Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump

[White Trash]

If the GOP pushed the Lincoln/Reagan ticket against Lincoln, would New Hampshire still be safe D?

Sure. There is no Republican who can win the state in 2016.

Christ Himself/George Washington?

[ProudModerate2]

I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

I'm surprised some people still underestimate him.

It's not just about Trump. This forum underestimates any Republican candidate because it wants Clinton to win the general. As simple as that. The GOP could run a Lincoln/Reagan ticket and this forum would rate the election likely D because of demographics, the 270/272 freiwal and NORTHERN VIRGINIA!!1!

No, no ...... Your assessment about our "forum" is wrong. There are not only Democrats, but some Republicans (here on Atlas) who doubt that Little-Hands-Drumpf-Fuhrer can win versus Hillary.
trump is the least of the candidates (from the 3 still in) that can win against Hillary (IMO).
I have seen a number of posts (from both D and R members here) who say that Kasich or a Kasich/Rubio ticket has a small, but positive chance of winning over Hillary.

[IceSpear]

I wouldn't underestimate Trump.

I'm surprised some people still underestimate him.

It's not just about Trump. This forum underestimates any Republican candidate because it wants Clinton to win the general. As simple as that. The GOP could run a Lincoln/Reagan ticket and this forum would rate the election likely D because of demographics, the 270/272 freiwal and NORTHERN VIRGINIA!!1!

It's actually 271 freiwal now.

[SillyAmerican]

While Clinton vs. Trump is the most likely outcome, it is still too early.

Also, everyone here is underestimating Trump and overestimating polls. This election is a bit different, the whole 2012 election + demographic changes don't apply too well when you have the two most unpopular people in the country as the presumptive nominees, and two people from totally different backgrounds as Obama and Romney. Just saying. It;s unpredictable until September/October at the earliest.

Yes. All of the above.

If the GOP pushed the Lincoln/Reagan ticket against Lincoln, would New Hampshire still be safe D?

Sure. There is no Republican who can win the state in 2016.

Christ Himself/George Washington?

I would have sworn Christ was an independent.

[MK]

Posters here would probably have Hillary beating  Jesus/Moses ticket by 15pts.  Its really getting ridiculous considering the Dnc has protected her most of the primary with no real opponents and Saturday night debates.  They are begging Bernie not to attack her on being crooked .

[SillyAmerican]

Posters here would probably have Hillary beating  Jesus/Moses ticket by 15pts.  Its really getting ridiculous considering the Dnc has protected her most of the primary with no real opponents and Saturday night debates.  They are begging Bernie not to attack her on being crooked .

Yeah, and what's got to be niggling at the back of the minds of many is this: Trump's popularity seems to continue to grow, despite many in the GOP throwing everything they have at him, while Clinton's popularity seems to continue to slump, even as many Dems do everything they can to bolster her candidacy. Bottom line: Trump will have had to beat 16 other candidates to secure the GOP nomination, while Clinton will have had to beat a 74 year old socialist to secure the Dem nomination. So which candidate has taken on the tougher task, and which candidate has thus far done a better job of accomplishing the task dealt to them?

[Slander and/or Libel]

It's going to be fun to look through threads like this on November 9.

[Sir Mohamed]

The Trumpster would (or shall I say will?) lose by at least 348-190 (2012 map+NC+NE-2). AZ, GA and MO are in play as well.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The stupid thing is that there are so many differing electoral systems in the USA to elect people.

It appears the USA is engrossed in running each state differently for the sake of being different.

Drink driving
Seat belts
Gun ownership
Voting for Presidential Candidates

For the sake of credibility, the country needs a standard voting system with compulsory voting.

This election will therefore be more dictated by voter turnout.

Trump has a real chance if he convinces more Republicans to the polls.

[Comrade Funk]

Only way Trump wins is if terrorism become the big issue, and Hillary goes PC by calling Islam the religion of peace. Bonus points if the terrorists are from Libya.

[SillyAmerican]

It appears the USA is engrossed in running each state differently for the sake of being different.

Some believe (myself included) that the federal government should be kept very light, and that the union should consist of the United STATES of America, not the UNITED States of America. In other words, states should make most of the rules under which their residents live. We now have way too many things being dictated by the folks in Washington, which contributes significantly to our problems; there is a fairly big difference between those living in Vermont and those living in Alabama, so it would be nice if we didn't feel the need to federalize everything in order to eliminate/subjugate those differences.

