Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

[Volrath50]

This really shows how Trump is winning the PR war over the results of a contested convention. Regardless of the actual "rightness" of his claim, he has a much more straightforward, common-sense argument for why he should be the nominee at a contested convention - if he keeps hammering this until Cleveland, it may be tough for the delegates to make Cruz the nominee.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican voters by ideology (from NY exits, as given on CNN TV):

very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 50%
moderate 24%
liberal 6%

[standwrand]

Republican voters by ideology (from NY exits, as given on CNN TV):

very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 50%
moderate 24%
liberal 6%

And there's no way Cruz is getting 21% of the vote. Maybe this says something about Republicans in general or maybe just NY Repubs

[MK]

This really shows how Trump is winning the PR war over the results of a contested convention. Regardless of the actual "rightness" of his claim, he has a much more straightforward, common-sense argument for why he should be the nominee at a contested convention - if he keeps hammering this until Cleveland, it may be tough for the delegates to make Cruz the nominee.

Its the manafort effect.  No question the campaign is being more crafted and staying to message.    Cruz thought he could play above it all regular media campaign without anyone knowing about his backroom operation.  Trumps campaign saw this and brought it to light.     The one thing voters don'tlike its backroom politics.  

[Wisconsin+17]

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Almost a third of New Yorkers are staying home if Trump is the nominee. The real victor tonight is Hillary.

[Alcon]

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Almost a third of New Yorkers are staying home if Trump is the nominee. The real victor tonight is Hillary.

We know very well from previous election cycles that those numbers don't hold up -- even if they may with Trump more than most candidates.

[Wisconsin+17]

The interesting part is hearing from Trumpsters that 'flyover states' don't matter. Apparently they haven't done the math.

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Held up with Romney. He had a turnout decrease among white folks without a degree - that was more than enough to cost him the election.

That it's New York, makes it significant. This is supposed to be Trump's best state and a third are sitting out.

I don't see how he manages to beat Hillary.

[Alcon]

The interesting part is hearing from Trumpsters that 'flyover states' don't matter. Apparently they haven't done the math.

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Held up with Romney. He had a turnout decrease among white folks without a degree - that was more than enough to cost him the election.

That it's New York, makes it significant. This is supposed to be Trump's best state and a third are sitting out.

I don't see how he manages to beat Hillary.

You are assuming that the 2012 turnout decline was because of primary defectors, as opposed to because 2012 was a boring election...why?  I'm not denying that some people stayed home -- a few people will probably stay home because Martin O'Malley didn't get nominated.  The point is that these poll numbers are ridiculously inflated.  Case in point: the 2008 "will not vote for Obama" numbers among Clinton supporters were much higher.  Did some of them vote McCain?  Yes, especially among highly conservative Democrats.  Anywhere near the number indicated in many polls (which was often higher than 25%)?  No.

[Mr. Morden]

[yankeesfan]

8%....

Maybe Cruz can actually do better than we were expecting

[ElectionsGuy]

This is why Kasich is losing. The whole premise of his campaign is 'I can win in the fall' and nobody cares about winning.

[yourelection]

Trump may come up just short of the major victory he'd like to have, but otherwise it will be a big win for him.

[Suburbia]

I'm looking at Forest Hills, Rego Park, Kew Gardens, Queens. Those areas have some ultra conservative voters, and some centrist voters. Some of these voters propelled Rudy Giuliani to victory in 1993 against David N. Dinkins. That area is still Giuliani country. Can Trump do well with Jewish voters?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Jesus, the GOP really has just given up on this election haven't they?

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Jesus, the GOP really has just given up on this election haven't they?

The GOP candidates who "can win in November" have lost two elections in a row.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Because it's supported by the evidence. Quite a few of the demographic that is strongest Republican, had the worst turnout. Romney was a very poor fit for this demographic. Literally, there was nothing they had in common. Not on values, not on background.

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The problem is that every solid Republican supporter that is driven away by the personal attacks directed by Trump at Conservatives, is probably worth about 10 votes of the so-called Reagan democrats. Trump is going to need these people, if not now, in November. Without these people, it will lead to yet another victory by the democrats.

The only winner - unless she loses to Bernie will be Hillary tonight. Trump has already lost.

[Classic Conservative]

Glenn Beck is saying that Cruz will give a very important speech at 8:30 and he doesn't know what is happening. Could be big news.

[Averroës Nix]

This map tells me that Drumpf will sweep Mohawk Valley and Western NY.

There's a lot of evidence that Trump has done worse with white people of German ancestry than with white people in general, so I'm not sure about that.  Of course, German is the plurality white ancestry nationwide, so we don't know if those counties are actually more German than the national average.

Intersting, I wonder if that varies by when those settled here, I have to imagine the Germans settled in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland came much earlier than those in the midwest.

Do we have any info on how Trump does among those of Scottish, Irish and Scotch-Irish descent?  I imagine thats his best white demographic

Also were is that map from I want a copy for MD

[Fargobison]

Glenn Beck is saying that Cruz will give a very important speech at 8:30 and he doesn't know what is happening. Could be big news.

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[Matty]

VP announcement?

[standwrand]

Cruz/Rubio for the win!

[Wisconsin+17]

It's probably Crubio.

[Mehmentum]

Suspending campaign?
Cruz/Kasich unity ticket?
Secretly a lizard person?

Who knows!

[TarHeelDem]

I'm guessing VP pick. Interesting. Any thoughts on who it might be? Rubio's too obvious, right?