge of Washington than he feels they offer. (Pence was in the house from 2001-2013) Or perhaps they've all said no, or they all have major skeletons we don't know about. Or some combination of all this. Take your pick. In any case, Trump tries to persuade Pence to consider VP. Pence probably says no a bunch of times, but Trump is persistent, and probably someone high up in the Pence campaign is sympathetic to the idea.

4) Essentially where we are now. Pence probably still hasn't made any final, irrevocable obligation. But Holcomb (or whoever the replacement is), his campaign, Trump, and possibly troubling polling numbers have put him in a place where he is likelier than not to agree to be Trump's VP.

To be clear, we have no reason to believe that Trump has settled on Pence.  Just that he's one of the most likely prospects at this time.  It sounds like Manafort and the other political professionals in Trump-world like Pence, and think he's at least better than Gingrich and Sessions.  But whether Trump himself is sold on him or not is unclear.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Here's my guess about Pence:

1) Someone conducted an internal poll for the gubernatorial campaign that showed troubling results. No major prognosticator has placed the race in "Toss-Up" status because there isn't much public polling (and the polling that exists suggests a Pence lead) and because nobody knows if voters will care about/even remember RFRA at the voting booth more than a year after the fact. But maybe private polls are showing a dire or potentially dire situation that the public sphere isn't aware of.

2) Someone (probably Holcomb) made someone in the Pence re-election campaign aware that they could shut down Gregg better. Completely quiet and off the record of course, but the message was delivered.

3) In comes Trump. Perhaps he isn't on a last resort "please say yes" visit/call, perhaps Gingrich, Corker, or Christie would say yes if asked, but he wants better ticket chemistry or current knowledge of Washington than he feels they offer. (Pence was in the house from 2001-2013) Or perhaps they've all said no, or they all have major skeletons we don't know about. Or some combination of all this. Take your pick. In any case, Trump tries to persuade Pence to consider VP. Pence probably says no a bunch of times, but Trump is persistent, and probably someone high up in the Pence campaign is sympathetic to the idea.

4) Essentially where we are now. Pence probably still hasn't made any final, irrevocable obligation. But Holcomb (or whoever the replacement is), his campaign, Trump, and possibly troubling polling numbers have put him in a place where he is likelier than not to agree to be Trump's VP.

Good analysis, but I suspect you're putting more thought into this than Trump is.

I think the final decision is going to come down to "Trump's gut", which will be heavily influenced by which of his advisers has his ear at at the moment, and which candidate seems like the most appealing sycophant to Trump.

Sure, if Manafort wins we're likely to see someone like Pence, if not Pence himself. But I think it's at least equally likely that Trump goes with a more Trumplike pick: Gingrich and Palin are probably the politicians with any national recognition that are Trumpish, but Ivanka, or someone even more out of the ballpark - Kayne West or some other celebrity - are quite possible.

[JRP1994]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/09/a-curveball-in-trumps-veep-search-hes-seriously-considering-a-retired-general/?postshare=6911468082970714&tid=ss_tw

"After weeks of focusing on a group of current and former elected officials in his search for a running mate, Donald Trump is increasingly intrigued by the idea of tapping retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn in order to project strength and know-how on national security, according to four people familiar with the vetting process."

"The shift in how Trump is evaluating his short list is driven by his growing sense that he does not necessarily want or need a running mate who will satisfy Republican insiders, in spite of long saying that he would likely go in that direction. Instead, and after some testy exchanges with GOP lawmakers during his visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday, Trump is more open than ever to going with a non-politician."

[Sir Mohamed]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/09/a-curveball-in-trumps-veep-search-hes-seriously-considering-a-retired-general/?postshare=6911468082970714&tid=ss_tw

"After weeks of focusing on a group of current and former elected officials in his search for a running mate, Donald Trump is increasingly intrigued by the idea of tapping retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn in order to project strength and know-how on national security, according to four people familiar with the vetting process."