[Human]

Hillary would defeat Donald Trump, and it wouldn't even be close.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Hillary would defeat Donald Trump, and it wouldn't even be close.

But what if Trump spent the time between now and November telling everyone that he was lying, and only pretending to be a racist, childish ignoramous and that really his Dad is James Bond and he's got a really cool girlfriend in Canada he'll make a competent President? Wouldn't that improve his chances a whole lot?

[Virginiá]

Some believe (myself included) that the federal government should be kept very light, and that the union should consist of the United STATES of America, not the UNITED States of America. In other words, states should make most of the rules under which their residents live. We now have way too many things being dictated by the folks in Washington, which contributes significantly to our problems; there is a fairly big difference between those living in Vermont and those living in Alabama, so it would be nice if we didn't feel the need to federalize everything in order to eliminate/subjugate those differences.

Perhaps for lots of things, but I myself no longer trust states to create regulations for or even independently manage elections. The federal government needs to create rules and regulations for all states so that each state's majority party isn't constantly trying to change the rules to benefit them. I think this applies across the board and to both parties (to a degree), but I tend to look past most Democratic actions because their primary objective is usually to get as many people to vote as possible, which is something I am very actively for.

But looking at what happened in Arizona, and New York, and all the restrictive laws passed by Republicans so far with the intention of reducing turnout, they can't really be trusted to run fair elections. Period. And going back in history, states - particularly Southern states were far worse than today, so it's not like it has ever been OK. It needs to stop already.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

After tonight.....this is looking more likely unless Trumpster gets stopped at the convention.

[MasterJedi]

Clinton wins easily, certainly helps that Trump is a Clinton plant.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Its hard to say at this point.     Hillary has the DNC machine dragging her along although she is a weak candidate.   Trumps party is lunching nukes at him though I see its tailing off as of late.  This Election could be 1980 redux or 1988.      


I really believe that Hillary will refuse to debate Trump.  

She could host a veteran's benefit concert instead.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

2012 map with NC and he will take down GOP majorities in Congress

I think that's his high-water mark. It's also quite possible that he will run an inordinately bad ground campaign, totally blow the debates, and frighten the crap out of middle-America so much he barely holds on to Utah and Mississippi.

Trump won't win Utah.

[Ljube]

Van Jones repeated that Trump could get as much as 30% of the black vote and said that if he got half of that, which is a distinct possibility, he would win the election.

[Dr. Arch]

Van Jones repeated that Trump could get as much as 30% of the black vote and said that if he got half of that, which is a distinct possibility, he would win the election.

You keep telling yourself that.

[Vosem]

Hillary wins easily, though I wonder about downballot casualties. Hillary's win is going to be fueled by typically-Republican voters crossing over to vote for her (like McCaskill's in 2012, though that was a way more extreme example; going back to the more distant past, 1972 is a great example of this type of landslide, where one party nominates a candidate unacceptable to America and large sections of that party vote for their normal opponents), and not a wave for a party as occurred in 2008 or 1980. I can't see the House flipping at all, and I think Republicans have a better chance at keeping the Senate than is perhaps realized (though Democrats are favored to take it).

6 states split their votes between president/Senate in 2012, with one (West Virginia) giving more than 60% to Romney and the Democratic Senate candidate.

Could be wishful thinking, of course, and there are certain states with competent Democratic challengers (NH comes to mind) which may be lost with a _trump nomination. But even with the help up-ballot, it's difficult for me to see McGinty or Strickland (or Grayson if he is nominated) elected to the Senate.

2012 map with NC and he will take down GOP majorities in Congress

I think that's his high-water mark. It's also quite possible that he will run an inordinately bad ground campaign, totally blow the debates, and frighten the crap out of middle-America so much he barely holds on to Utah and Mississippi.

Trump won't win Utah.

Very possible (he was tied with Hillary in the last poll, and the undecideds are probably all historically-R voters; I tend to think _trump would eke out Utah), but do you really think the Republican congressional candidates, and gubernatorial candidate, would do any worse than usual there? Besides Love, who has her own issues.

Van Jones repeated that Trump could get as much as 30% of the black vote and said that if he got half of that, which is a distinct possibility, he would win the election.

There is no evidence that black voters will be any more Republican in 2016 than they were pre-Obama, regardless of who is the Republican nominee. _trump will not break 15%, and it would be a significant accomplishment if he were to break double-digits.

Maybe 20% would've been possible against Sanders (though I tend to doubt it). It definitely isn't against Bill's wife and Obama's Secretary of State.

