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Keystone Phil
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« on: June 07, 2005, 05:23:03 pm »
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2002 was the Year of the Georgia Republican (GOP wins Governorship, U.S. Senate seat, GOP takeover of State Legislature)

2004 was the Year of the Colorado Democrat (Dems pickup Senate seat, House seat, win control of State Legislature)

So who will win the state party of the year award in 2006? I think the MN GOP is a strong candidate for the honor.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2005, 05:49:08 pm by Keystone Phil »Logged

Jim Valvano
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2005, 05:35:09 pm »
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Not Minnesota. Its big year was 2002 as well. That was the year the Republicans won the governorship, a senate seat, and a house seat. I don't think they'll get much more than that in 2006

And the Montana Democrat is another candidate for the 2004 election (governor and state legislature) although Colorado was probably better
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2005, 05:37:15 pm »
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Not Minnesota. Its big year was 2002 as well. That was the year the Republicans won the governorship, a senate seat, and a house seat. I don't think they'll get much more than that in 2006

And the Montana Democrat is another candidate for the 2004 election (governor and state legislature) although Colorado was probably better

I agree that the Montana Democrat was big in 2004 also but Colorado does beat them.

As for MN, the GOP has a chance at another Senate seat pickup and if they defend their Governor and State Legislature, MN will be run by the Republican Party.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2005, 05:46:02 pm »
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As for MN, the GOP has a chance at another Senate seat pickup and if they defend their Governor and State Legislature, MN will be run by the Republican Party.

I just looked up the facts on the MN Legislature. Looks like the GOP controls the House but not the Senate. I wonder if they could win the Senate in 2006. If they can, they're likely to be the party of the year in my book.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2005, 05:48:36 pm »
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Jesus, the "George Republican" thing had me confused for a minute. Tongue

I agree with you on the MN GOP thing, but don't rule out PA Democrats! LOL!111
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2005, 05:50:32 pm »
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Jesus, the "George Republican" thing had me confused for a minute. Tongue

I agree with you on the MN GOP thing, but don't rule out PA Democrats! LOL!111


Yeah, sorry. That was supposed to be Georgia Republicans. It's corrected.  Smiley

In all seriousness about the PA Dems, the only thing they'll be able to brag about in 2006 is Casey and Lois Murphy. Casey is more likely to win and Murphy will probably fall to Gerlach again so they don't have much.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2005, 06:38:06 pm »
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I think Democrats are going to control virtually all of Pennsylvania within a decade or two, especially if they move in a more socially conservative direction, but the extraordinarly diverse state will switch positions as the parties do -- like usual.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2005, 06:42:24 pm »
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I think Democrats are going to control virtually all of Pennsylvania within a decade or two, especially if they move in a more socially conservative direction, but the extraordinarly diverse state will switch positions as the parties do -- like usual.

PA Dems are too far behind to control all of the state within ten years.
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Jake
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2005, 07:15:02 pm »
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PA Democrats have a shot if they can knock off Santorum and win one or although unlikely more than one house seat.

OH Democrats if they can somehow knock off DeWine and win the Governorship.

MN Republicans for your reasons

NY Democrats with the Governorship and the State Senate

All possibilities though no state has a vulnerable Governor and Senator from one party like Georgia in 2002.
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2005, 07:19:09 pm »
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In Georgia in 2002, the GOP only won the State Senate because 4 Democrats switched parties after the election.  So the GOP did not win due to electoral result.  And the Democrats maintained the State House until 2004 (and even then they only lost it because they were so stupid as to approve a GOP plan for redistricting the districts).
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2005, 07:19:32 pm »
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Dayton not running for re-election actually hurts the GOP's chances of pickking up any real ground in MN
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2005, 07:20:09 pm »
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Dayton not running for re-election actually hurts the GOP's chances of pickking up any real ground in MN

Doesn't mean the GOP can't pick it up.
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2005, 07:20:38 pm »
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In Georgia in 2002, the GOP only won the State Senate because 4 Democrats switched parties after the election. So the GOP did not win due to electoral result. And the Democrats maintained the State House until 2004 (and even then they only lost it because they were so stupid as to approve a GOP plan for redistricting the districts).

