Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I know someone will say "another one of these polls??" But after tonight's events, this match up is about 95% likely.

[Xing]

I wouldn't say it's 95% likely yet. Trump was expected to get the majority of the delegates in NY. If he loses IN and doesn't win CA by enough, he still won't get 1,237.

To answer your question, though, Clinton probably wins.

[MK]

Its hard to say at this point.     Hillary has the DNC machine dragging her along although she is a weak candidate.   Trumps party is lunching nukes at him though I see its tailing off as of late.  This Election could be 1980 redux or 1988.      


I really believe that Hillary will refuse to debate Trump.  

[Ronnie]

It's barely 50% likely, I would say.  There are still so many variables that might knock Trump off track to win the nomination, one of which will be Connecticut next week.  He has to win more than 50% of the vote there.  Beyond that, he has to, at the very least, win a few congressional districts in Indiana, and then must win California.  All of that amounts to a fairly narrow path for him.

In any case, Hillary by ~10% nationwide, maybe more, unless something cataclysmic happens.

[MK]

Wonder what it felt like in 1980 when Carter supporters thought that crazy right wing Reagan had no chance of beating a sitting president with large lead in the polls ?


I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

[Virginiá]

Even with Hillary's favorability ratings in the toilet, she still handily beats Trump in virtually every poll by large margins. Assuming he ultimately becomes the nominee, Trump is not going to win in November regardless if he can tidy up his dumpster fire of an image a bit. Trump has pissed off women and minorities in ways that cannot be repaired by election day, and "Running to the center" isn't going to work. Overall, he's been & will probably continue to be a penny pincher, and even with the primary season wrapping up, he still has not put together a half-decent campaign.

This has me absolutely giddy. His failed candidacy is going to go off like a nuclear bomb on downballot Republicans come November and they will be spending the next 2 years so confused and beaten that it would be a miracle if they could even find their way back to capitol hill.

[Ljube]

Polls conducted now are meaningless. Here is a Virginia poll from April 2008.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5120080413019

[Camaro33]

While Clinton vs. Trump is the most likely outcome, it is still too early.

Also, everyone here is underestimating Trump and overestimating polls. This election is a bit different, the whole 2012 election + demographic changes don't apply too well when you have the two most unpopular people in the country as the presumptive nominees, and two people from totally different backgrounds as Obama and Romney. Just saying. It;s unpredictable until September/October at the earliest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2012 map with NC and he will take down GOP majorities in Congress

[TarHeelDem]

2012 map with NC and he will take down GOP majorities in Congress

Maybe not the House, but otherwise this.

[Wiz in Wis]

2012 map with NC and he will take down GOP majorities in Congress

I think that's his high-water mark. It's also quite possible that he will run an inordinately bad ground campaign, totally blow the debates, and frighten the crap out of middle-America so much he barely holds on to Utah and Mississippi.

[The Other Castro]

This matchup still isn't the "likely" one yet, but it would probably involve Clinton winning something like 53-42, while taking back a slim majority in the House and around 8 Senate seats.

[Donnie]

I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

[beaver2.0]

I wouldn't underestimate Drumpf.

This, but I still think Clinton will win.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

I'm surprised some people still underestimate him.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The one thing that could bring Hillary down is if Trump launches a scorched earth attack and brings up the old conspiracy theories, in an uncomfortably direct manner. If Trump lieterally starts stating that Vince Foster's death was suspicious etc, he could create enough confusion to drag her approval ratings to his levels. Stone's RAPE PAC could create some unsettling headwinds as well.

My prediction is that the Democrats get cocky, and then get a sudden SHOCK POLL with Trump in the lead that causes mass panic, leading to kitchen sinks being thrown at the GOP that should result in a narrow victory for Hillary.

The other issue is all sorts of people that normally consider themselves above the fray to come out the woodwork and brief against Trump. We've already seen foreign leaders deciding to meddle, capitalising on Trump's astonishing infamy abroad (even by GOP standards) to demagogue to their own electorates. This will backfire of course, as Americans will rather dislike a parade of smug foreign politicians and UN officials making helpful suggestions.

[RaphaelDLG]

lol @ wishful thinking conservatives in this thread with bearish predictions about Trump.

He's looking very strong right now.  He's not a lock, of course, but I think Trump needs to get murdered in Indiana, Kasich needs to drop out at a strategically ideal time and donors need to start pouring money into California on behalf of Cruz for Trump not win on the first ballot.  He will just be too strong in the NE states remaining. 

Kasich is a total dud.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is that an ironic question?

[White Trash]

The one thing that could bring Hillary down is if Trump launches a scorched earth attack and brings up the old conspiracy theories, in an uncomfortably direct manner. If Trump lieterally starts stating that Vince Foster's death was suspicious etc, he could create enough confusion to drag her approval ratings to his levels. Stone's RAPE PAC could create some unsettling headwinds as well.

My prediction is that the Democrats get cocky, and then get a sudden SHOCK POLL with Trump in the lead that causes mass panic, leading to kitchen sinks being thrown at the GOP that should result in a narrow victory for Hillary.

The other issue is all sorts of people that normally consider themselves above the fray to come out the woodwork and brief against Trump. We've already seen foreign leaders deciding to meddle, capitalising on Trump's astonishing infamy abroad (even by GOP standards) to demagogue to their own electorates. This will backfire of course, as Americans will rather dislike a parade of smug foreign politicians and UN officials making helpful suggestions.

I can totally see this happening. Bookmarking this post just in case.

[President Johnson]

Businessman Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Susana Martinez (R-NM): 281 EV. (50.19%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Al Franken (D-MN): 257 EV. (48.22%)

[nicholas.slaydon]

If it's a Trump Vs Clinton in the general election we may be seeing the lowest voter turnout in modern US history. And if it is Trump Vs Hillary then I would say Trump has about a 55% chance to beat Hillary.

[President Johnson]

If it's a Trump Vs Clinton in the general election we may be seeing the lowest voter turnout in modern US history. And if it is Trump Vs Hillary then I would say Trump has about a 55% chance to beat Hillary.

LOL. TRUMP will bring in millions of additional voters (both supporters and opponents, but I think more supporters). Voter turnout may very well exceed 2008 this time. TRUMP alone has now almost as many votes in the primary as Mitt had at the end.

[Virginiá]

If it's a Trump Vs Clinton in the general election we may be seeing the lowest voter turnout in modern US history. And if it is Trump Vs Hillary then I would say Trump has about a 55% chance to beat Hillary.

LOL. TRUMP will bring in millions of additional voters (both supporters and opponents, but I think more supporters). Voter turnout may very well exceed 2008 this time. TRUMP alone has now almost as many votes in the primary as Mitt had at the end.

Well then, if that's his strategy, he is failing already. He hasn't really been bringing in new voters to the primaries. Most of these voters are Republican general electorate voters who typically don't vote in primaries, which explains why the party registration statistics in various states have not surged in any way consistent with the "new voter" theory.

I would suggest that you step out of your Trump bubble for a moment and look at the data objectively and not through a YUGE pro-Trump lens.

[pbrower2a]

My projection:

based upon polling and how credible I consider the polls:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

White -- tie or  someone leading with less than 40%.

[White Trash]

I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

I'm surprised some people still underestimate him.

It's not just about Trump. This forum underestimates any Republican candidate because it wants Clinton to win the general. As simple as that. The GOP could run a Lincoln/Reagan ticket and this forum would rate the election is likely D because of demographics, the 270/272 freiwal and NORTHERN VIRGINIA!!1!

If the GOP pushed the Lincoln/Reagan ticket against Lincoln, would New Hampshire still be safe D?