Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I expect Trump to win all CD except for 2 CD's and get around 85 delegates.

Which 2?

13 is a strong possibility, if the Anti-Trump forces are competent Kasich could win it.

[The Other Castro]

From ABC:

Caution: Exit poll results this evening may change significantly after 9 p.m.

This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.

We don’t know if this will change the post-9 p.m. exit poll data, but it could. So consider the data that are available from 5-9 p.m. as especially preliminary, and check back for updates.

[The Other Castro]

64% want an outsider.

[Gass3268]

51% of Republican Voters think that Wall Street hurts the U.S. economy.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

a 3rd of NY Republicans voted against a candidate.

6% are Liberal, 24% Moderate, 50% somewhat conservative and the rest are very conservative

[Alcon]

Easy new high water mark for "outsider":

Texas: 43% outsider, 44% experienced
Iowa: 48% outsider, 46% experienced
Ohio: 48% outsider, 45% experienced
Virginia: 48% outsider, 43% experienced
South Carolina: 48% outsider, 47% experienced
Wisconsin: 49% outsider, 45% experienced
Arkansas: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
New Hampshire: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
Georgia: 51% outsider, 40% experienced
Oklahoma: 51% outsider, 42% experienced
Michigan: 52% outsider, 41% experienced
Missouri: 53% outsider, 39% experienced
Tennessee: 53% outsider, 36% experienced
Massachusetts: 56% outsider, 36% experienced
Alabama: 58% outsider, 37% experienced
Mississippi: 60% outsider, 35% experienced
Nevada: 61% outsider, 32% experienced
New York: 64% outsider, ? experienced

Based on previous exit polling in similar states, this may suggest that Trump is in the low-mid 50s.

[The Other Castro]

57% say the campaign has divided the party.

[swf541]

John King on CNN and others seemto think Trump railing against the system is helping him a lot

Also:

King on CNN saying Indiana internal polling has shifted in the last week from Cruz up double digits to about tied

[The Other Castro]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Volrath50]

Did I just hear John King say he has seen polling from Indiana?

From what I heard, he said that after Wisconsin, polling from the senate race in Indiana showed Cruz up by double digits, but now Trump and Cruz are neck-in-neck.

If I heard right, and King actually has seen some unreleased Indiana internal polls or something, that would be interesting and the first amount of polling we've (indirectly) seen out of Indiana.

[Holmes]

Did I just hear John King say he has seen polling from Indiana?

From what I heard, he said that after Wisconsin, polling from the senate race in Indiana showed Cruz up by double digits, but now Trump and Cruz are neck-in-neck.

If I heard right, and King actually has seen some unreleased Indiana internal polls or something, that would be interesting and the first amount of polling we've (indirectly) seen out of Indiana.

Could be from that poll that one member here was saying he got a call from.

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38487665

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Eraserhead]

It should be called right at 9 PM unless upstate New York changes the picture quite a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/722539232095506432

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[swf541]

This map tells me that Drumpf will sweep Mohawk Valley and Western NY.

There's a lot of evidence that Trump has done worse with white people of German ancestry than with white people in general, so I'm not sure about that.  Of course, German is the plurality white ancestry nationwide, so we don't know if those counties are actually more German than the national average.

Intersting, I wonder if that varies by when those settled here, I have to imagine the Germans settled in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland came much earlier than those in the midwest.

Do we have any info on how Trump does among those of Scottish, Irish and Scotch-Irish descent?  I imagine thats his best white demographic

Also were is that map from I want a copy for MD

[ElectionsGuy]

@Skill and Chance



Germans are definitely more anti-Trump. Doesn't bode well for Nebraska and South Dakota.

[yankeesfan]

Keep an eye on the @ryangrim twitter.  He's passed along the leaked exit polls for the last few contests.

[Mr. Morden]

New York exits on electability:



compared to Wisconsin exits on electability:

[Volrath50]

New York exits on electability:



compared to Wisconsin exits on electability:

So this should be fairly close to topline numbers. Trump actually might be inflated slightly - polls (including the WI exit poll) typically show more Cruz/Kasich supporters think Trump is the most electable than Trump supporters think Cruz/Kasich is the most electable.

[Young Conservative]

I don't think Trump will get over 50 and I am pleasantly surprised at how few liberal republican voters there are!

[The Other Castro]

I don't think Trump will get over 50 and I am pleasantly surprised at how few liberal republican voters there are!

You think he'll be under 50 with 56% thinking he's the most like to beat Clinton?

[swf541]

I don't think Trump will get over 50 and I am pleasantly surprised at how few liberal republican voters there are!

Err, your thinking that based on what?  The above points to Trump above 50

[Mr. Morden]

What % wouldn't vote for X if they were the nominee?:

[standwrand]

probably Trump 55% with Kasich taking most #nevertrump voters and Cruz at less than 15%

[swf541]

probably Trump 55% with Kasich taking most #nevertrump voters and Cruz at less than 15%

Looking something like that