Predict Maryland (R)

[dax00]

The latest Monmouth Poll has Trump 47, Kasich 27, Cruz 19 with a MoE of 5.7

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

CD3 and CD4, if any.  Maybe CD5, where all the government workers who can't afford to live anywhere near the District live.  All three converge on the College Park area.

[ElectionsGuy]

It's probably a Trump sweep, but I would think the 8th (primarily Montgomery County) should be fertile Kasich territory. But then again, there's going to be disproportionately less votes there than in the rural parts of the district in a Republican Primary.

[Gass3268]

It's probably a Trump sweep, but I would think the 8th (primarily Montgomery County) should be fertile Kasich territory. But then again, there's going to be disproportionately less votes there than in the rural parts of the district in a Republican Primary.

Yeah, the Democratic gerrymander really helps out Trump here.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder if Cruz could win the Eastern Shore GOP district?

[Fargobison]

Marist had this regional breakdown....



Anything you could predict from it or does gerrymandering make it impossible?

[swf541]

I wonder if Cruz could win the Eastern Shore GOP district?

That was Trump's best area in the poll, he broke 50% in the eastern shore.  The eastern shore and western maryland are great Trump areas.

[Gass3268]

I wonder if Cruz could win the Eastern Shore GOP district?

That was Trump's best area in the poll, he broke 50% in the eastern shore.  The eastern shore and western maryland are great Trump areas.

Yeah, 1 & 6 are probably close to Trump locks. 8 is probably pretty good for him as well considering there is so much rural northern Maryland in that district. The rest should be interesting, but I don't know where I would say Cruz or Kasich is favored.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Marist had this regional breakdown....



Anything you could predict from it or does gerrymandering make it impossible?

Trump sweep.  All of Trump's weakest areas are split up through gerrymandering.

[Young Conservative]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

[Gass3268]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

He's currently a head in the polling average.

[Holmes]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

DC burbs (Prince George, Montgomery, Anne Arundel). Cruz was a non-entity in NoVA and Kasich came really close to winning the DC caucus. Not sure how much weight the DC burbs have in a Maryland GOP primary though.

[Senator-elect Spark]

CD3, CD4, CD5, CD8

[Kingpoleon]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

Most polls show Kasich over performing his national numbers by 5-10, while Cruz underperforms by 5-10. More campaigning will obviously make the GOP that nominated Hogan last time like Kasich better there.

I think Kasich wins the seventh and maybe the eighth.

[Gass3268]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

Most polls show Kasich over performing his national numbers by 5-10, while Cruz underperforms by 5-10. More campaigning will obviously make the GOP that nominated Hogan last time like Kasich better there.

I think Kasich wins the seventh and maybe the eighth.

Carroll County, which is going to be most of the registered R's in MD-07, should be very Trumpy.  I was thinking that Kasich has the best chance in MD-04, because it hugs DC and the areas of Anne Arundel it takes in are pretty upscale and business conservative oriented.  I agree with you that MD-08 should be his next best shot, if the Frederick/Carroll portion doesn't put Trump over the line, but there are still more registered R's in Montgomery County than in Baltimore City.  I think Cruz has his best chance in MD-01, but that's still quite unlikely.

Carroll County is split between MD-01 and MD-08. MD-07 is most of Baltimore City, majority of Baltimore County, and northern Howard County.

[Gass3268]

Funny thing about Maryland is they could have drawn a cleaner map that would have kept most of the Eastern Shore intact and win all 8 seats, but each representative had different demands that they wanted for their turf that made it impossible.

[Xing]

Only CDs 3 and 4 seem possible to me.

[Young Conservative]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

Most polls show Kasich over performing his national numbers by 5-10, while Cruz underperforms by 5-10. More campaigning will obviously make the GOP that nominated Hogan last time like Kasich better there.

I think Kasich wins the seventh and maybe the eighth.

Actually Cruz has outperformed polling in almost every single state so try again. He outperformed polling in Wisconsin by about 8, which is about the average he's outperformed by. Try again because that was blatantly false when Kasich underperformed in Wisconsin and almost every other state. Base it on polling please. Besides, Kasich cant even come close to Cruz or Trump's number of delegates he should drop.

[swf541]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

Most polls show Kasich over performing his national numbers by 5-10, while Cruz underperforms by 5-10. More campaigning will obviously make the GOP that nominated Hogan last time like Kasich better there.

I think Kasich wins the seventh and maybe the eighth.

Actually Cruz has outperformed polling in almost every single state so try again. He outperformed polling in Wisconsin by about 8, which is about the average he's outperformed by. Try again because that was blatantly false when Kasich underperformed in Wisconsin and almost every other state. Base it on polling please. Besides, Kasich cant even come close to Cruz or Trump's number of delegates he should drop.

Maryland is a bad fit for Cruz along wtih most of the mid atlantic and the northeast, wasnt there some talk of social cohesiveness or something tied to Cruz's support?

[Wisconsin+17]

Wow. So we can't vote for Cruz?

[dax00]

Wow. So we can't vote for Cruz?

I didn't think anyone would even consider Cruz, but by all means answer the question as if it read Kasich/Cruz. I usually rig up polls to be very inclusive within reason.

So far, the poll average has Trump losing 1 CD, or winning 35/38 delegates in MD.