Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[MaxQue]

Considering these results are almost exclusively NYC, I'm actually thinking these results are pretty bad for Clinton. (standard warnings about early exits apply)

We know it's NYC?

Apparently.

From ABC:

Caution: Exit poll results this evening may change significantly after 9 p.m.

This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.

We don’t know if this will change the post-9 p.m. exit poll data, but it could. So consider the data that are available from 5-9 p.m. as especially preliminary, and check back for updates.

So, it doesn't mean it's only NYC. It means results from upstate don't include people with day jobs. It includes retirees, etc...

[RI]

The early counties were all of NYC plus Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Erie.

[Adam Griffin]

CNN:

32% care most about experience, 29% honesty, 25% empathy, 11% electability

Is Sanders honest/trustworthy? 83% Yes
Is Clinton honest/trustworthy? 60% Yes

Best chance to win in November: Clinton 64%, Sanders 33%

[Mr. Morden]

I think we need to keep remembering very closed primary. I'm not sure this data is telling us much at all.

Is there a reason why exit polls would be more reliable in an open primary than a closed primary?

[Mehmentum]

Considering these results are almost exclusively NYC, I'm actually thinking these results are pretty bad for Clinton. (standard warnings about early exits apply)

We know it's NYC?

Apparently.

From ABC:

Caution: Exit poll results this evening may change significantly after 9 p.m.

This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.

We don’t know if this will change the post-9 p.m. exit poll data, but it could. So consider the data that are available from 5-9 p.m. as especially preliminary, and check back for updates.

So, it doesn't mean it's only NYC. It means results from upstate don't include people with day jobs. It includes retirees, etc...

It depends.  Does 'they' refer to the people who haven't voted yet, or those counties.  Damn vague wording.

[The Other Castro]

From FOX:

On the Democratic side, Clinton was leading among Hispanic voters, 57-43 percent.

But among the under 30 crowd, Sanders was dominating 69-31 percent, exit polls showed.

[gf20202]

Josh Marshall from TPM posted some toplines with a grain of salt caveat:

Josh Marshall ‏@joshtpm 6m6 minutes ago
Early exits, Grain o Salt: 18-29s, Bern 69, Hill 31; Af-Americans Bern 24, Hill 76.

If HRC is up 52 with AAs, it should comfortably be in the double digits as long as the exit polls are representative of the state.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think we need to keep remembering very closed primary. I'm not sure this data is telling us much at all.

Is there a reason why exit polls would be more reliable in an open primary than a closed primary?

Not reliable - but considering the likely make up of this electorate I don't think we can put as much stock in the "well in xx they answered xxx, so it must mean xx" - that's what I mean.

[Alcon]

I'm pretty sure they're including statewide interviews in the exit polling.  Why would they not?  They're just saying the sample is less representative (for now), and maybe too small, in those upstate areas.

[The Other Castro]

Interesting...

[Adam Griffin]

Do we know if phone interviews statewide with early voters is in the current exit poll data? That'd provide at least some buffer against the data being entirely skewed.

[Fusionmunster]

These exit polls make no sense again.

[YPestis25]

Do we know if phone interviews statewide with early voters is in the current exit poll data? That'd provide at least some buffer against the data being entirely skewed.

I believe there's no early voting.

[Mehmentum]

Interesting...

Not that surprising.  Supporters of the losing candidate would be more likely to feel bitter about the campaign, while the victors are more likely to feel magnanimous.

[Fusionmunster]

Do we know if phone interviews statewide with early voters is in the current exit poll data? That'd provide at least some buffer against the data being entirely skewed.

I believe there's no early voting.

There is absentee voting though.

[Eraserhead]

CNN:

32% care most about experience, 29% honesty, 25% empathy, 11% electability

Is Sanders honest/trustworthy? 83% Yes
Is Clinton honest/trustworthy? 60% Yes

Best chance to win in November: Clinton 64%, Sanders 33%

I wonder who won on the empathy question. We know who won on the other three.

[ElectionsGuy]

Probably because its been a talking point among Clinton people that Sanders' has energized the party and thereby made Clinton a sharper candidate for the general. Sanders voters probably more likely to believe in a divided party because they want him very badly, see that he's losing, but can't unite around Clinton just yet.

[yankeesfan]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

[IceSpear]

From FOX:

On the Democratic side, Clinton was leading among Hispanic voters, 57-43 percent.

But among the under 30 crowd, Sanders was dominating 69-31 percent, exit polls showed.

That under 30 number is terrible news for Bernie.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting...

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

[The Other Castro]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

Great, now Wulfric's going to have a field day.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

Great, now Wulfric's going to have a field day.

Thankfully - these are early exits.

[yankeesfan]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.  I think these leaks are the actual exit poll top-lines

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.

Oh, must have remembered wrong.