An early look at the May contests... (R)

[ElectionsGuy]

After a likely bad few weeks in April for Cruz, he may rebound in may just in time before the mighty important California race. Who do you think will win the sparse amount of races in May?

Indiana: Trump (but this is a toss-up)
Nebraska: Cruz
West Virginia: Trump
Oregon: Cruz
Washington: Cruz

[Maxwell]

Indiana: Tilt Cruz
Nebraska: Safe Cruz
West Virginia: Likely Trump
Oregon: Likely Cruz
Washington: Lean Cruz (more Kasich voters than Oregon is the only reason for the difference)

[windjammer]

Indiana: Tilt Cruz
Nebraska: Safe Cruz
West Virginia: Likely Trump
Oregon: Likely Cruz
Washington: Lean Cruz (more Kasich voters than Oregon is the only reason for the difference)

^^^^^^

[Xing]

Looking at where things stand, Trump is very likely to win West Virginia, while Cruz likely takes the rest, though Indiana could be close. I don't think there are enough Kasich voters in Washington for him to truly be competitive.

[standwrand]

Indiana: Likely Cruz
Nebraska: Safe Cruz
West Virginia: Likely Trump (but don't they directly elect delegates, so doesn't in not matter either way?)
Oregon: Safe Cruz
Washington: Safe Cruz

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cruz: Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Washington
Trump: West Virginia
Kasich: Nothing.

[Xing]

Why are Oregon and Washington safe for Cruz?  I would have thought these would be more like New England/Northeastern States that Trump seems to be winning.

Most Republicans live in the more rural Eastern parts of these states. Cruz will dominate these regions, so that even if Kasich (or, less likely, Trump) do better in the urban areas, it won't be enough.

[PeteB]

WV - Safe Trump
NE - Safe Cruz
WA, OR and IN - TCTC for now

[Mehmentum]

Nebraska- Likely Cruz
West Virginia- Safe Trump
Indiana: Tossup
Oregon: Lean Cruz
Washington: Lean Cruz

[Wisconsin+17]

Why is everyone saying that WV is safe trump? There's never been any polling done there.

[swf541]

Why is everyone saying that WV is safe trump? There's never been any polling done there.

Its safe Trump as is western maryland and most likely appalachian pennsylvania

nebraska likely cruz

other 3 too close to call/ not enough data

[ElectionsGuy]

Why is everyone saying that WV is safe trump? There's never been any polling done there.

One word: demographics. And the demographics are perfect for Trump.

Its a state in economic decline that is primarily blue-collar. It has the poorest white population of any state, and its not super religious nor is it a super conservative state. Also every single county that has voted in previous states that border West Virginia has voted for Trump and many by large margins.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Indiana: Likely Cruz
Nebraska: Safe Cruz
West Virginia: Likely Trump (but delegates are directly elected)
Oregon: Likely Cruz
Washington: Likely Cruz

[Wisconsin+17]

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35 percent Trump in KY doesn't strike me as a particularly solid base to suggest that he will carry WV.

[tmthforu94]

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35 percent Trump in KY doesn't strike me as a particularly solid base to suggest that he will carry WV.

Look at how eastern Kentucky, southeast Ohio and western Virginia voted. Trump will get over 50%.

[Gass3268]

Indiana: Toss Up (Tilt Trump)
Nebraska: Safe Cruz
West Virginia: Safe Trump
Oregon: Lean Cruz
Washington: Lean Cruz

[Senator-elect Spark]

IN- Tilt Cruz
NE- Safe Cruz
WV- Safe Trump
WA- Lean Cruz
OR- Likely Cruz

[ElectionsGuy]

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35 percent Trump in KY doesn't strike me as a particularly solid base to suggest that he will carry WV.

1. That was a caucus where Trump has routinely performed poorly and Cruz has performed better. West Virginia is a primary.
2. West Virginia is more like eastern Kentucky than the more urban areas of the state and western Kentucky. KY-05 (the Appalachian congressional district bordering West Virginia) was Trump's best in the state.

[Mr. Smith]

West Virginia - Safe Trump
Indiana - Tilt Trump
Nebraska - Safe Cruz
Oregon - Lean Cruz
Washington - Lean Cruz

[Wisconsin+17]

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Until we have a WV poll, the consensus is likely wrong.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

IN and WV for Trump. OR, WA and NE for Cruz.

Why are Oregon and Washington safe for Cruz?  I would have thought these would be more like New England/Northeastern States that Trump seems to be winning.

Pacific Northwest Republicans are nutjobs.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

IN and WV for Trump. OR, WA and NE for Cruz.

Why are Oregon and Washington safe for Cruz?  I would have thought these would be more like New England/Northeastern States that Trump seems to be winning.

Pacific Northwest Republicans are nutjobs.

The Pacific Northwest is really two regions: Cascadia, and Western Idaho.

[President Johnson]

Rafael will take Indiana and Nebraska. TRUMP will win the rest.

Why does everybody think Cruz has chance in Washington and Oregon?

West Virgina is safe TRUMP because there are a lot of poor white people. They know that TRUMP is most likely to bring them jobs.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Cruz: everything not West Virginia
Trump: West Virginia (barely)

[Xing]

Why does everybody think Cruz has chance in Washington and Oregon?

Because his opponent is Trump, who has virtually no chance of winning those states. Eastern WA/OR (majority of GOP voters) is similar to Idaho and Utah, states where Cruz crushed Trump. Western WA/OR is largely Democratic, and the few Republican voters would be as likely to back Kasich as Trump.