What would the Dem primary look like now if E. Warren had run instead of Bernie?
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  What would the Dem primary look like now if E. Warren had run instead of Bernie?
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Author Topic: What would the Dem primary look like now if E. Warren had run instead of Bernie?  (Read 545 times)
JRP1994
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« on: April 15, 2016, 10:47:27 AM »

Thoughts?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2016, 11:04:07 AM »

She'd be winning easily.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2016, 11:08:14 AM »

I genuinely believe this race would be a tossup at this point.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2016, 11:08:27 AM »

She would have done much better in the south due to neutralization of the gender factor, and would have won IL/MO/MA in addition to all the states Bernie carried except maybe WY. That would be way more than enough to make up for smaller margins in caucus states. She'd be favored in PA, CT, RI and have a shot at DE. She'd be well positioned in CA too.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2016, 11:14:22 AM »

Depends on whether the party would still be hellbent on making Clinton the nominee.
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2016, 11:23:01 AM »

She would have done much better in the south due to neutralization of the gender factor,

The South is more likely to vote for women?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2016, 11:38:14 AM »

She would have done much better in the south due to neutralization of the gender factor

lolno

She won white women by a large margin down there, a lot of which likely had to do with her gender and her gender alone.
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« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2016, 11:38:26 AM »

She would have done much worse than Sanders.

This. Like it or not, a lot of Sanders' support is coming from men who won't vote for a woman.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2016, 11:39:07 AM »

She would have done much worse than Sanders.

This. Like it or not, a lot of Sanders' support is coming from men who won't vote for a woman.

I wasn't aware those sorts of people existed in the Democratic party.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2016, 12:09:11 PM »

Almost exactly the same as now - the Sandernistas made the once Kucinich-like Bernie into some God of the left, and I have no doubt they would have done the same with Warren. But that won't sway or deter anyone extra.

Now what may be slightly different is how the campaigns would have chosen to use their resources, but I don't know what kind of strategy Warren would have put up, or whether she would save more for the general, or go all-in in the primary as Bernie has done.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2016, 12:12:36 PM »

She'd be doing much worse with white working class voters, worse with Latinos, somewhat worse with younger voters, about the same with blacks, but there'd be less of a gender gap. She'd also probably have dropped out by now, because she's not as much of a selfish narcissist as Bernie.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2016, 12:26:24 PM »


Huh? Clinton's name Hillary, not Bernie.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2016, 02:52:18 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2016, 03:05:03 PM by Famous Mortimer »

She would have won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada and thus won the nomination. Clinton would still have won SC and the South though, since those states were voting on name recognition. Warren's totals in hipster states like Minnesota and Washington might not have been as dramatic as Sanders' but she would have won Ohio, Missouri, obviously Massachusetts, and Illinois. Hillary would probably still win Virginia because of the wonk vote and possibly even Texas, but it wouldn't be enough. This thing would be over by now.
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2016, 02:58:50 PM »

Hillary's margin with women certainly carried her over the finish line in IA & NV, if there was no gender gap Warren would've all three first easily. Winning the first the three primaries would've been a huge boon for Warren definitely going into Super Tuesday. I don't think she would've written off the South, while not winning the states the margins would likely be smaller and more delegates for her. I think Warren would've crushed Hillary throughout the Midwest and NE, eliminating Hillary's Southern advantage.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2016, 03:41:00 PM »

Some of you guys are far too simplistic. Yes, Warren would've done better with women. She might have done slightly better among minorities. But would she have done as well as Sanders with men and younger voters? I highly doubt it.
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henster
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« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2016, 03:49:03 PM »

Some of you guys are far too simplistic. Yes, Warren would've done better with women. She might have done slightly better among minorities. But would she have done as well as Sanders with men and younger voters? I highly doubt it.

What Sanders young or male voter would be supporting Hillary over Warren? Wasn't Warren the sponsor of the student loan refinancing bill that so many Democrats adopted, why wouldn't she garner the same amount of support as Sanders?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: April 15, 2016, 03:52:30 PM »

Some of you guys are far too simplistic. Yes, Warren would've done better with women. She might have done slightly better among minorities. But would she have done as well as Sanders with men and younger voters? I highly doubt it.

What Sanders young or male voter would be supporting Hillary over Warren? Wasn't Warren the sponsor of the student loan refinancing bill that so many Democrats adopted, why wouldn't she garner the same amount of support as Sanders?

It's not that I think a large segment of young voters would be supporting Hillary over Warren that are now supporting Bernie, just that a large segment wouldn't care.

As for men, just like Hillary's gender helps her among women, Bernie's gender helps him among men.
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henster
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« Reply #17 on: April 15, 2016, 03:56:11 PM »


I don't think Hillary's support with seniors would hold up against Warren either, the theory has been older women are supporting her in strong #'s because they want to see a women President before they die.
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Blue3
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« Reply #18 on: April 15, 2016, 04:19:16 PM »

She would have done much worse than Sanders.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #19 on: April 15, 2016, 04:31:00 PM »

College aged people vote Republican a whole lot more in the primaries, maybe giving Kasich a victory or super close second in NH. I don't think most college aged people want to vote for someone who sounds like and was a college professor.
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