Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mary Fallin is by far the best choice Trump has at this time. She doesn't come with any significant baggage, has views acceptable to the GOP voter base, and will help win back at least a bit of the female vote. I doubt that could be said of anyone else willing to be his VP.

Fallin only won reelection 56-41, losing several counties. That's not good for a Republican in OKLAHOMA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It may be nothing, especially with TRUMP announcing he intends to win New York in the general, but his next campaign event is at TRUMP TOWER. The last time he did a campaign event there --- it was this famous night: http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/05/04/donald-trump-indiana-victory-entire-speech-sot.cnn. Something significant might happen.


https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Trump campaign people were previously saying that they wanted to wait until the convention to announce the running mate, because it would give people a reason to tune into the convention.  But since the campaign is so disorganized, they could easily change their minds on something like this. 

Both major conventions always get lots of viewership in the parts that actually matter: First Lady's Speech, VP Speech, Nominee Speech.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Article on the merits of (no joke) a Trump-Santorum ticket:

http://www.conservativehq.com/node/23331

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/julian-castro-im-not-being-vetted-for-vice-president/
Julian Castro says he isn't being vetted

Praise the lord! Castro is the biggest and most obvious pander ever heard of, a useless choice!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It might be best for Trump just to pick Gingrich now. Give people a new development in the campaign to take their mind off the Orlando Response and Judge Curiel. Plus you then have a month until the convention to promote the entire ticket to any wavering delegates, and Trump has someone agreeable that can hold additional events for him.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Castro: As I've said, the biggest and most obvious pander ever heard of. Clinton is not winning Texas under any circumstances, and Castro does not have the experience he needs to step in as president and has only gotten as far as he has in life because of affirmative action, which is really just a nice  way to say "racism against whites".

Warren: Just as socialist as Sanders is. Only refused to endorse Sanders because she would have been screamed at by the party if she did. IF WARREN IS PICKED, I'M VOTING JOHNSON.

Kaine: The only actual good choice among these three.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just had an idea: congressman Tom Reed of New York was an early Trump endorser but is also very popular with house leadership/establishment

His district is sort of competitive though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democrats in Office that are more conservative than Clinton: Joe Biden, Joe Manchin, John Bel Edwards, Dan Lipinski, Andrew Cuomo, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Ron Wyden, Joe Donnelly, Steve Bullock, Scott Peters, Claire McCaskill, Ann Kirkpatrick, Kyrsten Sinema, Henry Cuelllar, Gene Green, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Bob Casey. There are probably others. After November, we'll likely be able to add Pete Gallego to the list.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ The problem with that is if Warren loses the vice presidency in November, she would be in a position of awkwardly withdrawing that resignation, possibly having to run in the special election to keep her seat. What I've heard is more likely is that she would announce the resignation on the day after the presidential election; which puts the special election deadline at April 2017, which probably means the primary for it would be in February.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Read today that Kaine is very weak on the issue of choice, another negative for him. Bump him down the list.

He's basically identical to Biden: Against it in his personal life but isn't going to make it illegal for everyone else.

Kaine does support the existing ban on partial birth abortion and parental notification, but this isn't really much of a difference from Clinton. Take a look at this question from one of the town halls during the primaries:

BAIER:  I want to ask you about a question I asked Senator Sanders.  Do you think a child should have any legal rights or protections before its born?  Or do you think there should not be any restrictions on any abortions at any stage in a pregnancy?

CLINTON:  Well, again, let me put this in context, because it's an important question.  Right now the Supreme Court is considering a decision that would shut down a lot of the options for women in Texas, and there have been other legislatures that have taken similar steps to try to restrict a woman's right to obtain an abortion.

Under Roe v. Wade, which is rooted in the Constitution, women have this right to make this highly personal decision with their family in accordance with their faith, with their doctor.

It's not much of a right if it is totally limited and constrained.

So I think we have to continue to stand up for a woman's right to make these decisions, and to defend Planned Parenthood, which does an enormous amount of good work across our country.

BAIER:  Just to be clear, there's no -- without any exceptions?

CLINTON:  No -- I have been on record in favor of a late pregnancy regulation that would have exceptions for the life and health of the mother.

I object to the recent effort in Congress to pass a law saying after 20 weeks, you know, no such exceptions, because although these are rare, Bret, they sometimes arise in the most complex, difficult medical situation.

---------

She hasn't detailed what she means by "late pregnancy regulation" - is it the last 10 weeks, the last five??? - but it's clear she doesn't support allowing abortion throughout the entire pregnancy like some democrats do.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People that everyone will know? I think that rules out Scott Brown, Mary Fallin, or Bob Corker. My guess is Gingrich, Christie, Haley, and Carson make up the list.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cotton? He's not even on that long list of Sabato's.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait, so is Gingrich in or is Gingrich out? The story changes every few days.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/03/politics/cory-booker-hillary-clinton/

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Really hopes this means something. Booker would be an ideal pick - not a socialist, keeps up AA turnout, and likely keeps Hillary away from the D senate she can't be trusted with.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Presumably Greg Ballard or Susan Brooks would run unless Mitch Daniels found someone willing to run. Unless someone belonging to either the Lugar-Ballard faction or Daniels faction ran, I think Hill would beat the "emergency" nominee.

