What percentage of the Jewish vote with Bernie get in NY?

[King of Kensington]

Around 30% or so. 

[King of Kensington]

I think he'll do a lot better than 25%, especially amongst younger Jews who are a LOT less Zionist and more activist for Palestinian rights than the older generation, I'd make a high ball estimate of 45%

The "break with Israel" demographic represents a much smaller percentage of the Jewish population in NY and FL than it does in say, New England and out west.

[King of Kensington]

How do the Orthodox split in terms of registration?

[King of Kensington]

According to this report (conducted by a liberal organization), Orthodox Jews went 86% for Romney.

http://circle.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/WC-Post-election-Report-With-Graphics_AbramsEdit2-2.pdf

Which matches up with results in Orthodox enclaves.

[King of Kensington]

They likely had a tiny sample of Orthodox Jews.

[King of Kensington]

Bernie will do well with Reform Jews, Clinton will do better with Orthodox Jews, although I'm living evidence that younger Jews are actually more secular and much more likely to be Reform than Orthodox. I'm gonna say he'll get 35-40%.

Reform Jews strike me as a much more Hillary than Bernie demographic.  Bernie would do better among the completely unaffiliated, secular humanists, Reconstructionist etc.

[King of Kensington]

Orthodox Jews are overwhelmingly registered as Democrats. Clinton will win them with a ridiculous margin.

So they're basically modern-day "Dixiecrats."

I guess that explains Dov Hikind - whose politics are basically those of Meir Kahane and the JDL.

[King of Kensington]

The Reform movement is by far the dominant stream of Judaism outside the New York area, and in the Jewish suburbs of Cleveland, Detroit and Boston - as well as in south Florida - Hillary won easily.

They're generally pretty "establishment." 

But yes I would agree there's more Sanders supporters among Reform than Conservative and Orthodox Jews but less than the unaffiliated and some of the smaller streams.

It's important to note that Reform just isn't that dominant in New York.  Even in a place like Scarsdale I would suspect that the Jewish population is more observant (more Conservative, Modern Orthodox and the like) than say Chicago's North Shore.

[King of Kensington]

I have anecdotely noticed a subset of younger religious Jews who tend to also be politically progressive and supportive of Palestinian rights. Don't know how significant that is but I don't think that more religious automatically translates into more politically conservative in the Jewish community since if you are social justice oriented and pay attention to Jewish issues as regards Palestine you probably aren't going to take the hardline Zionist view. At the same time a lot of reform or secular Jews think that slavish support for Israel is the highest form of Judaism.

What do you mean by "religious Jews"? 

It's not automatic but it's certainly true that overall religious Jews have more hard-line Zionist views.

Younger non-Orthodox Jews are more liberal than older generations, but this is counterbalanced by the larger share of the younger population that is Orthodox.

Of course there are exceptions.  Peter Beinart belongs to an Orthodox synagogue in Manhattan, although he doesn't say he is Orthodox himself. 

[King of Kensington]

I'm surprised they were able to isolate the Muslim vote in Wisconsin.

[King of Kensington]

I would agree with that.  American Jews are center-left Clinton/Obama Democrats rather than left-populists.  They're very liberal on social issues and moderately liberal on economic issues.  So they're not "naturally" attracted to Sanders.

The question is not whether Sanders will win or lose the so-called "Jewish vote", but whether he passes a certain pro-Israel "litmus test" which could make a difference of maybe 10 points.

[King of Kensington]

In this thread: People totally forgetting that Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox are two different things.

Separating out the Orthodox (whether Modern, yeshivish or Hasidic) in order to analyze the voting behavior of the non-Orthodox majority does not mean one is saying all the Orthodox subgroups are the same.

[King of Kensington]

Bernie might actually get a higher % of the black vote in NY. Heh.

I guess we'll see soon enough.

[King of Kensington]

...or not.  I haven't seen any hard numbers.

This article says Bernie won 39% of the Orthodox Jewish vote which I really, really doubt.

http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/u-s-election-2016/1.715455