Will any of these Democratic candidates for the U.S House win in November?
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  Will any of these Democratic candidates for the U.S House win in November?
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Author Topic: Will any of these Democratic candidates for the U.S House win in November?  (Read 586 times)
136or142
Adam T
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« on: April 19, 2016, 12:48:33 PM »
« edited: April 20, 2016, 08:13:22 AM by Adam T »

These are either fairly high profile Democrats or Democrats running against controversial Republican incumbents running in districts where the 2014 Democratic nominee lost by more than 20% and the Republican incumbent is running for reelection.

There is already a thread on Terri Bonoff, but I thought I would put all of the likely Democratic nominees that fit the above description into one topic.

The Republican incumbent is in brackets
1.California 49, Douglas Applegate (Darrell Issa)
2.Colorado 3, Gail Schwartz (Scott Tipton)
3.Indiana 2, Lynn Coleman (Jackie Walorski)
4.Indiana 8, David Orentlicher (Larry Bucshon)
5.Minnesota 3, Terrri Bonoff (Erik Paulson)
6.Missouri 2, Bill Otto (Ann Wagner)
7.New York 23, John Plumb (Tom Reed)
8.Oklahoma 5, Al McAffrey (Steve Russell)
9.South Dakota, Paula Hawks (Kristi Noem)
10.Wisconsin 1, Tom Breu (Paul Ryan)

Just for clarification, ,by 'will any of these win' I meant 'can any of these win' but since anything can happen, 'will' made a lot more sense.  I'm not asking for an actual prediction at this point, just which one of these should run very competitive races, and at least lose by say, less than 5% (try putting all of that in the subject box.)

Al McAffrey was the Democratic nominee in this district in 2014 and he lost by just over 20%, but that was a wave Republican year and Oklahoma 5 is by far the most competitive district for the Democrats in Oklahoma.
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Orser67
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2016, 03:56:53 PM »

I could see these three being fairly competitive:

2.Colorado 2, Gail Schwartz (Scott Tipton)
5.Minnesota 3, Terrri Bonoff (Erik Paulson)
7.New York 23, John Plumb (Tom Reed)
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2016, 05:46:52 PM »

John Plumb is far and away the most viable on that list.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2016, 06:24:14 PM »

Can you imagine how awesome it would be if Tom Breu won?  lol,  that would just be crazy...
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2016, 05:43:16 AM »

I think you mean Colorado's 3rd District for Scott Tipton. I got worried when I saw Colorado's 2nd listed as competitive because that's the Boulder district represented by Jared Polis.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2016, 08:13:48 AM »

I think you mean Colorado's 3rd District for Scott Tipton. I got worried when I saw Colorado's 2nd listed as competitive because that's the Boulder district represented by Jared Polis.

Corrected.  Thanks.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2016, 10:01:35 AM »

Schwartz, Bonoff and Plumb will get relatively close. But if even one of them will win - it will be quite an achievement.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2016, 06:25:38 AM »

Bonoff, Plumb, and Schwartz could. 

Some other candidates to keep an eye on in reach/semi-reach districts: Joshua Gottheimer (I think he's gonna unseat Scott Garrett), the guy in WV-2, IN-9 (if we get a major Dem wave and Hollingsworth is as weak as I suspect and Yoder runs an A+ campaign), IL-12 (the Dem seems to be getting his act together in a big way, we'll see if anything comes of it), and MT-AL.

The Dems seem to have finally realized the opportunity that they have in the House this year and have started recruiting strong candidates like Tom Nelson (WI-8), Bonoff, Schwartz, the guy in AK-AL, and Kim Myers (Richard Hanna's open seat), but it is too little, too late Sad
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2016, 08:58:30 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 09:00:02 AM by Adam T »

Bonoff, Plumb, and Schwartz could.  

Some other candidates to keep an eye on in reach/semi-reach districts: Joshua Gottheimer (I think he's gonna unseat Scott Garrett), the guy in WV-2, IN-9 (if we get a major Dem wave and Hollingsworth is as weak as I suspect and Yoder runs an A+ campaign), IL-12 (the Dem seems to be getting his act together in a big way, we'll see if anything comes of it), and MT-AL.

The Dems seem to have finally realized the opportunity that they have in the House this year and have started recruiting strong candidates like Tom Nelson (WI-8), Bonoff, Schwartz, the guy in AK-AL, and Kim Myers (Richard Hanna's open seat), but it is too little, too late Sad

I will hopefully be writing a post on this today.  All of the candidates you mention are either in districts that were won by Republicans in 2014 by less than 20% of are open seats, so they didn't fit my list.

The candidate in Illinois-12 is Charles (C.J) Baricevic and you are correct, he had been pretty much given up for dead, and he has since turned up his fundraising to the point where he has now raised over $500,000.
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