Gregg is the D governor candidate. Hill is preparing to lose the senate race to Young.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's down to Gingrich, Pence, and maybe Fallin. Unless he decides to surprise us and pick Scott Brown.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So Corker recommended Ivanka Trump as VP today.

And something completely anecdotal - a guy on another forum I frequent used to work on the Cruz campaign, and one of the people he got to know there now does polling for Trump. This Trump guy is apparently saying that they're going to be polling a Donald/Ivanka ticket tomorrow.

Is she even qualified for the VP position? She's 34.

Her birthday is October 30th, so yeah, she's qualified. Barely.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kaine seems too
-anti abortion
-pro gun

As I've explained, he is basically Biden - against abortion personally, but not politically. Yeah he supports the banning of partial birth abortion and parental notification requirements, but that doesn't really interfere with ticket chemistry since Hillary is in favor of a "late-term regulation".

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Really glad that Castro is out.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Politico Opinion Piece on Booker. Pretty critical of his time as Mayor.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/cory-booker-hillary-clinton-veep-newark-214030

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's my guess about Pence:

1) Someone conducted an internal poll for the gubernatorial campaign that showed troubling results. No major prognosticator has placed the race in "Toss-Up" status because there isn't much public polling (and the polling that exists suggests a Pence lead) and because nobody knows if voters will care about/even remember RFRA at the voting booth more than a year after the fact. But maybe private polls are showing a dire or potentially dire situation that the public sphere isn't aware of.

2) Someone (probably Holcomb) made someone in the Pence re-election campaign aware that they could shut down Gregg better. Completely quiet and off the record of course, but the message was delivered.

3) In comes Trump. Perhaps he isn't on a last resort "please say yes" visit/call, perhaps Gingrich, Corker, or Christie would say yes if asked, but he wants better ticket chemistry or current knowledge of Washington than he feels they offer. (Pence was in the house from 2001-2013) Or perhaps they've all said no, or they all have major skeletons we don't know about. Or some combination of all this. Take your pick. In any case, Trump tries to persuade Pence to consider VP. Pence probably says no a bunch of times, but Trump is persistent, and probably someone high up in the Pence campaign is sympathetic to the idea.

4) Essentially where we are now. Pence probably still hasn't made any final, irrevocable obligation. But Holcomb (or whoever the replacement is), his campaign, Trump, and possibly troubling polling numbers have put him in a place where he is likelier than not to agree to be Trump's VP.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Apparently Michael Flynn's registration as a Democrat might cause some ballot issues in Florida and West Virginia.

He'd likely change his registration to Republican.

Well according to Florida statute 99.021 2(b2), someone cannot qualify for the nomination of a party if that person has been registered to any other party a year beforehand.

You seriously think Florida's republican SOS is going to enforce that? In your dreams dude. And if you think "Dems will make him do it", think again. Taking Trump off the ballot will just give Johnson 20 to 30 percent of the vote in Florida because of people turning out for Rubio/the house who simply can't bring themselves to vote for a Dem for president. 20 to 30 percent of the vote in the third most populous state is a YUGE leg up to Johnson in getting to 5% nationally and securing the libertarian party federal funding in 2020. DEMS DON'T WANT THAT.


And as far as West Virginia goes, if Trump's not on the ballot, Johnson would actually win the state.

You really think West Virginia is going to vote for Clinton (or any Presidential D) under any circumstances when Obama, who she's running for a third term of, lost LITERALLY EVERY COUNTY, when Hillary is very anti-coal, when she lost LITERALLY EVERY COUNTY to a SOCIALIST, and when they gave a convicted prisoner over 40% of the vote in a low turnout primary against the incumbent president after he had already clinched renomination, in a time when the republican primaries were uncompetitive, in a contest that not a single media organization mentioned until after it happened?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IF the convention can tolerate Flynn or McCrystal, it could turn out really well. A republican (Trump) and a Democrat (Flynn or McCrystal) seeking to work together to fix the country could really seem appealing to the average swing voter. If I wasn't informed on Trump's political views that well, it would seem pretty appealing to me. (Of course, I'm informed, and I'm #NEVERTRUMP through and through.) Also, the military is much more popular than Trump, so picking someone from it might have the after effect of bumping up his favorability a few points, which would help. Ultimately I think fear of Hillary will keep up turnout among the republican base regardless of the VP Pick.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Politico is campaigning for Newt.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/the-case-for-newt-214045