What percentage of the Jewish vote with Bernie get in NY?

[King of Kensington]

The Reform movement is by far the dominant stream of Judaism outside the New York area, and in the Jewish suburbs of Cleveland, Detroit and Boston - as well as in south Florida - Hillary won easily.

They're generally pretty "establishment." 

But yes I would agree there's more Sanders supporters among Reform than Conservative and Orthodox Jews but less than the unaffiliated and some of the smaller streams.

It's important to note that Reform just isn't that dominant in New York.  Even in a place like Scarsdale I would suspect that the Jewish population is more observant (more Conservative, Modern Orthodox and the like) than say Chicago's North Shore.

[Figueira]

I think Sanders would do comparatively well among people who call themselves Jewish but aren't especially involved in the community, but I'm not sure how big that group is.

[Thunderbird is the word]

I have anecdotely noticed a subset of younger religious Jews who tend to also be politically progressive and supportive of Palestinian rights. Don't know how significant that is but I don't think that more religious automatically translates into more politically conservative in the Jewish community since if you are social justice oriented and pay attention to Jewish issues as regards Palestine you probably aren't going to take the hardline Zionist view. At the same time a lot of reform or secular Jews think that slavish support for Israel is the highest form of Judaism.

[Bull Moose Base]

The majority of young Jews are Orthodox.

No way is this the case.

[King of Kensington]

I have anecdotely noticed a subset of younger religious Jews who tend to also be politically progressive and supportive of Palestinian rights. Don't know how significant that is but I don't think that more religious automatically translates into more politically conservative in the Jewish community since if you are social justice oriented and pay attention to Jewish issues as regards Palestine you probably aren't going to take the hardline Zionist view. At the same time a lot of reform or secular Jews think that slavish support for Israel is the highest form of Judaism.

What do you mean by "religious Jews"? 

It's not automatic but it's certainly true that overall religious Jews have more hard-line Zionist views.

Younger non-Orthodox Jews are more liberal than older generations, but this is counterbalanced by the larger share of the younger population that is Orthodox.

Of course there are exceptions.  Peter Beinart belongs to an Orthodox synagogue in Manhattan, although he doesn't say he is Orthodox himself. 

[Thunderbird is the word]

I have anecdotely noticed a subset of younger religious Jews who tend to also be politically progressive and supportive of Palestinian rights. Don't know how significant that is but I don't think that more religious automatically translates into more politically conservative in the Jewish community since if you are social justice oriented and pay attention to Jewish issues as regards Palestine you probably aren't going to take the hardline Zionist view. At the same time a lot of reform or secular Jews think that slavish support for Israel is the highest form of Judaism.

What do you mean by "religious Jews"? 

It's not automatic but it's certainly true that overall religious Jews have more hard-line Zionist views.

Younger non-Orthodox Jews are more liberal than older generations, but this is counterbalanced by the larger share of the younger population that is Orthodox.

Of course there are exceptions.  Peter Beinart belongs to an Orthodox synagogue in Manhattan, although he doesn't say he is Orthodox himself. 

The people I was thinking of I think tended to be conservative (though obviously not politically) moreso then orthodox.

[Suburbia]

Orthodox Jews are overwhelmingly registered as Democrats. Clinton will win them with a ridiculous margin.

So they're basically modern-day "Dixiecrats."

I guess that explains Dov Hikind - whose politics are basically those of Meir Kahane and the JDL.

They're tough. I know some of them. They live in Boro Park, Midwood, etc.

[Shadows]

30-40% depending on how many young, unorthodox people vote n stuff.

Some polls are giving him around 35-40%, but I think some people won't like his comments in the debate & it will fall a bit.

I think he will sweep the Muslim vote though & will get 70-80% of the Muslim votes (He got 60% in Dearbon & close to 70% of the Muslim vote in Wisconsin) & with his very bold stand, I think he will do better than that.

[King of Kensington]

I'm surprised they were able to isolate the Muslim vote in Wisconsin.

[Ebsy]

I'm surprised they were able to isolate the Muslim vote in Wisconsin.

I for one haven't seen any data on the Muslim vote in Wisconsin.

[Gass3268]

The Association of Religion Data Archives estimates that Wisconsin had 14,744 Muslims in 2010, compared to 120,351 in Michigan.

[Progressive]

33%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There isn't really a single 'Jewish Vote' in the sense that people often talk about and even if there was it would be very hard to measure it, particularly in a primary. And contrary to what is often then vaguely asserted, foreign policy is hardly the main political concern of most American Jews. Clinton's likely strong showing will have more to do with general socioeconomic tendencies (i.e. along with the young, Sanders has polled best - and very consistently - amongst whites with manual occupations: well in New York State these people tend not to be concentrated particularly in or around The Great City Babylon) and the fact that Clinton has at least a few links with some important people in the various Hasidic communities.

Anyway the Hasidim are overwhelmingly D registered because in order to have a say in local politics in NYC (and everywhere you go they care far more about local politics than national) you have to vote in the D primary. In recent Presidential elections they have voted overwhelmingly R, but this isn't really contradictory from their perspective.

[King of Kensington]

I would agree with that.  American Jews are center-left Clinton/Obama Democrats rather than left-populists.  They're very liberal on social issues and moderately liberal on economic issues.  So they're not "naturally" attracted to Sanders.

The question is not whether Sanders will win or lose the so-called "Jewish vote", but whether he passes a certain pro-Israel "litmus test" which could make a difference of maybe 10 points.

[Famous Mortimer]

In this thread: People totally forgetting that Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox are two different things.

[Torie]

I think less than 40%% (maybe closer to the low 30's). My interactions with secular liberal Jews (and that includes the relative few in Columbia County, because I interact with a fair number of Jews here, gay and otherwise) suggests consideration skepticism of Bernie. As Fran Leibowitz observed when I and Dan saw her act down in Bard College last week, Bernie would be great if there were no other counties on this planet. I knew what she meant from her perspective. And a bunch of more mainstream secular liberal Jews are well educated, and people of affairs, and know Bernie's economic perceptions are just hot air, and take comfort that no matter what, won't be enacted into law.

[King of Kensington]

In this thread: People totally forgetting that Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox are two different things.

Separating out the Orthodox (whether Modern, yeshivish or Hasidic) in order to analyze the voting behavior of the non-Orthodox majority does not mean one is saying all the Orthodox subgroups are the same.

[Classic Conservative]

Around 30% or so. 

One community I'd be particularly interested in is Kiryas Joel, both the youngest and most impoverished community in the country, as well as overwhelmingly Hasidic Jewish with 89% of citizens speaking Yiddish at home and an additional 2% speaking Hebrew.

Hasidim endorsed Hillary

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/210931#.VxLE_d-rS1s

No Hasidim didn't endorse Hillary, two factions of Satmar did. Bobov, Lubavitch, Bostoner, Munkacs, Belz, Breslov, Ger, Skver, Vizhnitz and the rest have not. Also the two Satmar communities that endorsed Hillary, their rebbes have always been strong supporters of Democrats.

[Eraserhead]

Bernie might actually get a higher % of the black vote in NY. Heh.

[King of Kensington]

Bernie might actually get a higher % of the black vote in NY. Heh.

I guess we'll see soon enough.

[King of Kensington]

...or not.  I haven't seen any hard numbers.

This article says Bernie won 39% of the Orthodox Jewish vote which I really, really doubt.

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/u-s-election-2016/1.715455