Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them

[Oak Hills]

I still don't understand what's so terrible about Vilsack.

[DINGO Joe]

I can't believe I'm begging Hillary to pick Kaine at this point. 

He makes sense strategically, is ready, and Vilsack is extremely conservative, despite the fact that i don't like him (Kaine).

What's so conservative about Vilsack anyway?

[Holmes]

Warren's already gonna be in Florida on Saturday.

[RaphaelDLG]

I can't believe I'm begging Hillary to pick Kaine at this point. 

He makes sense strategically, is ready, and Vilsack is extremely conservative, despite the fact that i don't like him (Kaine).

What's so conservative about Vilsack anyway?

Wants to cut social security/medicare, is weak on climate change.  He is very in favor of weed legalization, so he could potentially pull in some BernieBros.

[DINGO Joe]

I can't believe I'm begging Hillary to pick Kaine at this point. 

He makes sense strategically, is ready, and Vilsack is extremely conservative, despite the fact that i don't like him (Kaine).

What's so conservative about Vilsack anyway?

Wants to cut social security/medicare, is weak on climate change.  He is very in favor of weed legalization, so he could potentially pull in some BernieBros.

Well, a VP's role really is to aid the POTUS is his/her agenda.  I'd expect if Vilsack was VP his focus would still be mainly on rural issues and given his personal history, substance abuse.

[Erc]

Clinton/Vilsack made some sense in 2008 (when he dropped his tentative bid to clear the way for her in Iowa; that turned out so well, didn't it?).  Makes zero sense in 2016--as, to be honest, does all the talk about other minor cabinet secretaries (Castro, Perez until a few days ago, etc.).

Democrats basically always pick a sitting Senator as a VP, and I see no evidence that they're going to break with tradition this time.  The exceptions (since 1928, before that we go into Klanbake territory):

1984: a lot of pressure for a woman but no Democratic Senators were female; didn't exactly turn out well.
1940: closest analogue to Vilsack, I suppose, with Roosevelt running for a third term picking his Ag Secretary he trusts.

[Mr. Morden]

“Labor Secretary Tom Perez’s Grandfather Served Dominican Dictator”:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-secretary-tom-perezs-grandfather-served-dominican-dictator-1468972020

[Ogre Mage]

Yeah, Kaine is definitely the wiser choice, by this point.

That was my thought.  Kaine is younger, a sitting U.S. Senator, has better foreign policy credentials, represents a diverse constituency in VA, speaks Spanish and is slightly more progressive.  If Vilsack is the pick, the Shirley Sherrod incident may not be very inspiring for African-American voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Note that if Kaine is picked, then McAuliffe picks his replacement in the Senate, but that person then faces a special election in just a year's time (November 2017).  Will McAuliffe be able to find someone who'd be favored to win that election in an odd-numbered year?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Note that if Kaine is picked, then McAuliffe picks his replacement in the Senate, but that person then faces a special election in just a year's time (November 2017).  Will McAuliffe be able to find someone who'd be favored to win that election in an odd-numbered year?

At this point Generic D vs. Generic R goes to the D in Virginia.

[Mr. Morden]

Note that if Kaine is picked, then McAuliffe picks his replacement in the Senate, but that person then faces a special election in just a year's time (November 2017).  Will McAuliffe be able to find someone who'd be favored to win that election in an odd-numbered year?

At this point Generic D vs. Generic R goes to the D in Virginia.

In a presidential year, yes.  In an odd-numbered year though, is it so obvious?

[PeteB]

Yeah, Kaine is definitely the wiser choice, by this point.

That was my thought.  Kaine is younger, a sitting U.S. Senator, has better foreign policy credentials, represents a diverse constituency in VA, speaks Spanish and is slightly more progressive.  If Vilsack is the pick, the Shirley Sherrod incident may not be very inspiring for African-American voters.

Note how the narrative went from "she has to pick a progressive" to "Kaine is the better choice" - you have to give Clinton's team credit for effective PR .

All teasing aside, Kaine is undoubtedly a politically smarter choice, not only against Vilsack, but against Warren or Perez.

[The Other Castro]

Clinton has basically used the "surround yourself with ugly friends at a club to make yourself look cute" tactic for Kaine.