Georgia Democrats get the award for stupidity. Hell, they thought Zell Miller with his 96 ACU rating was a Democrat.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2005, 07:20:57 pm »
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In Georgia in 2002, the GOP only won the State Senate because 4 Democrats switched parties after the election. So the GOP did not win due to electoral result. And the Democrats maintained the State House until 2004 (and even then they only lost it because they were so stupid as to approve a GOP plan for redistricting the districts).

I did not know about the State House and forgot about the State Senate situation. Thanks for the correction.
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Smash255
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2005, 07:24:28 pm »
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Dayton not running for re-election actually hurts the GOP's chances of pickking up any real ground in MN

Doesn't mean the GOP can't pick it up.

Granted, but if Dayton ran, they would probably have a better chance for the pickup.  Right now I would say MN is lean Dem, if Dayton was running I would say would be slight lean GOP
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King
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2005, 08:34:10 pm »
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New York or Florida will likely go through "the change."
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2005, 08:37:54 pm »
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New York or Florida will likely go through "the change."

How will Florida? The Republicans look pretty strong when it comes to the Governor race and might pick up Nelson's Senate seat.
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King
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2005, 09:21:49 pm »
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New York or Florida will likely go through "the change."

How will Florida? The Republicans look pretty strong when it comes to the Governor race and might pick up Nelson's Senate seat.

I just have this feeling that we will just screw up.
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A18
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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2005, 09:25:05 pm »
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The Senate seat most likely stays in Dem hands in Florida, thanks to our terrible candidate. The governorship may also go Dem.

Legislature isn't changing.
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nclib
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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2005, 10:33:11 pm »
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And the Montana Democrat is another candidate for the 2004 election (governor and state legislature) although Colorado was probably better

It is interesting to note that Colorado and Montana were among Kerry's biggest swings.
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2005, 10:33:46 pm »
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In Georgia in 2002, the GOP only won the State Senate because 4 Democrats switched parties after the election.  So the GOP did not win due to electoral result.  And the Democrats maintained the State House until 2004 (and even then they only lost it because they were so stupid as to approve a GOP plan for redistricting the districts).

I did not know about the State House and forgot about the State Senate situation. Thanks for the correction.

Sure, Phil.  Oh, and I wasn't trying to contradict you, though, but just point out something that rarely appears in writeups of the current political climate in GA.
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2005, 08:51:18 am »
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but just point out something that rarely appears in writeups of the current political climate in GA.

True enough. Mainly 'cos it doesn't gel at all with most writeups of the political climate in Georgia...
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socaldem
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« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2005, 07:57:55 pm »
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I think its a good idea to think on the state level of winning state parties. I think a few more winners/losers can be added to the list:

2004:

Big Winners: CO Dems
MT Dems
IN GOP- Win Gov chair, pick-up CD9, enlarge majorities in CDs 2 and 8, and take back state legislature
2002-2003


MO GOP-Win gov race and accumulate huge state house majorities, in addition to their senate and Prez wins
IL Dems- OBAMA, congressional victories
LA Dems</b>: Keep vulnerable senate seat, pick-up gov chair, and the next year, the gov chair. Of course, this sweep was balanced out by the party switch of Alexander and the loss of a senate seat and LA-07 in '04...but for '02-'03 LA dems looked good.

2002:

GA and MN GOP, of course...

TX GOP

FL GOP-Jeb wins huge and Dems lose all statewide offices as Reps cream them in lege races and pick up the new CDs in addition to CD-05

NH GOP-GOP wipes out Dems in the state House, win gov race, and annihilate two well-funded Democratic. House candidates.

2001:

NJ Dems: Pick up gov mansion and solidify control of state house/senate.

