Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)
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Author Topic: Republicans New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)  (Read 22595 times)
Why
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« Reply #250 on: April 19, 2016, 09:51:56 PM »
« edited: April 19, 2016, 09:55:54 PM by Why »
Quote from: Seriously? on April 19, 2016, 09:48:24 PM
Quote from: Why on April 19, 2016, 09:44:12 PM
Trump is looking at the possibility of losing a delegate in 10,12,13,20,24. Maybe 2 in 12.
So looks like a minimum of 89 delegates and probably a couple more than that. 91 or 92 most likely.
Manafort said over 90 with the possibility of a few more. The way it's looking, 10 and 12 are Kasich delegates, a handful could go either way. 90+ sounds about right.

Looking again I think Trump loses 1 delegate in 10,12,20 and 24, so that is 91.
13 is going to come down to a very few votes, less than 50.
I doubt Kasich is going to win 12.

So 90 or 91 for me now.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #251 on: April 19, 2016, 09:54:02 PM »
Trump will get more North Carolina voters than New York. New York shouldn't be worth more than 50 delegates in the future.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #252 on: April 19, 2016, 09:54:15 PM »
Trump under 60 again.
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dax00
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« Reply #253 on: April 19, 2016, 09:55:45 PM »
Trump literally up ONE vote over 50% in CD 13 with 457/496 precincts reporting.
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Why
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« Reply #254 on: April 19, 2016, 09:56:47 PM »
Trump is below 50% in 13.

He is gaining on Kasich in 12
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Why
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« Reply #255 on: April 19, 2016, 10:02:16 PM »
Kasich has hit the lead again in 12.

Trump is 2 votes below 50% in 13.
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RI
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« Reply #256 on: April 19, 2016, 10:04:10 PM »
Trump narrowly won Tompkins County over Kasich by 2.7%.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #257 on: April 19, 2016, 10:04:28 PM »
Absolute Trumpathon.
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dax00
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« Reply #258 on: April 19, 2016, 10:04:47 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2016, 10:06:32 PM by dax00 »
NY-13 (463/496 precincts reporting):
Trump 1145
Crusich 1146

Crusich randomly just got 3 votes added...
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Why
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« Reply #259 on: April 19, 2016, 10:06:18 PM »
Trump is creeping back up towards 50% in 20 but I think the remaining precincts in the part Saratoga county in 20 and Albany will keep him below 50%.
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sportydude
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« Reply #260 on: April 19, 2016, 10:06:26 PM »
So, Trump wins his home state in a landslide, but loses his home county against someone who doesn't nearly have the chance of becoming a presidential nominee? ROFL
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cinyc
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« Reply #261 on: April 19, 2016, 10:07:03 PM »
Quote from: dax00 on April 19, 2016, 10:04:47 PM
NY-13 (463/496 precincts reporting):
Trump 1145
Crusich 1143

This probably won't be called tonight and will come down to who wins the absentees. I don't think New York counts absentees until next week.
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Matty
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« Reply #262 on: April 19, 2016, 10:07:13 PM »
Anyone have data on the how precincts voted in the area around wall street?
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« Reply #263 on: April 19, 2016, 10:08:56 PM »
In 12 Trump has been just over 100 ahead most of the time but twice that I have seen Kasich has jumped to a tiny lead only to then fall back to just over 100 behind.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #264 on: April 19, 2016, 10:09:38 PM »
Quote from: marty on April 19, 2016, 10:07:13 PM
Anyone have data on the how precincts voted in the area around wall street?

Kasich won Wallstreet, but nobody who actually works on Wallstreet lives on Wallstreet
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cinyc
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« Reply #265 on: April 19, 2016, 10:10:20 PM »
Quote from: marty on April 19, 2016, 10:07:13 PM
Anyone have data on the how precincts voted in the area around wall street?

Generally for Kasich, according to the New York Times' NYC precinct map:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/04/19/us/elections/new-york-city-republican-primary-results.html
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IceSpear
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« Reply #266 on: April 19, 2016, 10:10:22 PM »
Does anywhere have district by district breakdowns?
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cinyc
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« Reply #267 on: April 19, 2016, 10:11:59 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on April 19, 2016, 10:10:22 PM
Does anywhere have district by district breakdowns?

NYS Board of Elections:
http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/Home.aspxb

AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2016/by_cd/NY_GOP_0419_VD.html?SITE=AP&
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PeteB
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« Reply #268 on: April 19, 2016, 10:14:04 PM »
As it stands now, Trump is virtually assured to get all but 11 delegates.

Kasich's maximum would be 11 delegates, and that assumes he wins CD 12 and Trump falls under 50% in all CDs where he is currently running at 48-53%. A more likely result would be for Kasich to take 5-6 delegates and Trump takes the rest.

Cruz's maximum (unlikely) will be to take a delegate in CD10.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #269 on: April 19, 2016, 10:15:51 PM »

Thanks! So Cruz will get 0 delegates. He totally wasted his time in NY.
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dax00
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« Reply #270 on: April 19, 2016, 10:18:34 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on April 19, 2016, 10:15:51 PM
Thanks! So Cruz will get 0 delegates. He totally wasted his time in NY.
I wouldn't say that. Had he spent no time at all, Trump may be over 50% in CDs where he currently isn't.
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Vosem
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« Reply #271 on: April 19, 2016, 10:19:50 PM »

Why's that? Every vote he got kept trump's number lower, and in many places gave delegates to Kasich, which will therefore not vote on the first ballot for trump. New York wasn't particularly successful, but neither was #Nevertrump's time here entirely wasted.
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cinyc
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« Reply #272 on: April 19, 2016, 10:19:54 PM »

That time wasn't wasted if it kept Trump below 50% in various CDs.  Denying Trump delegates in any way possible is the name of Cruz's game.  And Cruz barely campaigned in New York.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #273 on: April 19, 2016, 10:21:25 PM »

I've updated my map by CD here:
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?year=2016&off=0&f=0&evt=P&elect=2&fips=36#

based on NYS BOE a few minutes ago.  Click on "H" next to Cong Dist button to see percentages.  Note, Carson vote not yet included.

Enjoy,
Dave
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Gass3268
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« Reply #274 on: April 19, 2016, 10:21:35 PM »

Isn't it beautiful!

Trump's numbers in Metro North are ridonklous!
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