[Gass3268]

Clinton has basically used the "surround yourself with ugly friends at a club to make yourself look cute" tactic for Kaine.

It's either (in probable order):

1) What you've stated here.
2) Really setting the media up for a surprise or unexpected pick like Warren, etc.
3) They really are considering Vilsack

[swf541]

Pretty happy with any of the choices that seem to be likely.  I'd like Vilsack over Kaine, but Kaine is great too.

[Mr. Morden]

New CNN story on the veepstakes:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/19/politics/hillary-clinton-vice-president-search/

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[Illiniwek]

but they are not the only two prospects still in contention.

[/quote]

And there we go. Door = open

[Sir Mohamed]

Kaine is by far the better and safer choice than more conservative and low-profile Vilsack. He has experience as governor and senator (therefore on national security and foreign policy).

[Del Tachi]

Note that if Kaine is picked, then McAuliffe picks his replacement in the Senate, but that person then faces a special election in just a year's time (November 2017).  Will McAuliffe be able to find someone who'd be favored to win that election in an odd-numbered year?

McAuliffe obviously wants Kaine to be appointed so he can run for the seat in the 2017 special.

Probably get some feel-good McAuliffe adviser/insider as an interim until then.  Someone like Carlos Hopkins fits that bill. 

And I'll agree, all of the talk of Vilsack is just a way to get progressives begging for Kaine by the time of the announcement this weekend. 

[psychprofessor]

Clinton has basically used the "surround yourself with ugly friends at a club to make yourself look cute" tactic for Kaine.

It's either (in probable order):

1) What you've stated here.
2) Really setting the media up for a surprise or unexpected pick like Warren, etc.
3) They really are considering Vilsack

head fake...these leaks are not typical of the clinton campaign...i would be surprised if it actually turned out to be kaine or vilsack now because the clinton camp has been so tight lipped...i also think clinton realizes the importance of women and latinos to beat trump...thinking it's warren, perez or becerra.

[Gass3268]

Clinton has basically used the "surround yourself with ugly friends at a club to make yourself look cute" tactic for Kaine.

It's either (in probable order):

1) What you've stated here.
2) Really setting the media up for a surprise or unexpected pick like Warren, etc.
3) They really are considering Vilsack

head fake...these leaks are not typical of the clinton campaign...i would be surprised if it actually turned out to be kaine or vilsack now because the clinton camp has been so tight lipped...i also think clinton realizes the importance of women and latinos to beat trump...thinking it's warren, perez or becerra.

Exactly, you expanded on my point 2.

[PeteB]

Clinton has basically used the "surround yourself with ugly friends at a club to make yourself look cute" tactic for Kaine.

It's either (in probable order):

1) What you've stated here.
2) Really setting the media up for a surprise or unexpected pick like Warren, etc.
3) They really are considering Vilsack

head fake...these leaks are not typical of the clinton campaign...i would be surprised if it actually turned out to be kaine or vilsack now because the clinton camp has been so tight lipped...i also think clinton realizes the importance of women and latinos to beat trump...thinking it's warren, perez or becerra.

Exactly, you expanded on my point 2.

...wishful thinking...

[Del Tachi]

Interesting to see the NYT say the announcement will come Saturday when the campaign was signalling Friday earlier in the week.

My thoughts:

(1) Hillary hasn't actually made the pick yet, and might need an extra day to decide (unlikely)
(2) The campaign has contingency plans and is prepared to use either a Friday or Saturday event as an announcement.  If the RNC continues to go bad, expect a Saturday announcement (it allows the negative news out of Cleveland to dominate for a whole other news cycle).  If Trump's acceptance speech goes well, expect a Friday announcement as a way to stop any positive momentum. 

I'd say number 2 is probably what's going on here.

For those of you in the know, does Warren's schedule have her in Florida on both Friday and Saturday?  Or just one of the days?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I am cautiously optimistic that she'll make an exciting pick.

I mean, she must have "felt the magic" during her joint rally with Warren, because there's no way she could have felt it with Kaine. It was just so obvious what a bore the guy is, and for all her flaws, Hillary isn't stupid.

