Does Kasich collapse if Cruz beats him in New York?

[Vosem]

Simple question. Right now, in most of the mid-Atlantic states, there is still a fairly large vote for Kasich, and in many of these states it's not clear which of the two main anti-_trump candidates is the strongest. If Cruz comes in second in New York, does Kasich's support take a large hit, with Cruz coming to lead Kasich decisively in polls of PA and MD?

[dax00]

No. The sharp contrast between all the remaining candidates lends to greater loyalty among supporters.

[andrew_c]

Only if Cruz beats him by double digits.

[PeteB]

I doubt it, but we will never find out, as this scenario will not happen. If anything, many Cruz voters may defect to Kasich in hopes of stopping Trump.

[dax00]

I doubt it, but we will never find out, as this scenario will not happen. If anything, many Cruz voters may defect to Kasich in hopes of stopping Trump.

That'd only have a chance of taking away potential Trump delegates in CDs he's bound to get less than 50% in, and it would require great cooperation, which I just don't see happening.

[Angel of Death]

Something cannot collapse when it's already lying on the ground.

[Mr. Morden]

Remember how Cruz overperformed his polling in Wisconsin while Kasich underperformed his?  Many were interpreting that as tactical voting by anti-Trump voters—that there was a segment of voters who preferred Kasich, but voted for Cruz because he was the leading anti-Trump candidate.

I was wondering if this kind of tactical voting is something that will really vary state-to-state.  Do voters actually look at the polls of their own state to decide which non-Trump candidate to throw their support to?

That’s one possibility.  But I think it’s also possible that, because the media has already billed the national race as Cruz vs. Trump with Kasich an afterthought, tactical voting everywhere from now on will favor Cruz at the expense of Kasich.  In that case, Kasich wouldn’t collapse in the polls.  It would just be that he’d keep underperforming his polling numbers once we got to election day.

[Young Conservative]

He cant keep pretending to be more electable when he comes in last every time, so yes it could help lead to his continuing decline

[SillyAmerican]

I doubt it, but we will never find out, as this scenario will not happen. If anything, many Cruz voters may defect to Kasich in hopes of stopping Trump.

I agree. And I don't think Cruz beats Kasich tomorrow, I just don't see it happening...

[jaichind]

Remember how Cruz overperformed his polling in Wisconsin while Kasich underperformed his?  Many were interpreting that as tactical voting by anti-Trump voters—that there was a segment of voters who preferred Kasich, but voted for Cruz because he was the leading anti-Trump candidate.

I was wondering if this kind of tactical voting is something that will really vary state-to-state.  Do voters actually look at the polls of their own state to decide which non-Trump candidate to throw their support to?

That’s one possibility.  But I think it’s also possible that, because the media has already billed the national race as Cruz vs. Trump with Kasich an afterthought, tactical voting everywhere from now on will favor Cruz at the expense of Kasich.  In that case, Kasich wouldn’t collapse in the polls.  It would just be that he’d keep underperforming his polling numbers once we got to election day.

We will see.  If there is tactical voting then we should see Kasich doing very poorly in Upstate NY while Cruz should do poorly in NYC and NYC suburbs counties.   NY is a place where depending on where you live the anti-Trump might be different.

[Mr. Morden]

Remember how Cruz overperformed his polling in Wisconsin while Kasich underperformed his?  Many were interpreting that as tactical voting by anti-Trump voters—that there was a segment of voters who preferred Kasich, but voted for Cruz because he was the leading anti-Trump candidate.

I was wondering if this kind of tactical voting is something that will really vary state-to-state.  Do voters actually look at the polls of their own state to decide which non-Trump candidate to throw their support to?

That’s one possibility.  But I think it’s also possible that, because the media has already billed the national race as Cruz vs. Trump with Kasich an afterthought, tactical voting everywhere from now on will favor Cruz at the expense of Kasich.  In that case, Kasich wouldn’t collapse in the polls.  It would just be that he’d keep underperforming his polling numbers once we got to election day.

We will see.  If there is tactical voting then we should see Kasich doing very poorly in Upstate NY while Cruz should do poorly in NYC and NYC suburbs counties.   NY is a place where depending on where you live the anti-Trump might be different.

What I mean is that while it's possible that the anti-Trump voters will be smart in tactical voting, going to Cruz in one place and Kasich in another, depending on what makes sense for the region, it's also possible that the tactical voting will favor Cruz everywhere, even in states where Kasich voters might as well just stick with him.  The voters aren't necessarily sophisticated about the delegate rules and the like.  They just might be aware that Cruz is the one likely non-Trump candidate left at the national level, so even while some of them tell pollsters that they prefer Kasich, they actually end up voting for Cruz on election day...even in places like NYC where Cruz would otherwise be weak.

It's similar to how 3rd party candidates do better in polls than they do on election day.  There are voters who tell pollsters that their preference is a 3rd party candidate, but then resign themselves to voting for one of the options who can win once they get in the voting booth.

At least, that's one possibility, and I guess it'll be tested tomorrow.

[Heisenberg]

He cant keep pretending to be more electable when he comes in last every time, so yes it could help lead to his continuing decline

He is the most electable in a GE, but primary voters don't seem to care.

[Xing]

Something cannot collapse when it's already lying on the ground.

This. No one seemed to raise an eyebrow when Cruz beat him in MI, where he invested tons of resources.

[nicholas.slaydon]

No, he will not drop out because he wants to force the GOP into a contested convention.

[Vosem]

Something cannot collapse when it's already lying on the ground.

This. No one seemed to raise an eyebrow when Cruz beat him in MI, where he invested tons of resources.

Thing is, then all the anti-_trump forces needed to keep Kasich around to beat him in Ohio, so they kept quiet. After 4/26, Kasich will no longer be necessary for anyone.

[Lief 🗽]

Kasich is already basically at his floor. There's a solid chunk of the party that hates TRUMP but would also never vote for a sanctimonious serial adulterer like Cruz.