Austrian Presidential Election - Official Prediction Thread

[Tender Branson]

Just one week to go !

Post your predictions for the 1st round here (also the runoff, if you like).

My prediction:

24.7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
21.2% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
18.1% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
17.9% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
16.3% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)
  1.8% Richard Lugner (Indy)

Turnout: 72.3%

...

Runoff between Hofer and Van der Bellen.

Will post that prediction later.

[Vega]

Turnbull made it pretty clear he wasn't going to fight for a Republic while in government, so this is a little speculative, no?

[Tender Branson]

Turnbull made it pretty clear he wasn't going to fight for a Republic while in government, so this is a little speculative, no?

[Omega21]

Just one week to go !

Post your predictions for the 1st round here (also the runoff, if you like).

My prediction:

24.7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
21.2% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
18.1% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
17.9% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
16.3% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)
  1.8% Richard Lugner (Indy)

Turnout: 72.3%

...

Runoff between Hofer and Van der Bellen.

Will post that prediction later.

Such high expectations for Hofer?

Do you think it will be a tigh runoff or will Vdb take it because the majority of Greens and the SPO will  go to him?

[Tender Branson]

Just one week to go !

Post your predictions for the 1st round here (also the runoff, if you like).

My prediction:

24.7% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
21.2% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
18.1% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
17.9% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
16.3% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)
 1.8% Richard Lugner (Indy)

Turnout: 72.3%

...

Runoff between Hofer and Van der Bellen.

Will post that prediction later.

Such high expectations for Hofer?

Do you think it will be a tigh runoff or will Vdb take it because the majority of Greens and the SPO will  go to him?

Yes, I expect a strong result for Hofer in round 1.

VdB and Griss should do worse than what the polls say right now - mostly because I think VdB is overpolling a bit (as the Greens usually do, or did). And Griss has no party machine behind her. Which is why I also predict that Hundstorfer and Khol will do a little better than what the polls show. The ÖVP and SPÖ party machines in the rural areas (ÖVP) and cities (SPÖ) are going to prevent an epic collapse for their candidates.

The runoff between Hofer and VdB would be brutal and hard to predict. Common sense would suggest that VdB beats Hofer easily, but according to polls it's close. Also, Austria is currently 60-40 or even more to the right. That makes it easier for Hofer to win, because many center-right voters would never vote for a Green and his open-door policies.

The mayoral election in Hohenems not long ago might serve as an example of how such a runoff could play out nationally:

Slightly before Christmas, the ÖVP-candidate lost to the FPÖ-candidate in a stunning upset - despite SPÖ/Greens/NEOS urging their voters to vote for the ÖVP-guy.

But is Hohenems comparable with Austria as a whole ?

[jaichind]

Hofer (FPÖ)                         30 
Van der Bellen (Greens)       28
Griss (Indy)                         17
Hundstorfer (SPÖ)               14
Khol (ÖVP)                          10
Lugner (Indy)                       1

Polarization toward the top two candidates.  ÖVP voter tactical voting for Griss and FPÖ  and SPÖ voter tactical voting for Greens.  My rule of thumb is always bet on FPÖ doing better than their polling unless the populist Right vote is split between two viable candidates/parties.

[Bojicat]

As of late in the evening today, 4/21/16, and 2 half days from now, as it stands now, I suspect that voters in Austria will vote along these lines:

23.5% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)       
22.6% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)
18.1% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
15.4% Irmgard Griss (Indy)                       
14.3% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)                         
6.1%   Richard Lugner (Indy)                     

Though VDB may come out on top in the run-off, he will lose to Hofer in the general. The centre will rally behind Hundstorfer, placing him third in the run-off. Griss is all puff and smoke; no organization, no constituency to speak of. She'll place fourth. Khol is a blur, as exciting as rice pudding. Lugner's a joke candidate, but I wager about 6% of the population enjoy a good joke.
 
Voting for the President of Austria is a protest vote. He has no real powers. People are angry about immigration. The right and the centre will run to Hofer to register this anger, in the end. A left-wing green(VDB) has no chance in this environment.

[SNJ1985]

Hofer (FPÖ): 24%
Van der Bellen (Greens): 22%
Griss (Independent): 19%
Hundstorfer (SPÖ): 17%
Khol (ÖVP): 15%
Lugner (Independent): 3%

[Tender Branson]

Still some time left for your predictions ...

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for Zell am See (city):

27% Hofer (FPÖ)
20% Griss (Indy)
20% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
18% VdB (Greens)
13% Khol (ÖVP)
  2% Lugner (Indy)

... and Zell am See (district):

27% Hofer (FPÖ)
21% Griss (Indy)
18% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
17% VdB (Greens)
15% Khol (ÖVP)
  2% Lugner (Indy)

... and Salzburg (state):

25% Hofer (FPÖ)
21% VdB (Greens)
20% Griss (Indy)
18% Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
14% Khol (ÖVP)
  2% Lugner (Indy)

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for Vienna:

28% VdB
22% Hofer
21% Griss
19% Hundstorfer
  7% Khol
  3% Lugner

[Clyde1998]

My prediction:
Van der Bellen (Greens): 25%
Hofer (FPÖ): 24%
Griss (Independent): 22%
Hundstorfer (SPÖ): 14%
Khol (ÖVP): 10%
Lugner (Independent): 5%