Plus, it seems to me that Trump has kind of made a tactical error. Pence was a super-boring pick, and his convention so far has been a dud. It'll appeal to the most hardcore of hardcore Republicans, but I have a hard time seeing how someone who is on the fence could turn on the TV, witness the tone of the RNC (blatant racism, factless lip-flapping, chants of "lock her up!" etc.) and feel more comfortable voting Trump.

A choice like Kaine or Vilsack is status quo. Maybe it keeps the race at Clinton +3 or so, but that's still an uncomfortably thin margin when the stakes are as high as they are. At this stage with Trump, I have a very hard time seeing how Warren would actually hurt Clinton, net-net... and with Warren there is a real opportunity to unleash some excitement for the campaign. What is more, I think Warren's energy helps make Hillary a better candidate herself. And when she feels like she's fighting to make history, it becomes personal for her and she begins to exude a kind of warmth that could improve her favourables. Plus, Hillary needs a more coherent message, and Warren helps crystallize one for the campaign (kind of like how Romney's Ryan pick was seen at the time to give the GOP ticket some ideological teeth).

Even so, my one fear with Trump is that his campaign and messaging are so thin that it is very easy for people to project whatever they want onto him. A core message of "greatness" is pretty flexible. CNN had a family of Trump supporters on Don Lemon's show last night (a black family, no less), and their message was thoughtful, precise, well-informed... except Trump has never really indicated his support for what this family was fighting for. They just, sort of... saw it in him. That's scary. Especially when it gives surrogates the chance to actually present an intelligent case for Trump.

All that to say, Hillary needs someone who actually makes her ideological case stronger as well as someone who is not afraid to go on the attack in a substantial way. She also needs to find a way to at least partially make her campaign transcend the political and become a movement. The only candidate who does all this for her is Warren. The party's demographic advantage makes it hard for Hillary to lose regardless, but it would be nice to give the Republicans a thumping so that things can actually get done. And long-term, the only way Hillary wins re-election is if she can actually point to progress.

[Gass3268]

I am cautiously optimistic that she'll make an exciting pick.

I mean, she must have "felt the magic" during her joint rally with Warren, because there's no way she could have felt it with Kaine. It was just so obvious what a bore the guy is, and for all her flaws, Hillary isn't stupid.

Plus, it seems to me that Trump has kind of made a tactical error. Pence was a super-boring pick, and his convention so far has been a dud. It'll appeal to the most hardcore of hardcore Republicans, but I have a hard time seeing how someone who is on the fence could turn on the TV, witness the tone of the RNC (blatant racism, factless lip-flapping, chants of "lock her up!" etc.) and feel more comfortable voting Trump.

A choice like Kaine or Vilsack is status quo. Maybe it keeps the race at Clinton +3 or so, but that's still an uncomfortably thin margin when the stakes are as high as they are. At this stage with Trump, I have a very hard time seeing how Warren would actually hurt Clinton, net-net... and with Warren there is a real opportunity to unleash some excitement for the campaign. What is more, I think Warren's energy helps make Hillary a better candidate herself. And when she feels like she's fighting to make history, it becomes personal for her and she begins to exude a kind of warmth that could improve her favourables. Plus, Hillary needs a more coherent message, and Warren helps crystallize one for the campaign (kind of like how Romney's Ryan pick was seen at the time to give the GOP ticket some ideological teeth).

Even so, my one fear with Trump is that his campaign and messaging are so thin that it is very easy for people to project whatever they want onto him. A core message of "greatness" is pretty flexible. CNN had a family of Trump supporters on Don Lemon's show last night (a black family, no less), and their message was thoughtful, precise, well-informed... except Trump has never really indicated his support for what this family was fighting for. They just, sort of... saw it in him. That's scary. Especially when it gives surrogates the chance to actually present an intelligent case for Trump.

All that to say, Hillary needs someone who actually makes her ideological case stronger as well as someone who is not afraid to go on the attack in a substantial way. She also needs to find a way to at least partially make her campaign transcend the political and become a movement. The only candidate who does all this for her is Warren. The party's demographic advantage makes it hard for Hillary to lose regardless, but it would be nice to give the Republicans a thumping so that things can actually get done. And long-term, the only way Hillary wins re-election is if she can actually point to progress.

The one exciting thing about Kaine is he's fluent in Spanish, but otherwise I pretty much agree.