"The shift in how Trump is evaluating his short list is driven by his growing sense that he does not necessarily want or need a running mate who will satisfy Republican insiders, in spite of long saying that he would likely go in that direction. Instead, and after some testy exchanges with GOP lawmakers during his visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday, Trump is more open than ever to going with a non-politician."

Well, Flynn is likely not hurting that much because he has no political ballast. He was fired by President Obama, that could actually help the Trumpster with Republicans. But the fact that he's a registered Democrat may hurt him with staunch GOPers, but may help again with anti-Clinton Democrats. It would be a total unpredictable choice, since it is also unclear how Flynn would perform on the campaign trail. He never ran for office. But quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump makes such a choice.

[Higgs]

I'm on board for Flynn now.

[Averroës Nix]

Does anyone know anything about Flynn's views on non-defense issues? Most Republicans will want this kind of information from a potential POTUS, don't you think? (Or are we in full damage-control mode now, just looking for anyone vaguely qualified who won't add to the ticket's embarrassment factor?)

[The Other Castro]

From an interview with AP today:

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http://bigstory.ap.org/cfa20a0ecd0c410481799f09e8bc3ca1#


Also, Christie will be with Trump in Virginia on Monday:

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http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/07/christie_to_join_trump_in_virginia_amid_vp_specula.html

[Mr. Morden]

Latest from CNN:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/09/politics/newt-gingrich-donald-trump-vice-president/

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[Mr. Morden]

So Trump's schedule for the week is:

Monday: campaigning in Virginia with Christie
Tuesday: fundraiser in Chicago, then campaign rally in Indiana (presumably with Pence)
Wednesday and Thursday: fundraising in southern California
Friday: unknown, but this is Pence's deadline

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich attended a meeting of the MEK this weekend(!):

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/newt-gingrich-attends-meeting-of-controversial-iranian-dissi

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[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/09/a-curveball-in-trumps-veep-search-hes-seriously-considering-a-retired-general/?postshare=6911468082970714&tid=ss_tw

"After weeks of focusing on a group of current and former elected officials in his search for a running mate, Donald Trump is increasingly intrigued by the idea of tapping retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn in order to project strength and know-how on national security, according to four people familiar with the vetting process."

"The shift in how Trump is evaluating his short list is driven by his growing sense that he does not necessarily want or need a running mate who will satisfy Republican insiders, in spite of long saying that he would likely go in that direction. Instead, and after some testy exchanges with GOP lawmakers during his visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday, Trump is more open than ever to going with a non-politician."

According to that story, the other general who was in the mix isn’t interested:

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Also, on Flynn and Russia:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Fallin says that she'd take the job...but so far, she's had no contact with the Trump campaign about being VP:

http://www.fox23.com/news/fallin-says-she-is-ready-to-serve-as-vp-despite-no-contact-from-trump/393983581

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[The Other Castro]

Apparently Michael Flynn's registration as a Democrat might cause some ballot issues in Florida and West Virginia.

[Suburbia]

Apparently Michael Flynn's registration as a Democrat might cause some ballot issues in Florida and West Virginia.

I think it will be Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) I like her. She's beautiful, tough, and smart. Other people he should include on the veep list should be former CEO Herman Cain of Georgia, and maybe even Milwaukee County Sheriff David A. Clarke.

[Higgs]

Apparently Michael Flynn's registration as a Democrat might cause some ballot issues in Florida and West Virginia.

He'd likely change his registration to Republican.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently Flynn has a book coming out on Tuesday:

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/9/12129202/michael-flynn-vice-president-donald-trump

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[The Other Castro]

Apparently Michael Flynn's registration as a Democrat might cause some ballot issues in Florida and West Virginia.

He'd likely change his registration to Republican.

Well according to Florida statute 99.021 2(b2), someone cannot qualify for the nomination of a party if that person has been registered to any other party a year beforehand.