[Virginiá]

Hillary wins easily, though I wonder about downballot casualties. Hillary's win is going to be fueled by typically-Republican voters crossing over to vote for her (like McCaskill's in 2012, though that was a way more extreme example; going back to the more distant past, 1972 is a great example of this type of landslide, where one party nominates a candidate unacceptable to America and large sections of that party vote for their normal opponents), and not a wave for a party as occurred in 2008 or 1980. I can't see the House flipping at all, and I think Republicans have a better chance at keeping the Senate than is perhaps realized (though Democrats are favored to take it).

6 states split their votes between president/Senate in 2012, with one (West Virginia) giving more than 60% to Romney and the Democratic Senate candidate.

Could be wishful thinking, of course, and there are certain states with competent Democratic challengers (NH comes to mind) which may be lost with a _trump nomination. But even with the help up-ballot, it's difficult for me to see McGinty or Strickland (or Grayson if he is nominated) elected to the Senate.

...

Ticket splitting was abysmally low in 2012 - Something like 5%. Polarization has only gotten worse since then. Also, I don't think you factored in the effect Trump is having on the Republican party's brand. There will substantial downballot losses if he goes down in flames - More people nowadays tend to vote straight down based on who they voted for at the top, and while this election may see more ticket splitting if people cross over, it doesn't mean there won't be huge losses for downballot Republican candidates. There are more than enough voters who vote this way to have that effect - The typical-Republican voters will just be icing on the cake.

I would also say that 1972 was a different time period altogether, and its voting patterns had different reasons behind them.

I can't see the House flipping at all, and I think Republicans have a better chance at keeping the Senate than is perhaps realized (though Democrats are favored to take it).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html

Ever since Trump announced, Republican performance in the generic Congressional poll has floundered. He is inflicting damage on their brand and it's rolling over into the other races now. It's not going to take much to snatch the Senate from McConnell's disgustingly greedy sausage-fingered hands.

As for the House, you're probably right. Unless those polls I posted above pick up to 2006-levels (or close to it), it likely won't flip. However, early last year there was basically zero chance it was flipping, and now we actually have at least a shot at a wave. So it's still better than nothing. If we get those kinds of margins in the House PV, Democrats will make large gains in the House.

[Third Party]

As others have posted, this forum has a hilarious pro-Hillary bias (it's almost on par with the Democrat Party-controlled websites, like "DU" and "DK"). It's worth looking back at the 2007 and early 2008 posts here. The Hillary hacks were convinced that she'd easily win the Democrats nomination, but then Obama came along and crushed her. Then this year they predicted that Sanders would only win one state, lol. Trump is going to crush her in November.

[MK]

As others have posted, this forum has a hilarious pro-Hillary bias (it's almost on par with the Democrat Party-controlled websites, like "DU" and "DK"). It's worth looking back at the 2007 and early 2008 posts here. The Hillary hacks were convinced that she'd easily win the Democrats nomination, but then Obama came along and crushed her. Then this year they predicted that Sanders would only win one state, lol. Trump is going to crush her in November.

[/b]

I wouldn't say that much.   Posters on here are gone bat Sh#$ crazy with overrating Hillary though.  If Trump can add discipline to his campaign while still maintain the "tell it like it is" meme he could really win this thing.   

[Virginiá]

As others have posted, this forum has a hilarious pro-Hillary bias (it's almost on par with the Democrat Party-controlled websites, like "DU" and "DK"). It's worth looking back at the 2007 and early 2008 posts here. The Hillary hacks were convinced that she'd easily win the Democrats nomination, but then Obama came along and crushed her. Then this year they predicted that Sanders would only win one state, lol. Trump is going to crush her in November.

[/b]

I wouldn't say that much.   Posters on here are gone bat Sh#$ crazy with overrating Hillary though.  If Trump can add discipline to his campaign while still maintain the "tell it like it is" meme he could really win this thing.  

Well, I can tell you for sure that my views on November revolve around Trump being extraordinarily weak and vulnerable, not Hillary being strong. I would like to believe there are at least a handful of users here that share a similar opinion. I invest a lot of attention in the data, and it is absolutely terrible for Trump, so I am just being practical about it.

Though, ironically, I tend to say the same thing about Trump supporters or even Trump dreamers here: You are overrating Trump and overlooking serious deficiencies, writing off his constant offensive gaffes, flip-flops and lies as if they does not mean anything to anybody. In addition to that, some people here also underestimate how difficult winning is when you unite and energize 30% (minorities) of the electorate against you right off the bat.