--

2006:

Potential Dem opportunities:

PA, NY

AZ-Napolitano looks good and a good showing for Dems might pull Pederson accross the finish line. The GOP did well in the state house in '04, so dems might pick up some lost territory there. If Kolbe is Primaried, Dems would have a good shot at that seat.

OH- Although the senate seat is out of reach, a good victory by Strickland in the gov race combined with state and federal scandals could lead to wins in congressional seats (OH-18, for starters) and in the state house.

GOP:

I don't think its going to be a very good GOP year...though I suppose they could do well in IA or MN, but I think those states could swing either way.

MN-While some see this as a GOP opportunity because of the senate seat, I'm not seeing it. I think Kennedy is a mediocre candidate and that Dems are on the rebound in the state. The dems are close to a majority in the state house and have a solid majority in the state senate, so they have more opportunity for a sweep, imo. Moreover, I could see a Dem pick-up in CD-02 and even in CD 06 if the GOP has a really bad year.

IA-This one really could go either way. While I'm not impressed with Culver, I think Gronstal and Blouin are both impressive and could make up for Nussle's advantage the East with their west Iowa cred. It seems to me that a good dem campaign could do better than usual out west and kill him in Des Moines while slightly underperforming out east. But perhaps thats just wishful thinking. In any case, the lege is closely divided, so a wind in any direction could send that, along with the open CD-01 with the winning state party.


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« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2005, 08:46:36 pm »
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I think its a good idea to think on the state level of winning state parties.  I think a few more winners/losers can be added to the list:

2004:

Big Winners: CO Dems
MT Dems
IN GOP- Win Gov chair, pick-up CD9, enlarge majorities in CDs 2 and 8, and take back state legislature
2002-2003


MO GOP-Win gov race and accumulate huge state house majorities, in addition to their senate and Prez wins
IL Dems- OBAMA, congressional victories
LA Dems</b>: Keep vulnerable senate seat, pick-up gov chair, and the next year, the gov chair.  Of course, this sweep was balanced out by the party switch of Alexander and the loss of a senate seat and LA-07 in '04...but for '02-'03 LA dems looked good.

2002:

GA and MN GOP, of course...

TX GOP

FL GOP-Jeb wins huge and Dems lose all statewide offices as Reps cream them in lege races and pick up the new CDs in addition to CD-05

NH GOP-GOP wipes out Dems in the state House, win gov race, and annihilate two well-funded Democratic. House candidates.

2001:

NJ Dems: Pick up gov mansion and solidify control of state house/senate.

--

2006:

Potential Dem opportunities:

PA, NY

AZ-Napolitano looks good and a good showing for Dems might pull Pederson accross the finish line.  The GOP did well in the state house in '04, so dems might pick up some lost territory there.  If Kolbe is Primaried, Dems would have a good shot at that seat. 

OH- Although the senate seat is out of reach, a good victory by Strickland in the gov race combined with state and federal scandals could lead to wins in congressional seats (OH-18, for starters) and in the state house.

GOP:

I don't think its going to be a very good GOP year...though I suppose they could do well in IA or MN, but I think those states could swing either way.

MN-While some see this as a GOP opportunity because of the senate seat, I'm not seeing it.  I think Kennedy is a mediocre candidate and that Dems are on the rebound in the state.  The dems are close to a majority in the state house and have a solid majority in the state senate, so they have more opportunity for a sweep, imo.  Moreover, I could see a Dem pick-up in CD-02 and even in CD 06 if the GOP has a really bad year.

IA-This one really could go either way.  While I'm not impressed with Culver, I think Gronstal and Blouin are both impressive and could make up for Nussle's advantage the East with their west Iowa cred.  It seems to me that a good dem campaign could do better than usual out west and kill him in Des Moines while slightly underperforming out east.  But perhaps thats just wishful thinking.  In any case, the lege is closely divided, so a wind in any direction could send that, along with the open CD-01 with the winning state party.


I agree with majority of that.  Oh, WELCOME TO THE FORUM!
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