Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough
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Author Topic: Predict the Democratic primary result in each NYC borough  (Read 1072 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: April 14, 2016, 05:28:02 PM »
I don't know if I'm crazy enough to try them myself, but do others have predictions?
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2016, 05:50:46 PM »
Quote from: King of Kensington on April 14, 2016, 05:28:02 PM
I don't know if I'm crazy enough to try them myself, but do others have predictions?

Bronx 75-25 Clinton
Manhattan 53-47 Clinton
Queens 58-42 Clinton
Brooklyn 65-35 Clinton
Staten Island 50-50
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White Trash
Southern Gothic
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM »
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2016, 05:58:46 PM »
Quote from: Southern Gothic on April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders

No way on the Bronx...I know that borough well and none of the demos favor Sanders. He'll get pasted with Hispanics, African-Americans and the Jewish population there. It'll be his worst county in the state and there's a chance he struggles for viability in Serrano's congressional district
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2016, 06:08:03 PM »
Just guessing here

Bronx 68-32 Clinton
Brooklyn 61-39 Clinton
Manhattan 54-46 Clinton
Queens 56-44 Clinton
Staten Island 52-48 Clinton
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White Trash
Southern Gothic
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2016, 06:09:11 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on April 14, 2016, 05:58:46 PM
Quote from: Southern Gothic on April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders

No way on the Bronx...I know that borough well and none of the demos favor Sanders. He'll get pasted with Hispanics, African-Americans and the Jewish population there. It'll be his worst county in the state and there's a chance he struggles for viability in Serrano's congressional district
[/quote

I forgot to look at demographics. I just glanced at past primaries Tongue
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2016, 06:11:10 PM »
Brooklyn 59-40 Clinton
Bronx 68-30 Clinton
Manhattan 53-45 Clinton
Queens 54-45 Clinton
Staten Island 50-48 Sanders
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2016, 06:15:21 PM »
Hillary's vote:

Bronx  73%
Brooklyn  65%
Manhattan  62%
Queens  62%
Staten Island  55%
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dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2016, 06:32:42 PM »
Quote from: King of Kensington on April 14, 2016, 06:15:21 PM
Hillary's vote:

Bronx  73%
Brooklyn  65%
Manhattan  62%
Queens  62%
Staten Island  55%

65% is a little high for Manhattan and 55% might be high for Staten
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2016, 06:36:41 PM »
Maybe.  But I don't think Manhattan is going to be the near-split that others are predicting.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2016, 06:46:45 PM »
Alabama-esque landslides for Clinton in The Bronx and Manhattan.

Slightly less lopsided landslides for Clinton in Queens and Brooklyn.

Sanders might win Staten Island.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2016, 06:52:12 PM »
Why not.

Bronx: 70-30 Clinton
Brooklyn: 61-39 Clinton
Manhattan: 63-37 Clinton
Queens: 58-42 Clinton
Staten Island: 54-46 Clinton
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Suburbia
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« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2016, 08:06:46 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on April 14, 2016, 06:08:03 PM
Just guessing here

Bronx 68-32 Clinton
Brooklyn 61-39 Clinton
Manhattan 54-46 Clinton
Queens 56-44 Clinton
Staten Island 52-48 Clinton
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The Free North
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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2016, 10:14:02 PM »
Bronx 60-40 Clinton
Manhattan 55-45 Clinton
Queens 60-40 Clinton
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Staten Island 60-40 Sanders


Would not surprise me if the LI boroughs are a bit closer...
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The Free North
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2016, 10:14:44 PM »
Quote from: dspNY on April 14, 2016, 05:58:46 PM
Quote from: Southern Gothic on April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders

No way on the Bronx...I know that borough well and none of the demos favor Sanders. He'll get pasted with Hispanics, African-Americans and the Jewish population there. It'll be his worst county in the state and there's a chance he struggles for viability in Serrano's congressional district

Sanders won Hispanics in Chicago.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2016, 01:03:51 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2016, 01:05:40 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »
Manhattan: Clinton 67%, Sanders 32%
The Bronx: Clinton 67%, Sanders 32%
Brooklyn: Clinton 59%, Sanders 40%
Queens: Clinton 61%, Sanders 38%
Staten Island: Clinton 56%, Sanders 43%

As we saw in the Boston metro area, affluent left-liberal voters will vote Clinton at rates approaching the vote share that she will receive among Latinos/African-Americans, which won't be nearly as high in New York as we think. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the UES/UWS give Hillary a higher proportion of the vote than, say, Harlem.

Brooklyn will be very interesting. My hunch is that the rapid gentrification of the borough will result in some strange results, particularly in quarters of the city that are just beginning to gentrify, where pioneer gentrifiers will give Sanders close to 90% of the vote and the original residents give him 30%. So there might be a few census tracks that appear to be entirely non-white that vote for Sanders for this reason.
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Progressive
jro660
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« Reply #16 on: April 15, 2016, 07:43:01 AM »
Bronx: HRC 71% - BS 28%
Manhattan: HRC 54% - BS 45%
Staten Island: HRC 56% - BS 43%
Brooklyn: HRC 59% - BS 40%
Queens: HRC 61% - BS 38%
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2016, 11:37:21 AM »
Why do people think Manhattan will be so close?

(Though I guess we'll see soon enough!)
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #18 on: April 16, 2016, 01:43:43 PM »
Queens is a bit of a stab in the dark because I'm not sure how Asians will vote.
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Hydera
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« Reply #19 on: April 16, 2016, 01:50:09 PM »
Bronx: 70%-75%+ Hillary
Manhattan: 65%-70%+ for Hillary
Brooklyn:60-65%+ For Hillary
Queens: 65%-70%+ For Hillary
Staten Island: 50-55% for Hillary
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: April 16, 2016, 01:56:07 PM »
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2016, 02:06:37 PM »
Bronx: Clinton 68-32
Manhattan: Clinton  58-42
Brooklyn:Clinton 67-34
Queens:Clinton 63-47
Staten Island:Sanders 52-48
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King of Kensington
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: April 16, 2016, 03:38:53 PM »

I just can't see Jerry Nadler's district voting for Sanders. 
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Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #23 on: April 16, 2016, 05:35:12 PM »
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on April 14, 2016, 10:14:44 PM
Quote from: dspNY on April 14, 2016, 05:58:46 PM
Quote from: Southern Gothic on April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders

No way on the Bronx...I know that borough well and none of the demos favor Sanders. He'll get pasted with Hispanics, African-Americans and the Jewish population there. It'll be his worst county in the state and there's a chance he struggles for viability in Serrano's congressional district

Sanders won Hispanics in Chicago.

Mostly because Rahm Emaunel is toxic, especially among Hispanics
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dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: April 16, 2016, 06:22:35 PM »
Quote from: Doctor Imperialism on April 16, 2016, 05:35:12 PM
Quote from: (CT) The Free North on April 14, 2016, 10:14:44 PM
Quote from: dspNY on April 14, 2016, 05:58:46 PM
Quote from: Southern Gothic on April 14, 2016, 05:56:56 PM
Brooklyn 60-40 Clinton
Bronx 65-35 Clinton
Manhattan 52-48 Clinton
Queens 55-45 Clinton
Staten Island 51-49 Sanders

No way on the Bronx...I know that borough well and none of the demos favor Sanders. He'll get pasted with Hispanics, African-Americans and the Jewish population there. It'll be his worst county in the state and there's a chance he struggles for viability in Serrano's congressional district

Sanders won Hispanics in Chicago.

Mostly because Rahm Emaunel is toxic, especially among Hispanics

Exactly...The PR and DR communities are far more favorable to Hillary
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